The September 26, 2019 Silivri Earthquake (Mw=5.6), NW Türkiye
Yıl 2023,
Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 65 - 75, 26.12.2023
Murat Utkucu
,
Fatih Uzunca
,
Yelçin Utkucu
,
Hatice Durmuş
,
Serap Kırım
Öz
The September 26, 2019 Silivri earthquake (MW=5.6-5.8) occurred along the North Anatolian Fault Zone segments extending beneath the Marmara Sea. In the present study the teleseismic P waveforms and 20-year long background seismicity of the earthquake (MW=5.6-5.8) have been analyzed. Point-source inversion of the teleseismic P waveforms revealed that the earthquake was due to oblique faulting and released a seismic moment of 3.2 x 1017 Nm (MW=5.6). The frequency-magnitude distributions (FMDs) for the background seismicity have been calculated for 5-year long time windows after the 1999 İzmit earthquake. The considerable decrease of b-value of the FMDs just before the 2019 Silivri earthquake has been interpreted as stress increase along the fault segments which provides a reasonable clue for the occurrence of the earthquake. The FMD distribution for the 5 year-long time windows before the 2019 Silivri earthquake suggests a recurrence time interval of 168 years and occurrence probability of %16 within the next 30 years for a Mw=7.5 earthquake.
Destekleyen Kurum
TUBİTAK
Teşekkür
This study was both funded by The Scientific and Technical Research Council of Türkiye (TÜBİTAK) (project number: 121Y271).
Kaynakça
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- N. Ambraseys. The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea Region over the last 2000 years, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 92, pp. 1-18, 2002.
- N. Ambraseys, Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: a multidisciplinary study of seismicity up to 1900, Cambridge University Press., ISBN: 978-0-521-87292-8, 2009.
- D. Kalafat, Y. Günes, M. Kara, P. Deniz, K. Kekovalı, S. H. Kuleli, L. Gülen, M. Yılmazer, and N. Özel, A revised and extended earthquake catalogue for Turkey since 1900 (M4.0), Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü, Bebek-İstanbul, 553 pp., 2007.
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- K. T. Rockwell, A. Barka, T. Dawson, H. S.Akyuz, K. Thorup, Paleoseismology of the Gazikoy-Saros segment of the North Antolia fault, Northwestern Turkey: Comparison of the historical and paleoseismic records, implications of regional seismic hazard, and models of earthquake recurrence, Journal of Seismology 5(3), 433-448. 2001. DOI:10.1023/A:1011435927983.
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- N. Palyvos, D. Pantosti, C. Zabci and G. D’Addezio, Paleoseismological evidence of recent earthquakes on the 1967 Mudurnu Valley Earthquake segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97, 5, 1646-1661, 2007.
- A. Kop, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, M. Kara and T. Y. Duman, Active tectonic and palaeoseismological features of the western section of Mustafakemalpaşa Fault; Bursa, NW Anatolia, Geodinamica Acta, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 363-378, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2016.1208525
- V. Özaksoy, H. Elmaci, Ö. Selim, K. Meryem and T.Y. Duman. Holocene activity of the Orhaneli Fault based on palaoseismological data, Bursa, NW Anatolia, Bull. Min. Res. Exp., 156: 1-16, 2018.
- A. Kürçer, S. Özalp,E. Özdemir, Ç. U. Güldoğan and T. Y. Duman. Active tectonic and paleoseismologic characteristics of the Yenice-Gönen fault, NW Turkey,.in light of the 18 March 1953 Yenice-Gönen Earthquake (Ms=7.2), MTA Dergisi, 159, 29-63, 2019.
- A. Barka and K. Kadinsky-Cade, Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity, Tectonics, vol. 7, pp. 663-684, 1988.
- T. Armijo, B. Meyer, S. Navarro, G. King and A. Barka, Asymetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: a clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault, Terra Novai, vol. 14, pp. 80-86, 2002.
- Ö. Emre, T. Y. Duman, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, Ş. Olgun and F. Şaroğlu, Active fault map of Turkey with explanatory text, General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration Special Publication Series, 30, Ankara, Turkey, 2013.
- F. Flerit, R. Armijo, G. C. P. King, B. Meyer and A. Barka, Slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity vectors, Geophys. J. Int., vol. 154, pp. 1-7, 2003.
