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POVERTY AND MCKINNON'S COMPLEMENTARY HYPOTHESIS IN N 11 COUNTRIES: PANEL CAUSES ANALYSIS

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4, 81 - 104, 27.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1224768

Öz

The current study aims to test the effect of "McKinnon's complementarity hypothesis" advocated by McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) on poverty for N11 countries and to reveal the results. The McKinnon complementarity hypothesis questions the relationships between money demand, investments, and real interest rates. The study sample comprises the N11 countries' 2000-2020 data. The study analyzed the period between 2000 and 2020 using Gengenbach et al. (2016) panel cointegration and DOLS-MG estimator. Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) Granger causality test analysis were applied for the short-term causality relationship between the variables. Panel cointegration test results showed cointegrated variables in the long run. According to DOLS-MG estimation results, financial deepening positively affects human development in the long run. In conclusion, the study has revealed that increasing financial deepening in the long term contributes to human development and poverty reduction in some N11 countries such as Turkiye, South Korea, and Pakistan. In the short run, while financial deepening and human development in Indonesia have a reciprocal causal relationship, financial growth in Turkiye and Vietnam has a one-way causal relationship to human development. The study found that the McKinnon Hypothesis was valid. For other countries, the causality test results were insignificant.

Kaynakça

  • Abdin, J. (2016). Financial development and poverty reduction: Exploring the links between the issues using evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Financial Research, 7(4), 44-65.
  • Abosedra, S., Fakih, A., Ghosh, S., & Kanjila, K., (2023). Financial development and business cycle volatility next in the UAE: Evidence from non-linear regime shift and asymmetric tests. Int J Fin Econ, 28, 2729-2741.
  • Abosedra, S., Shahbaz, M., & Nawaz, K. (2016). Modeling causality between financial deepening and poverty reduction in Egypt. Social Indicators Research, 126, 955-969. doi: 10.1007/s11205-015-0929-2
  • Abramova, M., Artemenko , D., & Krinichansky, K. (2022). Transmission channels between financial deepening and economic growth: Econometric analysis comprising monetary factors. Mathematics, 10(242), 2-27. doi: 10.3390/math10020242
  • Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qarn, A. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, 887–898. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.02.001
  • Aghion, P., & Bolton, P. (1997). A Theory of trickle-down growth and development. The Review of Economic Studies, 64(2), 151-172.
  • Akkay, R. (2010). Gelişmekte olan piyasalarda finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
  • Ang, J. (2008). A survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22(3), 536-576. Arcand, J., Berkes, E., & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance? Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 105-148. doi: 10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2.
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  • Balassa, B. (1990). Financial liberalization in developing countries. Studies in Comparative International Development, 25, 56-70. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(82)90095-1
  • Bandiera, G., Caprio, G., Honohan, P., & Schianta, F. (2000). Does financial reform raise or reduce saving? Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2), 239-263.
  • Barro, R. (2000). Inequality and growth in a panel of countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 5-32.
  • Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28, 423-442. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9.
  • Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 261-300. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00017-9
  • Belen, M., & Karamelikli, H. (2016). Finansal gelişme ve yoksulluğun azalması arasındaki ilişki: Ampirik bir inceleme. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(1), 125-141. doi: 10.11616/basbed.vi.455783
  • Best, A., Francis, B., & Robinson, C. (2017). Financial deepening and economic growth in Jamaica. Global Business Review, 18(1), 1-18. doi: 10.1177/0972150916666744
  • Bolarinwa, S., Adegboye, A., & Vo, X. (2021). Is there a nonlinear relationship between financial development and poverty in Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(7), 1245-1266. doi: 10.1108/JES-10-2019-0486
  • Cecchetti, S., & Kharroubi, E. (2012). Reassessing the impact of finance on growth. BIS Working Paper No. 381.
  • Clark, G., Dixon, A., & Monk, A. (2013). Sovereign wealth funds. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Cruz, C. (2020). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence. Economía, 43(85), 47-64. doi: 10.18800/economia.202001.003
  • Dabla-Norris, E., Kochhar, K., Suphaphiphat, N., Ricka, F., Tsounta, E., & Tiwari, S. (2015). Causes and consequences of income inequality: A global perspective. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
  • Demetriades, P., & Rousseau , P. (2016). The changing face of financial development. Economics Letters, 141, 87-90. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.02.009
  • Doğanay, M., & Değer, M. (2017). Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracat ilişkisi: Panel veri eşbütünleşme analizleri (1996-2014). Çankırı Karatekin University İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 127-145. doi: 10.18074/ckuiibfd.345332
  • Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. University Library of Munich.
  • Eberhardta, M., & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. University of Oxford.
  • Ellahi, N. (2011). How development of finance contribute to poverty alleviation and growth: a time series application for Pakistan. African Journal of Business Management, 5(30), 12138-12143. doi: 10.5897/AJBM11.1623
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.018
  • Eschenbach, F. (2004). Finance and growth: A survey of the theoretical and empirical literature. Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute.
  • Fry, M. (1978). Money and capital or financial deepening in economic development? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10 (4), 464-475. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-08-024041-1.50014-4
  • Gençoğlu, P., Kuşkaya, S., & Büyüknalbant, T. (2020). Seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinde sağlık harcamalarının sürdürülebilirliğinin panel birim kök testleri ile değerlendirilmesi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 75 (4), 1283-1297. doi: 10.33630/ausbf.498440
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N 11 ÜLKELERİNDE YOKSULLUK VE MCKİNNON TAMAMLAYICILIK HİPOTEZİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4, 81 - 104, 27.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1224768

