Etkili Yardım Politikası ve Devletlerarası Çatışma

Year 2017, , 83 - 102, 01.01.2017

Omer F. Orsun

https://doi.org/10.20991/allazimuth.285098

Abstract

Dış yardım ve askeri çatışma arasındaki bağlantı, hem yardımların etkinliği hem de
devletlerarası çatışma araştırmalarında pek az ilgi görmüştür. Bu çalışma, yardım alan devletler
arasındaki devletlerarası çatışmalara dış yardımın etkisinin bir analizini sunmaktadır. Bunu
yaparken, devletin kara kutusunu açarak yardım etkinliği literatüründeki önceki araştırmaları
ve çatışma literatüründeki uyarma sürecini esas almaktadır. Önceki araştırmalar, yardımların
vatandaşların refah düzeyini yükseltmeye yönelik etkinliğinin demokratik kurumların
varlığına bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu makale, bu koşullu ilişkinin kriz görüşmeleri üzerinde negatif bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Dış yardımlar, demokratik rejimlerde bir
yandan vatandaşların refah düzeyini arttırırken bir yandan da hükümetlerin yeniden seçilme
şanslarını artırmaktadır. Öte yandan, dış yardımlar, seçmenin geri çekilme durumunda
hükümete vereceği cezaları azaltmakta ve hükümetin rakiplerine bu cezalardan kaçınma
eğiliminin fazlalığına dayanarak göndereceği mesajların gücünü azaltmaktadır. 1961’den
2001’e kadarki tüm ikililerin incelenmesi, bu görüşü desteklemektedir. Yardım girdileri
arttıkça, demokratik hükümetlerin tehditlerine karşı gösterilen direnç eğilimi, otokrat
hükümetler tarafından yapılan tehditlerden istatistiksel olarak ayırt edilemez hale gelmektedir.
Dahası, aldıkları dış yardımları dikkate alırsak, demokratik devletlerin, demokratik olmayan
devletlerarası ilişkilere kıyasla birbirlerine karşı daha fazla barış eğilimi içinde olmadıkları
görülmektedir.

Keywords

demokrasi, dış yardım etkili, seçem maliyetleri, devletlerarası çatışma

The Politics of Effective Aid and Interstate Conflict

Abstract

The link
between foreign aid and military conflict has received little attention in both
aid effectiveness and interstate conflict research. This study provides a
first-cut analysis of the impact of foreign aid on interstate conflict among
recipient countries. In doing so, it opens the black box of state and builds on
the previous research in the aid effectiveness literature and on the signaling
processes in the conflict literature. Previous research indicates that the
effectiveness of aid in improving citizen welfare is conditional on the
presence of democratic institutions. This study shows that this conditional
relationship has a detrimental effect on crisis bargaining outcomes. Foreign
aid, on the one hand, increases citizen welfare in democratic regimes; hence,
also governments’ ex-ante re-election prospects. On the other hand, foreign aid
retards government ability to generate audience costs and to send informative
signals to their opponents. Analyzing all dyads from 1961 to 2001 yields robust
support for this view. As aid inflows increase, targets’ resistance propensity
against threats issued by democratic governments becomes statistically
indistinguishable from threats issued by autocratic governments. Moreover,
democratic states are not significantly more peaceful to each other than
non-democratic pairs once we take into account the amount of foreign aid they
receive.

Keywords

Democracy, aid effectiveness, audience costs

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