Algılanan Yolsuzluk ile Dış Ticaret ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Arasındaki İlişkinin Uluslararası Endeksler Bağlamında Ekonometrik Analizi

Öz

Yolsuzluğun tarihsel süreçte ekonomik bir soruna dönüşümünün, bununla birlikte dış ekonomik ilişkilerin (dış ticaret ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım) yolsuzluk üzerinde yarattığı etkilerin ortaya çıkarılması çalışmanın amacını oluşturmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda algılanan yolsuzluğu ölçmek amacıyla kullanılan ICRG-Corruption (International Country Risk Guide) ve CPI (Corruption Perception Index) endeksleri ile dış ticaret ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi panel veri analizi ile değerlendirilmektedir. Analiz kapsamında ülkeler, Dünya Bankası'nın 2017 gelir sınıflamasına göre dört temel kategoride değerlendirilmektedir. ICRG endeksi için kurulan modelde düşük gelirli ülkeler anlamlı bulunmuştur. Bu ülkelerde, ihracatın artması, yolsuzluğun artmasına neden olmaktadır. Düşük-orta gelirli ülkelerde ithalatta artış yolsuzluğa neden olurken, ihracatta artış orta-yüksek gelirli ülkelerde yolsuzluğa neden olmaktadır. Gümrük vergilerinin etkisini değerlendirmek için 2003-2015 döneminde kategorize edilmeyen 60 ülke için kurulan ICRG ve CPI modelleri önemli sonuçlar ortaya koymaktadır. Her iki modelde de ihracatın artmasının yolsuzluğu azalttığı, gümrük vergilerindeki artışların ise yolsuzluğu arttığı görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yolsuzluk,Panel Veri Analizi,Uluslararası Ticaret,Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım

The Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Perceived Corruption, Foreign Trade and Foreign Direct Investment in the Context of International Indices

Abstract

The aim of this study is to reveal the transformation of corruption into an economic problem in the historical process and the effects of international economic relations (foreign trade and foreign direct investment) on corruption. In accordance with this purpose, the relationship between perceived corruption, measured by ICRG and CPI indices, and foreign trade and foreign direct investment is evaluated through panel data analysis. Within the scope of analysis, the countries are evaluated in four basic categories according to 2017 income classification of the World Bank. The model established for the ICRG index is found significant in low-income countries. In these countries, increase in exports causes increase the corruption. In low-middle income countries increase in imports reduces the corruption while increase in exports causes increasing the corruption in high-middle income countries. In order to assess the impact of the customs duties ICRG and CPI models for the 60 countries that aren’t categorized in 2003-2015 periods have significant results. In both models, it is seen that increase in exports decreases the corruption while increase in customs duties rates increase the corruption.

Keywords

• Corruption,Panel Data Analysis,International Trade,Foreign Direct Investment

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