Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi’nin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi: Türkiye Örneği
Yıl 2017,
, 115 - 126, 30.06.2017
İpek Yurttagüler
,
Sinem Kutlu
Öz
Çevresel kalite ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin kavranması iktisatçıların artan biçimde ilgisini çekmektedir. Söz konusu ilişki üzerine literatür Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi (ÇKE) hipotezinin test edilmesine odaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, gelir ve CO2 emisyonu arasındaki ilişkiyi zaman serisi analizi kullanarak Türkiye için test etmektir. ÇKE’nin geçerliliği 1960-2011 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak Johansen Eşbütünleşme testi ile araştırılmaktadır. Zaman serisi analizimizin sonuçları gelir ve CO2 emisyonu arasında eşbütünleşik bir ilişkinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar ayrıca bu değişkenler arasında N-biçiminde bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir ki, bu da söz konusu veri setinin ÇKE hipotezini desteklemediğine işaret etmektedir.
Kaynakça
- Akbostancı, E., Aşık, S. T. & Tunç, G. İ. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?. Energy Policy, 37, 861–867.
- Başar, S. & Temurlenk, M. S. (2007). Çevreye Uyarlanmış Kuznets Eğrisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 1-12.
- Brooks, Chris. (2002). Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Cole, M. A., Rayner A. J. & Bates J. M. (1997). The environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical analysis. Environment and Development Economics, 2, 401-416.
- Dinda, S. (2004). Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey, Ecological Economics, 49, 431– 455.
- Erataş, F. & Uysal, D. (2014). Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Yaklaşımının “BRICT” Ülkeleri Kapsamında Değerlendirilmesi. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 64(1), 1–25.
- Erol, E. D., Erataş, F. & Nur, H. B. (2013). Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi’nin Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerindeki Geçerliliği: Panel Veri Analizi. The Journal of Academic Social Science, 1(1), 400–415.
- Everett, T., Ishwaran, M., Ansaloni, G. P. & Rubin, A. (2010, March). Economic Growth and the Environment. Defra Evidence and Analysis Series, Paper 2.
- Grossman, G. M. & Krueger, A. B. (1991, November). Environmental Impacts of A North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Papers Series No. 3914.
- Grossman, G. & Kreuger A. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly of Journal Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
- Gujarati, D.N. (2004). Basic econometrics (Fourth ed.), New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
- Halıcıoğlu, F. (2008, November). An Econometric Study of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Income and Foreign Trade in Turkey. MPRA Paper No. 11457.
- Johansen, S. & Juselius K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
- Kutner, M. H., Nachtsheim C. J., Neter J. & W. Li. (2004). Applied Linear Statistical Models, Boston: McGraw Hill.
- Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.
- Martino, R. & Nguyen-Van, P. (2016). Environmental Kuznets Curve and Environmental Convergence: A Unified Empirical Framework for CO2. BETA Working Paper No.18.
- McLamb, E. (2011, September 18). The Ecological Impact of the Industrial Revolution. http://www.ecology.com/2011/09/18/ecological-impact-industrial-revolution/(Date Accessed, 1 November 2016).
- Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. & Behrens, W.W. (1972). The Limits to Growth, New York: Universe Books.
- OECD (2001), Glossary of Statistical Terms. https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1730 (Date Accessed, 28 October 2016).
- Panayotou, T. (1993, January). Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development. ILO World Employment Programme Research Working Paper No. 238.
- Panayotou, T. (1997). Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool. Environment and Development Economics, 2, 465-484.
- Panayotou, T. (2003). Economic Growth And The Environment. Economic Survey of Europe, No. 2, 45-72.
- Saatçi, M. & Dumrul, Y. (2011). Çevre Kirliliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisinin Türk Ekonomisi İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Eş-Bütünleşme Yöntemiyle Tahmini. Erciyes Üniversitesi İ. İ.B. F. Dergisi, 37, 65–86.
- Selden, M. T. & D. Song. (1994). Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution?. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27, 147-162.
- Shafik, N. (1994). Economic development and environmental quality: an econometric analysis. Oxford Economic Papers, 46, 757-73.
- Shafik, N. & Bandyopadhyay, S. (1992, June). Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: Time- Series and Cross-Country Evidence. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 904.
- Sweeney, J. L. (2004). Economics of Energy. Volume 4.9, Article 48, 1-29.
