BIST100 Endeksinde İşlem Hacmi ve İşlem Miktarında Hava Durumu Anomalisi

Öz

Neo-klasik iktisadın üzerinde durduğu noktalardan birisi, klasik iktisattan ödünç aldığı bireyin rasyonelliği ilkesidir. Bu ilke ile insanların acı ve zevklerinde, farklı malların kendisine sağladığı faydanın ölçülmesinde ve gelecek ihtiyaçlarının ayarlanmasında rasyonel olduğu kabul edilmiştir. Ancak hisse senedi borsalarında görülen piyasa anomalileri insanın rasyonelliğine dair beyan edilen bu ilkenin sorgulanmasına neden olmuştur. Bireysel yatırımcı davranışını etkileyen sebepler ve bu sebeplerin sonucu olarak karşımıza çıkan piyasa anomalileri farklı araştırmacılar tarafından farklı şekillerde açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu çalışmalar davranışsal finans kavramını literatüre katmıştır. Ancak piyasa etkinliğinin bozulmasına sebep olan faktörlerden bazıları insan davranışlarını etkileyen faktörlere kadar araştırılması gerekmektedir. Bu faktörlerden en bilineni hava durumu koşullarıdır. Bu çalışmada BIST100 endeksinde Şubat 2011 ile Eylül 2015 tarihleri arasında gerçekleşen işlem hacmi ve işlem miktarı ile hava durumu koşulları ele alınmıştır. Çalışmanın analizleri öncelikle, güneşli, bulutlu, yağmurlu, karlı şeklinde sınıflandırmada hava durumu koşulları bakımından işlem hacmi ve işlem miktarlarının ortalamaları arasında anlamlı bir fark olup olmadığını tespiti için SPSS 22.0 paket programı ile yapılacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Hava durumu anomalisi,BIST100 işlem hacmi,BIST100 işlem miktarı,Yatırımcı Davranışı

Trading Size and Trading Volume in BIST100 Index and Weather Anomaly

Abstract

One of the points of neoclassical economics is the rationality of the individual which is borrowed from classical economics. With this principle, it has been assumed that people are rational in their suffering, pleasure, perceived benefit and planning of future needs. However, market anomalies in the stock market have led to the questioning of this principle which advocates human rationality. The reasons that affect individual investor behavior and the resulting market anomalies have been tried to be explained by researchers in different ways. These studies have included the concept of behavioral finance in the literature. In order to understand the factors that lead to the deterioration of market efficiency, it is necessary to examine the factors affecting human behavior. One of the most common of these factors is the weather conditions. In this study, trading volume and trading size and weather conditions in BIST100 index between February 2011 and September 2015 were considered. For the analysis of the work, weather conditions will be classified as sunny, cloudy, rainy, and snowy. Afterwards, SPSS 22.0 program will be used to determine whether there is a meaningful difference between the average of transaction volume and transaction amounts.

Keywords

• Weather Anomalies,Decision Making,BIST100,Investor Behavior

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