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Money- Physical Capital Nexus: How Valid Is McKinnon Complementarity Hypothesis In Turkish Economy?

Yıl 2014, Cilt 2, Sayı 2, 2014, 1 - 12, 31.12.2014
https://doi.org/10.17093/aj.2014.2.2.5000084652

Öz

According to theory of financial liberalization that emphasizes money and physical capital complementarity, increase in real interest rate following liberalization leads to money demand and investment. Validity of this assumption, which is also known as McKinnon complementarity hypothesis, has been tested empirically for various countries undertaken financial liberalization policies. These empirical works shape the policies of countries with regard to their money demand, interest rate and investment. This study investigates the nexus between money demand, interest rate and investment size in Turkey by employing Bound test and ARDL approach over the period 1988Q1-2013Q4. Empirical analysis of this study hints that there is a limited complementary relationship between money and physical capital in Turkish economy.

Kaynakça

  • AKHTAR, M. A. (1974), “The Demand for Money in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Volume: 14, No. 2, s. 249-257.
  • DENİZER, C., DESAI, R.M. ve GUEORGUIEV, N. (1988), “The Political Economy of Financial Repression in Transition Economies”, Working Paper: The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, Yayın No. 2030.
  • DICKEY, D. A. ve FULLER, W. A. (1979), “Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume: 74, No: 366, s. 427-431.
  • ENGLE, R. F. ve GRANGER C.W.J. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, Volume: 55, No: 2, s. 251-276.
  • FRY, M.J. (1978), “Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume: 10, No: 4, s. 464-475.
  • FRY, M. J. (1979), “The Cost of Financial Repression in Turkey”, Saving and Development, Volume: 3, No: 2, s. 127-135.
  • FRY, M. J.(1989), “Financial Development: Theories and Recent Experience”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume: 5, No: 4, s. 13-28.
  • GUJARATI, D.(2004), Temel Ekonometri, Literatür Yayıncılık: İstanbul.
  • HARRIS, J.W. (1979), “An Empirical Note on the Investment Content of Real Output and the Demand for Money in the Developing Economy”, Malayan Economic Review, Volume: 24, s. 49-59.
  • HEPSAĞ A. (2009), “McKinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Sınanması: Türkiye Örneği”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, Volume: 3, No:1, s.63-80.
  • IŞIK, S., H., DOĞAN ve C., KADILAR (2005), “Ekonomik Büyümede Para ve Fiziki Sermaye: McKinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi’nin Türkiye için Testi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Volume: 233, s. 37–51.
  • KAR, M. ve E. PENTECOST (2000), “A System Test of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis with an Application to Turkey”, Loughborough University, Department of Economics, Economic Research Paper, No: 00/26.
  • KHAN, A.H. ve L. HASAN. (1998), “Financial Liberalisation, Savings and Economic Development in Pakistan,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume: 46, s. 581-597.
  • LAUMAS, P.S. (1990), “Monetisation, Financial Liberalisation and Economic Development,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume: 38, s. 377-390.
  • MCKINNON, R.I. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington DC: The Brookings Institution
  • MOLHO, L. (1986), “Interest Rate, Savings and Investment in Developing Countries: A re-examination of the McKinnon-Shaw Hypothesis”, IMF Staff Papers, Volume: 33, No: 1, s. 90-111.
  • MOORE, T.. (2009), “A Critical Appraisal of McKinnon’s Complementary Hypothesis: Does the Real Rate of Return on Money Matter for Investment in Developing Countries?” Brunel University, Economics and Finance Working Paper, No:09/11.
  • NATKE, P. A.. (1999), “Financial Repression and Firm Sself-financing of Investment: Empirical Evidence from Brazil”, Applied Economics, Volume: 31, s. 1009–1019.
  • ODHİAMBO, N. M.. (2004), “Money and Physical Capital are Complementary in Kenya”, International Economic Journal, Volume: 18, s. 65-78.
  • ÖZŞAHİN, Ş. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal Liberalizasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Etkileşimi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Konya.
  • PENTECOST, E. J. ve T. MOORE (2006), “Financial Liberalization in India and a New Test of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume: 54, s. 487-502.
  • PESARAN, H., Y. SHIN ve R. SMITH (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume: 16, No: 3, s. 289-326.
  • PESARAN, H. ve Y. SHIN (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, (Editör: Steinar Storm). Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, s. 371-413.
  • PHILLIPS, P. ve P. PERRON (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrica, Volume: 75, No: 2, s. 335-346
  • SHAW, E. S.. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York: Oxford University Press
  • THORNTON, J. ve S.R. Poudyal. (1990), “Money and Capital in Economic Development: A Test of the McKinnon Hypothesis for Nepal”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume: 22, s. 395-399.
  • TOBIN, J. (1965). “Money and Economic Growth”, Econometrica, Volume: 33, No: 4, s. 671-684
  • WATSON, P.K. (1992), “Savings, Rates of Interest and Growth in a Small Open Economy: The Trinidad and Tobago Experience”, Social and Economic Studies, Volume: 41, s. 1-24.
  • WILLIAMSON, J. ve M. MAHAR (2002). Finansal Liberalizasyon Üzerine Bir İnceleme, Ankara: Liberte Yayınları.
  • ZİVOT E. ve J. WANG (2006), Modelling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS, Second Edition. Springer Publishing