An Econometric Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve: The Case of Turkey
Yıl 2017,
, 115 - 126, 30.06.2017
İpek Yurttagüler
,
Sinem Kutlu
Öz
Understanding the relationship between the environmental quality and economic growth has increasingly attracted the attention of economists. The literature on this relationship focuses on testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between income and the CO2 emission by using time series analysis for Turkey. The validity of the EKC is investigated by the Johansen cointegration test using the data for the time period 1960-2011. The results of our time series analysis suggest a cointegrating relationship between income and the CO2 emission. The results also indicate an N-shaped relationship between these variables, which in turn imply that the EKC hypothesis is not supported by this data set.
Kaynakça
- Akbostancı, E., Aşık, S. T. & Tunç, G. İ. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?. Energy Policy, 37, 861–867.
- Başar, S. & Temurlenk, M. S. (2007). Çevreye Uyarlanmış Kuznets Eğrisi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 21(1), 1-12.
- Brooks, Chris. (2002). Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
- Cole, M. A., Rayner A. J. & Bates J. M. (1997). The environmental Kuznets curve: an empirical analysis. Environment and Development Economics, 2, 401-416.
- Dinda, S. (2004). Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis: A Survey, Ecological Economics, 49, 431– 455.
- Erataş, F. & Uysal, D. (2014). Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Yaklaşımının “BRICT” Ülkeleri Kapsamında Değerlendirilmesi. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 64(1), 1–25.
- Erol, E. D., Erataş, F. & Nur, H. B. (2013). Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi’nin Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomilerindeki Geçerliliği: Panel Veri Analizi. The Journal of Academic Social Science, 1(1), 400–415.
- Everett, T., Ishwaran, M., Ansaloni, G. P. & Rubin, A. (2010, March). Economic Growth and the Environment. Defra Evidence and Analysis Series, Paper 2.
- Grossman, G. M. & Krueger, A. B. (1991, November). Environmental Impacts of A North American Free Trade Agreement. NBER Working Papers Series No. 3914.
- Grossman, G. & Kreuger A. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The Quarterly of Journal Economics, 110(2), 353-377.
- Gujarati, D.N. (2004). Basic econometrics (Fourth ed.), New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
- Halıcıoğlu, F. (2008, November). An Econometric Study of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Income and Foreign Trade in Turkey. MPRA Paper No. 11457.
- Johansen, S. & Juselius K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
- Kutner, M. H., Nachtsheim C. J., Neter J. & W. Li. (2004). Applied Linear Statistical Models, Boston: McGraw Hill.
- Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. American Economic Review, 45(1), 1-28.
- Martino, R. & Nguyen-Van, P. (2016). Environmental Kuznets Curve and Environmental Convergence: A Unified Empirical Framework for CO2. BETA Working Paper No.18.
- McLamb, E. (2011, September 18). The Ecological Impact of the Industrial Revolution. http://www.ecology.com/2011/09/18/ecological-impact-industrial-revolution/(Date Accessed, 1 November 2016).
- Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J. & Behrens, W.W. (1972). The Limits to Growth, New York: Universe Books.
- OECD (2001), Glossary of Statistical Terms. https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=1730 (Date Accessed, 28 October 2016).
- Panayotou, T. (1993, January). Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Stages of Economic Development. ILO World Employment Programme Research Working Paper No. 238.
- Panayotou, T. (1997). Demystifying the environmental Kuznets curve: turning a black box into a policy tool. Environment and Development Economics, 2, 465-484.
- Panayotou, T. (2003). Economic Growth And The Environment. Economic Survey of Europe, No. 2, 45-72.
- Saatçi, M. & Dumrul, Y. (2011). Çevre Kirliliği ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisinin Türk Ekonomisi İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Eş-Bütünleşme Yöntemiyle Tahmini. Erciyes Üniversitesi İ. İ.B. F. Dergisi, 37, 65–86.
- Selden, M. T. & D. Song. (1994). Environmental quality and development: is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution?. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27, 147-162.
- Shafik, N. (1994). Economic development and environmental quality: an econometric analysis. Oxford Economic Papers, 46, 757-73.
- Shafik, N. & Bandyopadhyay, S. (1992, June). Economic Growth and Environmental Quality: Time- Series and Cross-Country Evidence. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 904.
- Sweeney, J. L. (2004). Economics of Energy. Volume 4.9, Article 48, 1-29.