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı McKinnon (1973) ve Shaw (1973) tarafından ortaya konulan McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezini N11 ülkeleri için yoksulluk üzerinde etkisini test etmek ve sonuçlarını ortaya koymaktır. McKinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezi, para talebi, yatırımlar ve reel faizler arasındaki ilişkileri sorgulamaktadır. Çalışma örneklemi 2000-2020 döneminde N11 ülkelerine ait verilerden oluşturulmuştur. Araştırmada serilerin 2000-2020 arasındaki dönemi Gengenbach, Urbain ve Westerlund (2016) panel eşbütünleşme ve DOLS-MG tahmincileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki kısa dönem nedensellik ilişkisi ise Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) Granger nedensellik test analizi uygulanmıştır. Panel eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarında değişkenlerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermiştir. DOLS-MG tahmini sonuçlarına göre ise uzun dönemde finansal derinleşme insani gelişmeyi pozitif yönlü etkilemektedir. Çalışma sonucunda; uzun dönemde artan finansal derinleşme N11 ülkelerinden Türkiye, Güney Kore ve Pakistan’da insani gelişmeyi desteklemekte, yoksulluğun azaltılmasına katkı sağlamaktadır. Kısa dönemde ise Endonezya’da finansal derinleşme ve insani gelişme karşılıklı bir nedensellik ilişkisine sahipken, Türkiye ve Vietnam’da finansal gelişimin yaşanması kısa dönemde insani gelişmenin tek yönlü nedenselidir. McKinnon Hipotezinin geçerli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer ülkeler için ise nedensellik testi sonuçları anlamsız bulunmuştur.