- R. Reilinger, S. McClusky, P. Vernant, S. Lawrence, S. Ergintav, et al. GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 111, B05411, doi:10.1029/2005JB004051, 2006.
- T. Parsons, S. Toda, R.S. Stein, A. Barka, J.H. Dieterich, Heightened odds of large earthhquakes near İstanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation, Science, 288, 661-665, 2000.
- A. Hubert-Ferrari, A. Barka, E. Jacques S. Nalbant, B. Meyer, R. Armijo, P. Tapponnier and G. C. P. King, Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake, Nature, 404, 262-27, 2000.
- M. Utkucu, Z. Kanbur, Ö. Alptekin & F. Sünbül, Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard, Natural Hazard, 50(1), 45-71, 2009.
- N. Pondard, R. Armijo, G.C.P. King, B. Meyer and F. Flerit, Fault interactions in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences, Geophysical Journal International, 171, 3, 1185- 1197, 2007.
- B. Akol, T. Bekler, Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for NW Turkey, Nat Hazards, 68, 837–853, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0659-1, 2013
- K. H. Çoban and N. L. Sayil, Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, vol.13, no.18, 2020.
- S. Öztürk, Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis, Acta Geophysica, 59(2), 209–238, 2011.
- N. L. Sayil, Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, Acta Geophysica, vol.61, no.2, pp.338-356, 2013.
- N. Sayıl, Evaluation of the seismicity for the Marmara region with statistical approaches, Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica, 49, 265–281, 2014.
- M. Kikuchi, H. Kanamori, Inversion of complex body waves-III Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 81 (6), 2335-2350, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0810062335
- Ö. Kenar, M.N. Toksöz, Dispersion and Attenuation Properties of Surface Waves in Anatolia, Jeofizik Dergisi, 3(2), 1989.
- R. Armijo, N. Pondard, B. Meyer, G. Uçarkus, B. Mercier de Lépinay, J. Malavieille, ... & K. Sarikavak, Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull‐apart (North Anatolian Fault): Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 6(6), 2005.
- P. Burnard, S. Bourlange, P. Henry, L. Geli, M. D. Tryon, B. Natal’in, A. M. C. Sengör, M. S. Özeren, M. N. Çağatay, Constraints on fluid origins and migration velocities along the Marmara Main Fault (Sea of Marmara, Turkey) using helium isotopes, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volumes 341-344, Pages 68-78, 2012.
- B. Evangelia, A. Lomax, J. Tary, F. Klingelhoefer, V. Riboulot, S. Murphy, S. Monna, N. M. Özel, D. Kalafat, H. Saritas, G. Cifçi, N. Çagatay, L. Gasperini and L. Geli, An Alternative View of the Microseismicity along the Western Main Marmara Fault, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 108, No. 5A, pp. 2650-2674, 2018.
- Y. Yamamoto, D. Kalafat, A. Pinar, N. Takahashi, Z. Çoşkun, R. Polat, Y. Kaneda and H. Özener, Fault geometry beneath the western and Central Marmara Sea, Turkey, based on ocean bottom seismographic observations: Implications for future large earthquakes, Tectonophysics, Volume 791, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2020.228568.
- R. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., vol. 34, pp. 185-188, 1944.
- C.H. Scholz, Experimental Study of the Fracturing Process in Brittle Rock, Journal of Geophysical Research, 73(4), 1447-1454, 1968.
- S. Wiemer and M. Wyss, Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: an improved technique to calculate recurrence times, J. Geophys. Res., vol. 102, 15115-15128, 1997.
- W. Menke, Geophysical Data Analysis: Discrete Inverse Theory, International Geophysics Series, Vol. 45, Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, California 92101, ISBN -0-12-490921-3, 1989.
- A. O. Öncel, M. Wyss, The major asperities of the 1999 MW=7.4 İzmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decade before it, Geophys. J. Int. 143, 501-506, 2000.
- S. Wiemer, A software package to analyse seismicity: ZMAP, Seismological Research Letters, 72(3), 373–382, 2001.
