Prioritization of Districts in terms of Disaster Preparedness Planning: A Case Study for the Expected Istanbul Earthquake

Abstract

Preparedness is the second among the four phases of disaster management after mitigation. In big cities with a crowded population like İstanbul, development of a single holistic disaster preparedness plan would be too complex. At this point, prioritization of districts is needed because of the existence of limited amount of available resources (time, staff, money, etc.) plan development stage. This decision can be affected by several factors, so this decision can be defined as a multiple criteria decision-making problem. The main aim in this paper is to develop an analytic approach to obtain the priority rank of districts of the city for disaster preparedness plan development. To do so, a hybrid multiple criteria decision-making model based on SWARA (Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis) and WASPAS (Weight Aggregated Sum Product Assessment) is proposed. A case study on earthquake preparedness planning in districts of İstanbul is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model. Obtained results of the model would be helpful for policy making in volunteer organizations, municipality, and government level.

Keywords

• Disaster management
• MCDM
• SWARA
• WASPAS
• Earthquake preparedness planning.

References

1. R. S. Oktari, K. Munadi, R. Idroes, and H. Sofyan, "Knowledge management practices in disaster management: Systematic review," International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, vol. 51, 101881, 2020.
2. N. R. Mosteanu, A. Faccia, and L. Cavaliere, "Disaster Management Digitalization and Financial Resources: key factors to keep the organization ongoing", Proceedings of the 4-th International Conference on Cloud and Big Data Computing, pp. 118-122, 2020.
3. R. Oloruntoba, R. Sridharan, and G. Davison, "A proposed framework of key activities and processes in the preparedness and recovery phases of disaster management," Disasters, vol. 42, pp. 541-570, 2018.
4. W. Sun, P. Bocchini, and B. D. Davison, "Applications of artificial intelligence for disaster management," Natural Hazards, vol. 103, pp. 2631-2689, 2020.
5. T. Parsons, S. Toda, R. S. Stein, A. Barka, and J. H. Dieterich, "Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation," Science, vol. 288, pp. 661-665, 2000.
6. B. Ecer, "Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Decision Approach for Stroller Selection," BEU Journal of Science, vol. 10, pp. 1464-1473, 2021.
7. B. Caroleo, E. Palumbo, M. Osella, A. Lotito, G. Rizzo, E. Ferro, A. Attanasio, S. Chiusano, G. Zuccaro, M. Leone, and D. D. Gregorio, "A Knowledge-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Support System Encompassing Cascading Effects for Disaster Management," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making, vol. 17, pp. 1469-1498, 2018.
8. A. Tella, and A. L. Balogun, "Ensemble fuzzy MCDM for spatial assessment of flood susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria," Natural Hazards, vol. 104, pp. 2277-2306, 2020.

9. K. B. Y. Kumlu, and Ş. Tüdeş, "Determination of earthquake‑risky areas in Yalova City Center (Marmara region, Turkey) using GIS‑based multicriteria decision‑making techniques (analytical hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)," Natural Hazards, vol. 96, pp. 999-1018, 2019.
10. S. M. Ghavami, "Multi-criteria spatial decision support system for identifying strategic roads in disaster situations," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, vol. 24, pp. 23-36, 2019.
11. M. Rezaei-Malek, S. A. Torabi, and R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, "Prioritizing disaster-prone areas for large-scale earthquakes' preparedness: Methodology and application," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, vol. 67, pp. 9-25, 2019.
12. H. Yılmaz, and Ö. Kabak, "Prioritizing distribution centers in humanitarian logistics using type-2 fuzzy MCDM approach," Journal of Enterprise Information Management, vol. 33, pp. 1199-1232, 2020.
13. N. Aydin, "Designing reverse logistics network of end-of-life-buildings as preparedness to disasters under uncertainty," Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 256, 120341, 2020.
14. I. Barutcu, and Y. T. Ic, "Selecting the field hospital location for earthquakes: an application for Ankara Province in Turkey," International Journal of Emergency Services, vol. 11, pp. 168-187, 2022.
15. V. Keršuliene, E. K. Zavadskas, and Z. Turskis, “Selection of rational dispute resolution method by applying new step‐wise weight assessment ratio analysis (Swara),” Journal of Business Economics and Management, vol. 11, pp. 243-258, 2010.
16. E. K. Zavadskas, Z. Turskis, J. Antucheviciene, and A. Zakarevicius, "Optimization of weighted aggregated sum product assessment", Electronics and Electric Engineering, vol. 122, pp. 3-6, 2012.
17. T. Arsu, and E. Ayçin, E., “Evaluation of Third-Party Reverse Logistics Service Provider Selection Criteria with Fuzzy SWARA Method”, Journal of Yasar University, vol. 16, pp. 1282-1300, 2021.
18. B. Ecer, “Kararsız Bulanık Dilsel Terimler Temelli SWARA Yöntemi ile Ülke Değerlendirme Kriterlerinin Ağırlıklandırılması,” in Bulanık Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri - Ms Excel ® ve Software Çözümlü Uygulamalar, Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık, 2021, pp. 217-229.
19. M. Yörükoğlu, and S. Aydin, “Digital Library Evaluation by SWARA-WASPAS Method,” International Journal of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, vol. 14, pp. 444-447, 2020.
20. B. Ecer, “WASPAS Yöntemi ile Yeşil Tedarikçi Seçimi,” in Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri: MS Excel ® Çözümlü Uygulamalar, Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık, 2020, pp. 209-220.
21. Vikipedi, "İstanbul haritası," [Online]. Available: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C4%B0stanbul#/media/Dosya:Istanbul_location_districts.svg. [Accessed: June 01, 2022].
22. Turkish Statistics Institute, "Veri portalı," [Online]. Available: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/DownloadIstatistikselTablo?p=PbEEZq9dLdCxTZT6EO2cURnZ2bTR3p1DGrFrQF7MNMh8XEYmRZkBRR5OTinJpNxD. [Accessed: June 01, 2022].]
23. T24, "İstanbul'da hangi ilçede, kaç tane toplanma alanı var?," October, 03, 2019 [Online]. Available: https://t24.com.tr/haber/istanbul-hangi-ilcede-kac-tane-toplanma-alani-var,842165. [Accessed: June 01, 2022].
24. İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Earthquake and Soil Investigation Directorate, "Güncel çalışmalarımız," [Online]. Available: https://depremzemin.ibb.istanbul/guncelcalismalarimiz/#olasi-deprem-kayip-tahmnler-le-ktapiklari. [Accessed: June 01, 2022].