Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis

Ahmet Şekeroğlu; Rukiye Gizem Öztaş Karlı

doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1842184

Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis

Abstract

The acceleration of climate change is intensifying drought severity. Increasing drought conditions pose significant risks to agricultural lands and food security. The aim of this study is to determine the spatial exposure rate of agricultural land classes to drought conditions based on climate scenarios and different projection periods. In this study, a spatial analysis based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios was conducted using the HadGEM3-GC3.1, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR climate models. Assessments covering Türkiye’s Central Anatolia Region were conducted within a geographic information system (GIS)-based spatial modeling framework and encompass projections for the near future (2025-2040) and the end of the century (2081-2100). The findings indicate that under the end of the century SSP5-8.5 scenario, approximately 83-90% of the region may become semi-arid. Model results suggest that, by end of the century, the spatial exposure rate of the most productive agricultural lands, classified as prime agricultural lands and specialty crop lands, may reach a minimum of 76% under the SSP2 4.5 scenario and exceed 90% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This situation reveals a substantial risk to agricultural production and food security in the region. The coefficient of variation values support that the multi model results produce similar outcomes in terms of spatial distribution and consistency. These findings highlight the urgent need to rapidly develop drought-focused spatial strategies to ensure the sustainability of agricultural production in Central Anatolia Region. In this context, the scalable and transferable agricultural land class-drought oriented spatial exposure rate approach proposed in this study can be considered an important decision-support tool for policymakers.

Keywords

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English

Subjects

Agricultural Spatial Analysis and Modelling

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Ahmet Şekeroğlu ^*
0000-0003-0764-4944
Türkiye

Rukiye Gizem Öztaş Karlı
0000-0003-0999-418X
Türkiye

Publication Date

July 28, 2026

Submission Date

December 14, 2025

Acceptance Date

February 10, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 32 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1842184

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA43JG93WF

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Şekeroğlu, A., & Öztaş Karlı, R. G. (2026). Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 32(3), 628-644. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1842184

AMA

1.Şekeroğlu A, Öztaş Karlı RG. Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026;32(3):628-644. doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1842184

Chicago

Şekeroğlu, Ahmet, and Rukiye Gizem Öztaş Karlı. 2026. “Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32 (3): 628-44. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1842184.

EndNote

Şekeroğlu A, Öztaş Karlı RG (July 1, 2026) Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32 3 628–644.

IEEE

[1]A. Şekeroğlu and R. G. Öztaş Karlı, “Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis”, J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 628–644, July 2026, doi: 10.15832/ankutbd.1842184.

ISNAD

Şekeroğlu, Ahmet - Öztaş Karlı, Rukiye Gizem. “Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences 32/3 (July 1, 2026): 628-644. https://doi.org/10.15832/ankutbd.1842184.

JAMA

1.Şekeroğlu A, Öztaş Karlı RG. Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026;32:628–644.

MLA

Şekeroğlu, Ahmet, and Rukiye Gizem Öztaş Karlı. “Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis”. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 32, no. 3, July 2026, pp. 628-44, doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1842184.

Vancouver

1.Ahmet Şekeroğlu, Rukiye Gizem Öztaş Karlı. Spatial Assessment of Future Drought Risk in Agricultural Lands: A CMIP6-Based Analysis. J Agr Sci-Tarim Bili. 2026 Jul. 1;32(3):628-44. doi:10.15832/ankutbd.1842184