Yıl 2023,
Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 65 - 75, 26.12.2023
Murat Utkucu
,
Fatih Uzunca
,
Yelçin Utkucu
,
Hatice Durmuş
,
Serap Kırım
Kaynakça
- A. Barka and K. Kadinsky-Cade, Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity, Tectonics, vol. 7, pp. 663-684, 1988.
- N. Ambraseys. The seismic activity of the Marmara Sea Region over the last 2000 years, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., vol. 92, pp. 1-18, 2002.
- N. Ambraseys, Earthquakes in the Mediterranean and Middle East: a multidisciplinary study of seismicity up to 1900, Cambridge University Press., ISBN: 978-0-521-87292-8, 2009.
- D. Kalafat, Y. Günes, M. Kara, P. Deniz, K. Kekovalı, S. H. Kuleli, L. Gülen, M. Yılmazer, and N. Özel, A revised and extended earthquake catalogue for Turkey since 1900 (M4.0), Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü, Bebek-İstanbul, 553 pp., 2007.
- O. Tan, A homogeneous earthquake catalogue for Turkey, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., vol. 21, pp. 2059–2073, 2021. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2059-2021.
- K. T. Rockwell, A. Barka, T. Dawson, H. S.Akyuz, K. Thorup, Paleoseismology of the Gazikoy-Saros segment of the North Antolia fault, Northwestern Turkey: Comparison of the historical and paleoseismic records, implications of regional seismic hazard, and models of earthquake recurrence, Journal of Seismology 5(3), 433-448. 2001. DOI:10.1023/A:1011435927983.
- Y. Klinger, K. Sieh, E. Altunel, A. Akoglu, A. Barka, T. Dawson, T. Gonzalez, A. Meltzner and T. Rockwell, Paleoseismic Evidence of Characteristic Slip on the Western Segment of the North Anatolian Fault, Turkey. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 93, 2317-2332, 2003.
- N. Palyvos, D. Pantosti, C. Zabci and G. D’Addezio, Paleoseismological evidence of recent earthquakes on the 1967 Mudurnu Valley Earthquake segment of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97, 5, 1646-1661, 2007.
- A. Kop, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, M. Kara and T. Y. Duman, Active tectonic and palaeoseismological features of the western section of Mustafakemalpaşa Fault; Bursa, NW Anatolia, Geodinamica Acta, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 363-378, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2016.1208525
- V. Özaksoy, H. Elmaci, Ö. Selim, K. Meryem and T.Y. Duman. Holocene activity of the Orhaneli Fault based on palaoseismological data, Bursa, NW Anatolia, Bull. Min. Res. Exp., 156: 1-16, 2018.
- A. Kürçer, S. Özalp,E. Özdemir, Ç. U. Güldoğan and T. Y. Duman. Active tectonic and paleoseismologic characteristics of the Yenice-Gönen fault, NW Turkey,.in light of the 18 March 1953 Yenice-Gönen Earthquake (Ms=7.2), MTA Dergisi, 159, 29-63, 2019.
- A. Barka and K. Kadinsky-Cade, Strike-slip fault geometry in Turkey and its influence on earthquake activity, Tectonics, vol. 7, pp. 663-684, 1988.
- T. Armijo, B. Meyer, S. Navarro, G. King and A. Barka, Asymetric slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart: a clue to propagation processes of the North Anatolian Fault, Terra Novai, vol. 14, pp. 80-86, 2002.
- Ö. Emre, T. Y. Duman, S. Özalp, H. Elmacı, Ş. Olgun and F. Şaroğlu, Active fault map of Turkey with explanatory text, General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration Special Publication Series, 30, Ankara, Turkey, 2013.
- F. Flerit, R. Armijo, G. C. P. King, B. Meyer and A. Barka, Slip partitioning in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart determined from GPS velocity vectors, Geophys. J. Int., vol. 154, pp. 1-7, 2003.
- R. Reilinger, S. McClusky, P. Vernant, S. Lawrence, S. Ergintav, et al. GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa-Arabia-Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., Vol. 111, B05411, doi:10.1029/2005JB004051, 2006.
- T. Parsons, S. Toda, R.S. Stein, A. Barka, J.H. Dieterich, Heightened odds of large earthhquakes near İstanbul: An interaction-based probability calculation, Science, 288, 661-665, 2000.