PARA VE FİZİKİ SERMAYE İLİŞKİSİ: MCKİNNON TAMAMLAYICILIK HİPOTEZİ TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN NE KADAR GEÇERLİ?

Yıl 2014, Cilt 2, Sayı 2, 2014, 1 - 12, 31.12.2014
https://doi.org/10.17093/aj.2014.2.2.5000084652

Öz

Para ve fiziki sermaye arasında tamamlayıcılık ilişkisine vurgu yapan finansal liberalizasyon teorisine göre serbestleşme uygulamaları sonucu yükselen reel faiz oranları, para talebi ve yatırımlarda artışa yol açacaktır. Literatürde McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezi olarak da isimlendirilen bu hipotezin geçerliliği, finansal liberalizasyon politikalarını hayata geçiren pek çok ülkede yapılan ampirik testlerle sınanmış ve bu doğrultuda para talebi, faiz oranı ve yatırım hacmi arasındaki ilişki tayin edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, 1998-2013 dönemi için çeyrek dönemli verilerle Türkiye’de para ve fiziki sermaye arasındaki mevcut ilişki, sınır testi ve ARDL yöntemi aracılığıyla araştırılmıştır. Ampirik analiz sonucu elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye ekonomisinde para ve fiziki sermaye arasında sınırlı bir tamamlayıcılık ilişkisi olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • AKHTAR, M. A. (1974), “The Demand for Money in Pakistan”, The Pakistan Development Review, Volume: 14, No. 2, s. 249-257.
  • DENİZER, C., DESAI, R.M. ve GUEORGUIEV, N. (1988), “The Political Economy of Financial Repression in Transition Economies”, Working Paper: The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, Yayın No. 2030.
  • DICKEY, D. A. ve FULLER, W. A. (1979), “Distribution of The Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Volume: 74, No: 366, s. 427-431.
  • ENGLE, R. F. ve GRANGER C.W.J. (1987), “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, Volume: 55, No: 2, s. 251-276.
  • FRY, M.J. (1978), “Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Development”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume: 10, No: 4, s. 464-475.
  • FRY, M. J. (1979), “The Cost of Financial Repression in Turkey”, Saving and Development, Volume: 3, No: 2, s. 127-135.
  • FRY, M. J.(1989), “Financial Development: Theories and Recent Experience”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Volume: 5, No: 4, s. 13-28.
  • GUJARATI, D.(2004), Temel Ekonometri, Literatür Yayıncılık: İstanbul.
  • HARRIS, J.W. (1979), “An Empirical Note on the Investment Content of Real Output and the Demand for Money in the Developing Economy”, Malayan Economic Review, Volume: 24, s. 49-59.
  • HEPSAĞ A. (2009), “McKinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Sınanması: Türkiye Örneği”, BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar Dergisi, Volume: 3, No:1, s.63-80.
  • IŞIK, S., H., DOĞAN ve C., KADILAR (2005), “Ekonomik Büyümede Para ve Fiziki Sermaye: McKinnon Tamamlayıcılık Hipotezi’nin Türkiye için Testi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans, Volume: 233, s. 37–51.
  • KAR, M. ve E. PENTECOST (2000), “A System Test of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis with an Application to Turkey”, Loughborough University, Department of Economics, Economic Research Paper, No: 00/26.
  • KHAN, A.H. ve L. HASAN. (1998), “Financial Liberalisation, Savings and Economic Development in Pakistan,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume: 46, s. 581-597.
