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TÜRKİYE’DE DEVLET BORCUNUN YURTİÇİ İLK GÜNAHI

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3, 347 - 362, 29.09.2024
https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1418749

Öz

Çalışma Türkiye’de kamu borcunun ilk günahını yurtiçi ilk günaha odaklanarak analiz etmektedir. Borç portföyünün yapısı, Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999) ilk günahı bir ülkenin uluslararası piyasada kendi parası cinsinden borçlanamaması olarak tanımlarken yurtiçi piyasada döviz cinsi borçlanma ise yurtiçi ilk günah olarak adlandırılmıştır (Eichengreen, Hausmann ve Panizza, 2003). Bu kapsamda borç portföyünün yapısı Eichengreen ve diğerleri (2003) tarafından geliştirilen göstergeler ve bunun literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan basitleştirilmiş versiyonu temel alınarak değerlendirilmiştir. Kamu borç portföyünün analizine dayanarak, Türkiye’de merkezi yönetim borç stokunun GSYH’ye oranının görece düşük olmasına rağmen yurtiçi ilk günahın tarihsel yüksek seviyelere ulaştığı ve kur uyumsuzluğunun önemli bir seviyede olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Arslanalp S, Drakopoulos D, Goel R, & Koepke R. (2020). Benchmark-driven investments in emerging market bond markets: taking stock (IMF Working Paper no. 20/192). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/09/25/Benchmark-Driven-Investments-in-Emerging-Market-Bond-Markets-Taking-Stock-49740
  • Balıbek, E. (2011). 2001 İç borç takası: nedenler, yöntem ve sonuçları. Maliye Dergisi, (160), 369-391.
  • Balıbek, E., & Memiş H. A. (2012). Turkish treasury simulation model for debt strategy analysis (Policy Research Working Paper 6091). Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/695701468319495784/pdf/WPS6091.pdf.
  • Bernaschi, M., Morea, R., Sarno, L., Tessseri, F., Verani, F., & Vergni, D. (2019). An integrated approach to cost-risk analysis in public debt management. Retrieved from https://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/debito_pubblico/pdm/An_Integrated_Approach_to_Cost-Risk_Analysis_in_Public_Debt_Management.pdf
  • Cangöz, M. C., & Balıbek E. (2012). Kamu borç yönetiminin genel çerçevesi: yeni eğilimler ve Türkiye’ye yansımaları. In M. C. Cangöz and E. Balıbek (Ed.) Hazine işlemleri ve çağdaş hazine yönetimi (pp. 17-44). Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2019). Borç yönetiminin kurumsal yapısı: Nereye gidiyoruz? (TEPAV Değerlendirme Notu No: N201929). Retrieved from https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10033
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2020). Dövizle iç borçlanmanın günahı (TEPAV Değerlendirme Notu No: N202039). Retrieved from https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10192
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2021). Düyun-u umumiyeden modern borç yönetimine: devlet borcunun kısa tarihi. In S. Uzunoğlu, G. Sönmezler, & İ.O. Gündüz (Ed.) Güncel ekonomik sorunlar: Borç çıkmazı. (pp. 1-32) Literatür Yayıncılık. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.8331158
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2022). Devletin borcu için dertlenmeli miyiz? (TEPAV Değerlendirme Notu No. N202227). Retrieved from https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10480
  • Danmarks National Bank. (2005). Danish government borrowing and debt 2005. Retrieved from https://www.nationalbanken.dk/media/kdybodjf/slog-05-uk-web.pdf
  • Eichengreen, B., & Hausmann, R. (1999). Exchange rates and financial fragility (NBER Working Paper No. 7418). doi: 10.3386/w7418
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2003). Currency mismatches, debt intolerance, and original sin: Why they are not the same and why it Matters (NBER Working Paper No. 10036). doi: 10.3386/w10036.
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2005). The pain of original sin. In B. Eichengreen and R Hausmann (Eds.) Other people’s money: Debt denomination and financial instability in emerging-market economies, (pp. 13–47). Chicago: University of Chicago Press
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2005b). The mystery of original sin. In B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann (Eds.) Other people’s money: Debt denomination and financial instability in emerging-market economies. (pp. 233–65). Chicago: University of Chicago Press