- A. Hubert-Ferrari, A. Barka, E. Jacques S. Nalbant, B. Meyer, R. Armijo, P. Tapponnier and G. C. P. King, Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake, Nature, 404, 262-27, 2000.
- M. Utkucu, Z. Kanbur, Ö. Alptekin & F. Sünbül, Seismic behaviour of the North Anatolian Fault beneath the Sea of Marmara (NW Turkey): implications for earthquake recurrence times and future seismic hazard, Natural Hazard, 50(1), 45-71, 2009.
- N. Pondard, R. Armijo, G.C.P. King, B. Meyer and F. Flerit, Fault interactions in the Sea of Marmara pull-apart (North Anatolian Fault): earthquake clustering and propagating earthquake sequences, Geophysical Journal International, 171, 3, 1185- 1197, 2007.
- B. Akol, T. Bekler, Assessment of the statistical earthquake hazard parameters for NW Turkey, Nat Hazards, 68, 837–853, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0659-1, 2013
- K. H. Çoban and N. L. Sayil, Different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrences along the North and East Anatolian fault zones, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, vol.13, no.18, 2020.
- S. Öztürk, Characteristics of seismic activity in the Western, Central and Eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis, Acta Geophysica, 59(2), 209–238, 2011.
- N. L. Sayil, Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model, Acta Geophysica, vol.61, no.2, pp.338-356, 2013.
- N. Sayıl, Evaluation of the seismicity for the Marmara region with statistical approaches, Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica, 49, 265–281, 2014.
- M. Kikuchi, H. Kanamori, Inversion of complex body waves-III Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 81 (6), 2335-2350, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0810062335
- Ö. Kenar, M.N. Toksöz, Dispersion and Attenuation Properties of Surface Waves in Anatolia, Jeofizik Dergisi, 3(2), 1989.
- R. Armijo, N. Pondard, B. Meyer, G. Uçarkus, B. Mercier de Lépinay, J. Malavieille, ... & K. Sarikavak, Submarine fault scarps in the Sea of Marmara pull‐apart (North Anatolian Fault): Implications for seismic hazard in Istanbul, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 6(6), 2005.
- P. Burnard, S. Bourlange, P. Henry, L. Geli, M. D. Tryon, B. Natal’in, A. M. C. Sengör, M. S. Özeren, M. N. Çağatay, Constraints on fluid origins and migration velocities along the Marmara Main Fault (Sea of Marmara, Turkey) using helium isotopes, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volumes 341-344, Pages 68-78, 2012.
- B. Evangelia, A. Lomax, J. Tary, F. Klingelhoefer, V. Riboulot, S. Murphy, S. Monna, N. M. Özel, D. Kalafat, H. Saritas, G. Cifçi, N. Çagatay, L. Gasperini and L. Geli, An Alternative View of the Microseismicity along the Western Main Marmara Fault, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 108, No. 5A, pp. 2650-2674, 2018.
- Y. Yamamoto, D. Kalafat, A. Pinar, N. Takahashi, Z. Çoşkun, R. Polat, Y. Kaneda and H. Özener, Fault geometry beneath the western and Central Marmara Sea, Turkey, based on ocean bottom seismographic observations: Implications for future large earthquakes, Tectonophysics, Volume 791, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2020.228568.
- R. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, Frequency of earthquakes in California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., vol. 34, pp. 185-188, 1944.
- C.H. Scholz, Experimental Study of the Fracturing Process in Brittle Rock, Journal of Geophysical Research, 73(4), 1447-1454, 1968.
- S. Wiemer and M. Wyss, Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: an improved technique to calculate recurrence times, J. Geophys. Res., vol. 102, 15115-15128, 1997.
- W. Menke, Geophysical Data Analysis: Discrete Inverse Theory, International Geophysics Series, Vol. 45, Academic Press, Inc., San Diego, California 92101, ISBN -0-12-490921-3, 1989.
- A. O. Öncel, M. Wyss, The major asperities of the 1999 MW=7.4 İzmit earthquake defined by the microseismicity of the two decade before it, Geophys. J. Int. 143, 501-506, 2000.
- S. Wiemer, A software package to analyse seismicity: ZMAP, Seismological Research Letters, 72(3), 373–382, 2001.