TÜRKİYE’DE DEVLET BORCUNUN YURTİÇİ İLK GÜNAHI

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 3, 347 - 362, 29.09.2024

M. Coşkun Cangöz

https://doi.org/10.53443/anadoluibfd.1418749

Öz

Çalışma Türkiye’de kamu borcunun ilk günahını yurtiçi ilk günaha odaklanarak analiz etmektedir. Borç portföyünün yapısı, Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999) ilk günahı bir ülkenin uluslararası piyasada kendi parası cinsinden borçlanamaması olarak tanımlarken yurtiçi piyasada döviz cinsi borçlanma ise yurtiçi ilk günah olarak adlandırılmıştır (Eichengreen, Hausmann ve Panizza, 2003). Bu kapsamda borç portföyünün yapısı Eichengreen ve diğerleri (2003) tarafından geliştirilen göstergeler ve bunun literatürde yaygın olarak kullanılan basitleştirilmiş versiyonu temel alınarak değerlendirilmiştir. Kamu borç portföyünün analizine dayanarak, Türkiye’de merkezi yönetim borç stokunun GSYH’ye oranının görece düşük olmasına rağmen yurtiçi ilk günahın tarihsel yüksek seviyelere ulaştığı ve kur uyumsuzluğunun önemli bir seviyede olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İlk Günah, Devlet Borcu, Döviz Kuru Riski

DOMESTIC ORIGINAL SIN OF SOVEREIGN DEBT IN TÜRKİYE

Öz

The study analyzes the original sin of sovereign debt in Türkiye with a focus on domestic original sin. Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999) define original sin as the inability of a country to borrow in its own currency in the international market, while the issuance of foreign currency debt in the domestic market is defined as domestic original sin (Eichengreen, Hausmann, and Panizza, 2003). In this context, the structure of the debt portfolio was evaluated based on the indicators developed by Eichengreen, et al. (2003) and its simplified version widely used in the literature. Based on the analysis of the sovereign debt portfolio, it has been concluded that although the debt stock to GDP ratio is relatively low in Türkiye, the domestic original sin has reached historically high levels and currency mismatch is significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Original Sin, Sovereign Debt, Exchange Rate Risk

Kaynakça

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