  • LAUMAS, P.S. (1990), “Monetisation, Financial Liberalisation and Economic Development,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume: 38, s. 377-390.
  • MCKINNON, R.I. (1973), Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington DC: The Brookings Institution
  • MOLHO, L. (1986), “Interest Rate, Savings and Investment in Developing Countries: A re-examination of the McKinnon-Shaw Hypothesis”, IMF Staff Papers, Volume: 33, No: 1, s. 90-111.
  • MOORE, T.. (2009), “A Critical Appraisal of McKinnon’s Complementary Hypothesis: Does the Real Rate of Return on Money Matter for Investment in Developing Countries?” Brunel University, Economics and Finance Working Paper, No:09/11.
  • NATKE, P. A.. (1999), “Financial Repression and Firm Sself-financing of Investment: Empirical Evidence from Brazil”, Applied Economics, Volume: 31, s. 1009–1019.
  • ODHİAMBO, N. M.. (2004), “Money and Physical Capital are Complementary in Kenya”, International Economic Journal, Volume: 18, s. 65-78.
  • ÖZŞAHİN, Ş. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Finansal Liberalizasyon ve Ekonomik Büyüme Etkileşimi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Konya.
  • PENTECOST, E. J. ve T. MOORE (2006), “Financial Liberalization in India and a New Test of McKinnon’s Complementarity Hypothesis”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume: 54, s. 487-502.
  • PESARAN, H., Y. SHIN ve R. SMITH (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationship”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Volume: 16, No: 3, s. 289-326.
  • PESARAN, H. ve Y. SHIN (1999), “An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”, (Editör: Steinar Storm). Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, s. 371-413.
  • PHILLIPS, P. ve P. PERRON (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrica, Volume: 75, No: 2, s. 335-346
  • SHAW, E. S.. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York: Oxford University Press
  • THORNTON, J. ve S.R. Poudyal. (1990), “Money and Capital in Economic Development: A Test of the McKinnon Hypothesis for Nepal”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Volume: 22, s. 395-399.
  • TOBIN, J. (1965). “Money and Economic Growth”, Econometrica, Volume: 33, No: 4, s. 671-684
  • WATSON, P.K. (1992), “Savings, Rates of Interest and Growth in a Small Open Economy: The Trinidad and Tobago Experience”, Social and Economic Studies, Volume: 41, s. 1-24.
  • WILLIAMSON, J. ve M. MAHAR (2002). Finansal Liberalizasyon Üzerine Bir İnceleme, Ankara: Liberte Yayınları.
  • ZİVOT E. ve J. WANG (2006), Modelling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS, Second Edition. Springer Publishing
Toplam 30 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Gülbahar Üçler

Şerife Özşahin

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2014
Gönderilme Tarihi 2 Ocak 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014 Cilt 2, Sayı 2, 2014

Kaynak Göster

APA Üçler, G., & Özşahin, Ş. (2014). Money- Physical Capital Nexus: How Valid Is McKinnon Complementarity Hypothesis In Turkish Economy?. Alphanumeric Journal, 2(2), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.17093/aj.2014.2.2.5000084652

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