Assessment of tourist arrival from Russian to Antalya using the univariate time series methods

Abstract

Antalya turizminin sürekli büyümesiyle birlikte, daha doğru turizm talep öngörülerine duyulan ihtiyaç ortaya çıkmakta ve öngörü performansı zaman serisi yöntemlerine göre değerlendirilmektir. Mevsimsel dalgalanmalar turizm serilerinin en önemli özelliğidir ve bu özelliği onu farklı modellerin öngörü performanslarını karşılaştırmak için uygun bir ortam haline getirmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2007-2018 yılları arasında Rusya'dan Antalya'ya gelen turistlerin verileri kullanılmaktadır. Turizm talebinin öngörüsünde parametrik ve parametrik olmayan tek değişkenli zaman serisi teknikleri, ARIMA, ETS, Kombinasyon (veya Hibrit) ve SSA, karşılaştırılmaktadır. Bu çalışma sonucunda elde edilen tahminlerin doğruluğu açısından parametrik olmayan SSA yönteminin daha başarılı olduğu görülmektedir.

Keywords

• Turizm
• öngörü
• zaman serisi yöntemleri
• tek değişkenli modeller

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