Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey

Yıl 2019, , 1338 - 1348, 24.12.2019

Mehmet Beşkirli , Mehmet Fatih Tefek , Harun Uğuz

https://doi.org/10.17798/bitlisfen.527899

Cited By: 2

Öz

Estimation
of energy demand beforehand is a quite significant problem in respect of
economy and sources of country. In this study, Gravitational Search Algorithm
(GSA) was modified by making some innovations in GSA and called as Modified
Gravitational Search Algorithm (MGSA). Energy demand estimation is conducted
through the relationship between the increase in economic indicators in Turkey
and energy consumption. Estimation was actualized by using gross domestic
product (GSYH), importation, exportation and demography for energy demand
estimation and both linear and exponential equations. Energy demand between the
years 2017-2037 was predicted by using the data belong to 1997-2011. The years
between 2012 and 2016 were used as test data. It was observed that the results
acquired via MGSA estimate better compared to GSA results.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gravitational search algorithm, Energy demand, Estimation, Turkey

Modified Gravitational Search Algorithm for Energy Demand Estimation of Turkey

Öz

Ülke
ekonomisi ve kaynakları bakımından enerji talebini önceden tahmin etmek çok
önemli bir problemdir. Bu çalışmada, Yerçekimi Arama Algoritması (YAA) ile
YAA’da yapılan bazı yenilikler yapılarak modifiye edilmiş ve Modifiye Yerçekimi
Arama Algoritması (MYAA) olarak adlandırılmıştır. Enerji talep tahmini,
Türkiye’deki ekonomik göstergelerin artışı ile enerji tüketimi arasındaki
ilişki ile gerçekleşmektedir. Enerji talep tahmini için gayri safi yurtiçi
hasıla (GSYH), ithalat, ihracat ve nüfus bilgileri hem lineer hem de üssel
denklemler kullanılarak tahmin işlemi gerçekleştirildi. 1997-2011 yılları
arasındaki veriler kullanılarak 2017-2037 yılları arasındaki enerji talebi
tahmin edilmiştir. 2012 ile 2016 yılları ise test verisi olarak kullanılmıştır.
MGSA ile elde edilen sonuçlar GSA sonuçlarına göre daha iyi bir tahmin
gerçekleştirdiği görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yerçekimi arama algoritması, Enerji talebi, Tahmin, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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