Organik Arpa ve Buğday Üretim Tahmini: Ağrı İli Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye-Ağrı ilinde 2021-2024 yılları arasında organik buğday ve arpa üretimine yönelik trend analizini açıklamaktadır. Organik ürün üretimi için organik tarım çiftlik alanı trendi ve organik tarım işçisi trendi analiz edilmiştir. 2015 yılına kadar organik tarım alanları ve işçi sayısında artış olduğu ancak 2015-2020 yılları arasında durgunluk ve ardından düşüş trendinin yaşandığı tespit edilmiştir. Organik buğday üretiminde de benzer bir eğilim yaşanırken, 2008 yılından itibaren genel olarak organik arpa üretiminin arttığı belirlenmiştir. Organik tarım alanında 2021-2024 yılları tahminleri için Ağrı'da işçi sayısı, buğday ve arpa üretimi ilde, Exponential Growth Method, Quadratic Trend Analysis yöntemi ile 2007-2020 verilerine ayrı ayrı uygulanmış ve ideal tahmin verileri elde edilmeye çalışılmıştır. Elde edilen tahmin sonuçları kapsamında önümüzdeki yıllarda organik arpa üretiminin artış trendinde olması, organik buğday üretiminin ise tam tersi olması beklenmektedir. Bu analiz sonuçları ışığında üreticilerin bilinçlendirilmesi ve düşüş trendlerinin tekrardan artış trendine çevrilmesi tarım üreticileri için büyük önem taşımaktadır.

Keywords

• Trend Analizi
• Organik Buğday
• Organik Arpa
• Organik Tarım

Organic Barley and Wheat Production Forecast: The Case of Ağrı Province

Abstract

This study explains the trend analysis for organic wheat and barley production in Turkey-Ağrı province between 2021 and 2024. For organic product production, the organic agricultural farm area trend and the organic agricultural worker trend have been analyzed. Until 2015, it has been determined that there was an increase in the number of organic agricultural areas and workers, but between 2015 and 2020 the trend of stagnation and then the downtrend had been occurred. While a similar trend has occurred in organic wheat production, it has been determined that organic barley production has been increasing overall since 2008. For the estimations of 2021-2024 years in the organic farming area, number of workers, wheat and barley production in Ağrı province, the Exponential Growth Method was applied separately to the 2007-2020 data with the Quadratic Trend Analysis method and ideal estimation data were tried to be obtained. Within the scope of the forecast results obtained, organic barley production is expected to be on an upward trend in the coming years, while organic wheat production is expected to be the opposite. In the light of these analysis results, it is of great importance for agricultural producers to raise awareness of producers and turn the downward trends back into an upward trend.

Keywords

• Trend Analysis
• Organic Wheat
• Organic Barley
• Organic Agriculture

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