Kaynakça

  • Abdin, J. (2016). Financial development and poverty reduction: Exploring the links between the issues using evidence from Bangladesh. International Journal of Financial Research, 7(4), 44-65.
  • Abosedra, S., Fakih, A., Ghosh, S., & Kanjila, K., (2023). Financial development and business cycle volatility next in the UAE: Evidence from non-linear regime shift and asymmetric tests. Int J Fin Econ, 28, 2729-2741.
  • Abosedra, S., Shahbaz, M., & Nawaz, K. (2016). Modeling causality between financial deepening and poverty reduction in Egypt. Social Indicators Research, 126, 955-969. doi: 10.1007/s11205-015-0929-2
  • Abramova, M., Artemenko , D., & Krinichansky, K. (2022). Transmission channels between financial deepening and economic growth: Econometric analysis comprising monetary factors. Mathematics, 10(242), 2-27. doi: 10.3390/math10020242
  • Abu-Bader, S., & Abu-Qarn, A. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: The Egyptian experience. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30, 887–898. doi: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2007.02.001
  • Aghion, P., & Bolton, P. (1997). A Theory of trickle-down growth and development. The Review of Economic Studies, 64(2), 151-172.
  • Akkay, R. (2010). Gelişmekte olan piyasalarda finansal gelişme ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul.
  • Ang, J. (2008). A survey of recent developments in the literature of finance and growth. Journal of Economic Surveys, 22(3), 536-576. Arcand, J., Berkes, E., & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance? Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 105-148. doi: 10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2.
  • Bagehot, W. (1873). A description of the money market (4. Baskı.). London: Henry S. King & Co.
  • Balassa, B. (1990). Financial liberalization in developing countries. Studies in Comparative International Development, 25, 56-70. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(82)90095-1
  • Bandiera, G., Caprio, G., Honohan, P., & Schianta, F. (2000). Does financial reform raise or reduce saving? Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2), 239-263.
  • Barro, R. (2000). Inequality and growth in a panel of countries. Journal of Economic Growth, 5(1), 5-32.
  • Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks and growth: Panel evidence. Journal of Banking & Finance, 28, 423-442. doi: 10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00408-9.
  • Beck, T., Levine, R., & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 261-300. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00017-9
  • Belen, M., & Karamelikli, H. (2016). Finansal gelişme ve yoksulluğun azalması arasındaki ilişki: Ampirik bir inceleme. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(1), 125-141. doi: 10.11616/basbed.vi.455783
  • Best, A., Francis, B., & Robinson, C. (2017). Financial deepening and economic growth in Jamaica. Global Business Review, 18(1), 1-18. doi: 10.1177/0972150916666744
  • Bolarinwa, S., Adegboye, A., & Vo, X. (2021). Is there a nonlinear relationship between financial development and poverty in Africa. Journal of Economic Studies, 48(7), 1245-1266. doi: 10.1108/JES-10-2019-0486
  • Cecchetti, S., & Kharroubi, E. (2012). Reassessing the impact of finance on growth. BIS Working Paper No. 381.
  • Clark, G., Dixon, A., & Monk, A. (2013). Sovereign wealth funds. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Cruz, C. (2020). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence. Economía, 43(85), 47-64. doi: 10.18800/economia.202001.003
  • Dabla-Norris, E., Kochhar, K., Suphaphiphat, N., Ricka, F., Tsounta, E., & Tiwari, S. (2015). Causes and consequences of income inequality: A global perspective. Washington: International Monetary Fund.
  • Demetriades, P., & Rousseau , P. (2016). The changing face of financial development. Economics Letters, 141, 87-90. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.02.009
  • Doğanay, M., & Değer, M. (2017). Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracat ilişkisi: Panel veri eşbütünleşme analizleri (1996-2014). Çankırı Karatekin University İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 127-145. doi: 10.18074/ckuiibfd.345332
  • Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. University Library of Munich.
  • Eberhardta, M., & Teal, F. (2010). Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. University of Oxford.
  • Ellahi, N. (2011). How development of finance contribute to poverty alleviation and growth: a time series application for Pakistan. African Journal of Business Management, 5(30), 12138-12143. doi: 10.5897/AJBM11.1623
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.018
  • Eschenbach, F. (2004). Finance and growth: A survey of the theoretical and empirical literature. Amsterdam and Rotterdam: Tinbergen Institute.
  • Fry, M. (1978). Money and capital or financial deepening in economic development? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 10 (4), 464-475. doi: 10.1016/B978-0-08-024041-1.50014-4
  • Gençoğlu, P., Kuşkaya, S., & Büyüknalbant, T. (2020). Seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinde sağlık harcamalarının sürdürülebilirliğinin panel birim kök testleri ile değerlendirilmesi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 75 (4), 1283-1297. doi: 10.33630/ausbf.498440
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J., & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error correction testing inpanels with common stochastic trends. Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 31, 982-1004. doi: 10.1002/jae.2475
  • Goldsmith, R. (1969). Financial structure and development. New Haven: Yale University Press.
  • Gurley, J., & Shaw, E. (1955). Financial aspects of economic development. The American Economic Review, 45 (4), 515-538.
  • Haan, J.D., Pleninger, R., & Sturm, J., (2022). Does financial development reduce the poverty gap? Social Indicators Research, 161, 1–27 doi: 10.1007/s11205-021-02705-8
  • Hamori, S., & Hashiguchi, Y. (2012). The effect of financial deepening on İnequality: Some international evidence. Journal of Asian Economics, 23 (4), 353-359. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2011.12.001
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  • Jalilian, H., & Kirkpatrick, C. (2002). Financial development and poverty reduction in developing countries. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 7(2), 97-108. doi: 10.1002/ijfe.179