  • Eichengreen B, Hausmann R, & Panizza U (2007). Currency mismatches, debt intolerance, and the original sin: why they are not the same and why it matters. In Capital controls and capital flows in emerging economies: Policies, practices, and consequences (pp. 121–170). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2023). Yet it endures: The persistence of original sin. Open Econ Rev, 34, 1–42.
  • Engel, C., & Park, J. (2022). Debauchery and original Sin: The currency composition of sovereign debt. Journal of the European Economic Association, 20(3), 1095-1144. doi: 10.1093/jeea/jvac009
  • Gale, D. (1990). The efficient design of public debt. In R. Dornbusch and M. Draghi (Eds.) Public debt management: theory and history (pp. 14-47). Cambridge University Press.
  • Goldstein M, & Turner, P. (2004) Controlling currency mismatches in emerging markets. Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Gürcihan, B., & Yılmaz, E. (2007). Türkiye’de kamu borç stokunun yapısı: orijinal günah göstergeleri ve risk-dahil kamu borç yükü (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Yayını No 07/02). Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.
  • Hale G. B., Jones P.C., & Spiegel M.M. (2020). Home currency issuance in international bond markets. Journal of International Economics 122, 1-16. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103256
  • Han, B. (2023). Original sin dissipation and currency exposures in emerging markets. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4066583. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4066583
  • Hazine Müsteşarlığı. (2003). Kamu borç yönetimi raporu-Nisan 2003. Retrieved from https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2018/11/Kamu-Borç-Yönetim-Raporu-Nisan-2003.pdf
  • IMF & World Bank. (2001). Guidelines for public debt management. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/np/mae/pdebt/2000/eng/index.htm
  • IMF, & World Bank. (2014). Revised guidelines for public debt management (Policy Paper). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/040114.pdf
  • Melecky, M. (2007). Choosing the currency structure for sovereign debt: a review of current approaches (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 4246). Retrieved from https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/epdf/10.1596/1813-9450-4246
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (2018). Press release on the issuance of Euro-denominated government bonds and lease certificates. Retrieved from https://en.hmb.gov.tr/duyuru/euro-denominated-government-bond-and-lease-certificate-issuance-2
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (2022). Annual public debt management report. Retrieved from https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2022/12/2022-KBYR-TURKCE-4.pdf
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (n.d.) Monthly debt management reports. Retrieved from https://en.hmb.gov.tr/public-debt-management-reports#
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (n.d.) Public finance statistics. Retrieved from https://en.hmb.gov.tr/public-finance
  • OECD. (2005). Advances in risk management of government debt. Paris: OECD Publications.
  • OECD. (2018). OECD Sovereign borrowing outlook 2018. Paris: OECD Publications. https://doi.org/10.1787/sov_b_outlk-2018-en
  • Velandia, A., & Cabral, R. (2018). Why are more sovereigns issuing in Euros? choosing between USD and EUR-denominated bonds (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8324). Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=3113875
  • Wheeler, G. (2003). Sound practice in government debt management. The World Bank. Washington D.C. 2003.
  • World Bank. (2012). Golden growth: restoring the lustre of the European economic model. Main Report (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/539371468036253854/Main-report
  • World Bank. (2017). Government debt management: designing debt management strategies. Debt Management Learning and Training Notes: 1. The World Bank Treasury. Retrieved from https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/194071527797532524-0340022018/original/GDM1backgroundnotes.pdf