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  • Khan, A., & Hasan, L. (1998). financial liberalization, savings, and economic development in Pakistan. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 46(3), 581-597.
  • Khan, R., Gill, A., & Noreen, S. (2012). Financial development and poverty in Pakistan: Causality Analysis. Archives Des Sciences,, 65(11), 223-233.
  • Kim, D., & Lin, S. (2011). nonlinearity in the financial development–ıncome ınequality nexus. Journal of Comparative Economics, 39 (3), 310-325. doi: 10.1016/j.jce.2011.07.002
  • King, R., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (3), 717-737.
  • Law, S., & Singh, N. (2014). Does too much finance harm economic growth? Journal of Banking & Finance, 41, 36-44. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.020
  • Law, S., Tan, H., & Azman-Saını, W. (2014). Financial development and income inequality at different levels of institutional quality. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 50 (1), 21-33. doi: 10.2753/REE1540-496X5001S102
  • Levine, R. (2004). Finance and growth: Theory and evidence. Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Levine, R., Loayza, N., & Beck, T. (2000). Financial intermediation and growth: Causality and causes. Journal of Monetary Economics, 46, 31-77. doi: 10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00017-9
  • Liang, Z. (2006). Financial development and income distribution: A system GMM panel analysis with application to urban China. Journal of Economic Development, 31(2), 1-21.
  • Loayza, N., Schmidt-Hebbel, K., & Serven, L. (2000). What drives private saving across the world? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2), 165-181.
  • Lucas, R. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3-42. doi: 10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7
  • Mckinnon, R. (1973). Money and capital in economic development. Washington: Brookings Institution.
  • Meier, G., & Seers, D. (1984). Pioneers in development (second series b.). New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Merton, R. (1988). Applications of Option-Pricing Theory: Twenty-Five Years Later. The American Economic Review, 88(3), 323- 349.
  • Miller, M. (1998). Financial markets and economic growth. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 11(3), 8-15. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-6622.1998.tb00498.x
  • Molho, L. (1986). Interest rates, saving, and investment in developing countries: A re-examination of the Mckinnon-Shaw hypotheses. Staff Papers, 33(1), 90-116.
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  • Nguyen, L., & Anwar, S. (2011). Fiscal decentralization and economic growth in Vietnam. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 16 (1), 3-14. doi: 10.1080/13547860.2011.539397
  • Odhiambo, M. (2009). Finance-growth-poverty nexus in South Africa: A dynamic causality linkages. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 38 (2), 320-325. doi: 10.1016/j.socec.2008.12.006
  • Odhiambo, N. (2010). Financial deepening and poverty reduction in Zambia: An empirical investigation. International Journal of Social Economics, 37 (1), 41-53. doi: 10.1108/03068291011006166
  • Orji, A., Ogbuabor, J., & Anthony-Orji, O. (2015). Financial liberalization and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical evidence. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3), 663-672.
  • Öztürk, N., Barışık, S., & Darıcı, H. (2020). Gelişmekte olan piyasalarda finansal derinleşme ve büyüme ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (12), 95-119.
  • Pedroni, P. (2001). Purchasing power parity tests in cointegrated panels. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4), 727-731.
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  • Shaw, E. (1973). Financial deepening in economic development. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Shi, Y., Paul, S., & Paramati, S. (2020). The impact of financial deepening on income inequality: Empirical evidence from Australia. International Journal of Finance, 27(3), 1-16. doi: 10.1002/ijfe.2338
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  • Stiglitz, J. (1998). The role of the state in financial markets. Washington: World Bank.
  • Stiglitz, J., & Weiss, A. (1981). Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information. The American Economic Review, 71 (3), 393-410.
  • Sugiyanto, C., & Yolanda, Z. (2020). The effect of financial deepenıng on economic growth, inequality, and poverty: Evidence from 73 countries. Southeast European Journal of Economics and Business, 15 (2), 15-27. doi: 10.2478/jeb-2020-0012
  • Tatoğlu, F. (2020). Panel zaman serileri analizi (3. Baskı b.). İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Üçler, G., & Özşahin, Ş. (2014). Para ve fiziki sermaye ilişkisi: Mckinnon tamamlayıcılık hipotezi Türkiye ekonomisi için ne kadar geçerli? Alphanumeric Journal, 2(2), 2-12.
  • Wilkins, R. (2015). Measuring income inequality in Australia. Australian Economic Review, 48 (1), 93-102.
  • Williams, K. (2019). Do political institutions improve the diminishing effect of financial deepening on growth? Evidence from developing countries. Journal of Economics and Business, 103, 13–24. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconbus.2018.11.003
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  • Yılmaz, Ö., & Akıncı, M. (2012). İktisadi büyüme ve makroekonomik belirleyicileri (1.Basım). Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
  • Zahonogo, P. (2017). Financial development and poverty in developing countries: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 9(1), 211-220.
  • Zhao, S., He, J., & Yang, H. (2018). Population ageing, financial deepening and economic growth: Evidence from China. Sustainability, 10, 2-15.
Toplam 90 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesileri
Yazarlar

Melahat Batu Ağırkaya 0000-0002-8703-5622

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Aralık 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Aralık 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 24 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Batu Ağırkaya, M. (2023). N 11 ÜLKELERİNDE YOKSULLUK VE MCKİNNON TAMAMLAYICILIK HİPOTEZİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 24(4), 81-104. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1224768

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