DOMESTIC ORIGINAL SIN OF SOVEREIGN DEBT IN TÜRKİYE

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3, 347 - 362, 29.09.2024
https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1418749

Öz

The study analyzes the original sin of sovereign debt in Türkiye with a focus on domestic original sin. Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999) define original sin as the inability of a country to borrow in its own currency in the international market, while the issuance of foreign currency debt in the domestic market is defined as domestic original sin (Eichengreen, Hausmann, and Panizza, 2003). In this context, the structure of the debt portfolio was evaluated based on the indicators developed by Eichengreen, et al. (2003) and its simplified version widely used in the literature. Based on the analysis of the sovereign debt portfolio, it has been concluded that although the debt stock to GDP ratio is relatively low in Türkiye, the domestic original sin has reached historically high levels and currency mismatch is significant.

Kaynakça

  • Arslanalp S, Drakopoulos D, Goel R, & Koepke R. (2020). Benchmark-driven investments in emerging market bond markets: taking stock (IMF Working Paper no. 20/192). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/09/25/Benchmark-Driven-Investments-in-Emerging-Market-Bond-Markets-Taking-Stock-49740
  • Balıbek, E. (2011). 2001 İç borç takası: nedenler, yöntem ve sonuçları. Maliye Dergisi, (160), 369-391.
  • Balıbek, E., & Memiş H. A. (2012). Turkish treasury simulation model for debt strategy analysis (Policy Research Working Paper 6091). Retrieved from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/695701468319495784/pdf/WPS6091.pdf.
  • Bernaschi, M., Morea, R., Sarno, L., Tessseri, F., Verani, F., & Vergni, D. (2019). An integrated approach to cost-risk analysis in public debt management. Retrieved from https://www.dt.mef.gov.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_it/debito_pubblico/pdm/An_Integrated_Approach_to_Cost-Risk_Analysis_in_Public_Debt_Management.pdf
  • Cangöz, M. C., & Balıbek E. (2012). Kamu borç yönetiminin genel çerçevesi: yeni eğilimler ve Türkiye’ye yansımaları. In M. C. Cangöz and E. Balıbek (Ed.) Hazine işlemleri ve çağdaş hazine yönetimi (pp. 17-44). Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2019). Borç yönetiminin kurumsal yapısı: Nereye gidiyoruz? (TEPAV Değerlendirme Notu No: N201929). Retrieved from https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10033
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2020). Dövizle iç borçlanmanın günahı (TEPAV Değerlendirme Notu No: N202039). Retrieved from https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10192
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2021). Düyun-u umumiyeden modern borç yönetimine: devlet borcunun kısa tarihi. In S. Uzunoğlu, G. Sönmezler, & İ.O. Gündüz (Ed.) Güncel ekonomik sorunlar: Borç çıkmazı. (pp. 1-32) Literatür Yayıncılık. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.8331158
  • Cangöz, M. C. (2022). Devletin borcu için dertlenmeli miyiz? (TEPAV Değerlendirme Notu No. N202227). Retrieved from https://www.tepav.org.tr/tr/haberler/s/10480
  • Danmarks National Bank. (2005). Danish government borrowing and debt 2005. Retrieved from https://www.nationalbanken.dk/media/kdybodjf/slog-05-uk-web.pdf
  • Eichengreen, B., & Hausmann, R. (1999). Exchange rates and financial fragility (NBER Working Paper No. 7418). doi: 10.3386/w7418
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2003). Currency mismatches, debt intolerance, and original sin: Why they are not the same and why it Matters (NBER Working Paper No. 10036). doi: 10.3386/w10036.
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2005). The pain of original sin. In B. Eichengreen and R Hausmann (Eds.) Other people’s money: Debt denomination and financial instability in emerging-market economies, (pp. 13–47). Chicago: University of Chicago Press
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2005b). The mystery of original sin. In B. Eichengreen and R. Hausmann (Eds.) Other people’s money: Debt denomination and financial instability in emerging-market economies. (pp. 233–65). Chicago: University of Chicago Press
  • Eichengreen B, Hausmann R, & Panizza U (2007). Currency mismatches, debt intolerance, and the original sin: why they are not the same and why it matters. In Capital controls and capital flows in emerging economies: Policies, practices, and consequences (pp. 121–170). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
  • Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., & Panizza, U. (2023). Yet it endures: The persistence of original sin. Open Econ Rev, 34, 1–42.
  • Engel, C., & Park, J. (2022). Debauchery and original Sin: The currency composition of sovereign debt. Journal of the European Economic Association, 20(3), 1095-1144. doi: 10.1093/jeea/jvac009
  • Gale, D. (1990). The efficient design of public debt. In R. Dornbusch and M. Draghi (Eds.) Public debt management: theory and history (pp. 14-47). Cambridge University Press.
  • Goldstein M, & Turner, P. (2004) Controlling currency mismatches in emerging markets. Washington, D.C.: Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Gürcihan, B., & Yılmaz, E. (2007). Türkiye’de kamu borç stokunun yapısı: orijinal günah göstergeleri ve risk-dahil kamu borç yükü (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Yayını No 07/02). Ankara: Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.
  • Hale G. B., Jones P.C., & Spiegel M.M. (2020). Home currency issuance in international bond markets. Journal of International Economics 122, 1-16. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2019.103256
  • Han, B. (2023). Original sin dissipation and currency exposures in emerging markets. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4066583. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4066583
  • Hazine Müsteşarlığı. (2003). Kamu borç yönetimi raporu-Nisan 2003. Retrieved from https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2018/11/Kamu-Borç-Yönetim-Raporu-Nisan-2003.pdf
  • IMF & World Bank. (2001). Guidelines for public debt management. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/np/mae/pdebt/2000/eng/index.htm
  • IMF, & World Bank. (2014). Revised guidelines for public debt management (Policy Paper). Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/040114.pdf
  • Melecky, M. (2007). Choosing the currency structure for sovereign debt: a review of current approaches (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 4246). Retrieved from https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/epdf/10.1596/1813-9450-4246
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (2018). Press release on the issuance of Euro-denominated government bonds and lease certificates. Retrieved from https://en.hmb.gov.tr/duyuru/euro-denominated-government-bond-and-lease-certificate-issuance-2
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (2022). Annual public debt management report. Retrieved from https://ms.hmb.gov.tr/uploads/2022/12/2022-KBYR-TURKCE-4.pdf
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (n.d.) Monthly debt management reports. Retrieved from https://en.hmb.gov.tr/public-debt-management-reports#
  • Ministry of Treasury and Finance. (n.d.) Public finance statistics. Retrieved from https://en.hmb.gov.tr/public-finance
  • OECD. (2005). Advances in risk management of government debt. Paris: OECD Publications.
  • OECD. (2018). OECD Sovereign borrowing outlook 2018. Paris: OECD Publications. https://doi.org/10.1787/sov_b_outlk-2018-en
  • Velandia, A., & Cabral, R. (2018). Why are more sovereigns issuing in Euros? choosing between USD and EUR-denominated bonds (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8324). Retrieved from https://ssrn.com/abstract=3113875
  • Wheeler, G. (2003). Sound practice in government debt management. The World Bank. Washington D.C. 2003.
  • World Bank. (2012). Golden growth: restoring the lustre of the European economic model. Main Report (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/539371468036253854/Main-report
  • World Bank. (2017). Government debt management: designing debt management strategies. Debt Management Learning and Training Notes: 1. The World Bank Treasury. Retrieved from https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/194071527797532524-0340022018/original/GDM1backgroundnotes.pdf
Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Maliye Politikası
Bölüm Derleme
Yazarlar

M. Coşkun Cangöz 0000-0003-3818-2893

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Eylül 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 12 Ocak 2024
Kabul Tarihi 27 Şubat 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Cangöz, M. C. (2024). DOMESTIC ORIGINAL SIN OF SOVEREIGN DEBT IN TÜRKİYE. Anadolu Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 25(3), 347-362. https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1418749

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