Abstract
References
- Akdi, Y. Zaman Serileri Analizi (Birim Kökler ve Kointegrasyon), 2nd Ed., Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi. 2010.
- Bahar,O ve Kozak, M. Türkiye Turizminin Akdeniz Ülkeleri ile Rekabet Gücü Açısından Kar¸sıla¸stırılması, Anatolia: Turizm Ara¸stırmaları Dergisi, Vol. 16, No 2, Güz, pp. 139-152, (2005).
- Chen, K.Y. Combining Linear and Nonlinear Model In Forecasting Tourism Demand, Expert Systems with Applications, 38, pp. 10368–10376, (2011).
- Dwyer, L. Gill, A. and Seetaram, N. Handbook of Research Methods in Tourism: Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches, Edward Elgar Pub, 2012.
- Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. Spurious Regressions In Econometrics, Journal of Econo- metrics 2, pp. 111-120, (1974).
- Gujarati, M. and Porter, D. Temel Ekonometri, Translation from 5th Ed. (Ümit ¸Senesen and Gülay Günlük ¸Senesen), ·Istanbul, Literatür Yayıncılık, 2012.
- Song, H. and Witt, S.F. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches, Oxford: Pergamon, 2000.
- Song, H. and Li, G. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, A Review of Recent Re- search Tourism Management, 29 (2), pp. 203 – 220, ISSN 0261-5177, (2008).
- Song, H Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?, Tourism Economics, 16 (1), pp. 63–81, (2010).
- Statistics of TUROFED are accessed from < http://www.turofed.org.tr/Bilgi-Edinme_13.aspx> on 27th June 2013.
Abstract
This study focuses on modelling tourism demand with using number of tourists who came to Turkey between the years 1966-2012 (47 years)and bed numbers belonging to accommodation facilities with tourism operation licensed. The number of tourists and beds have only been reached dealingwith the years 1966-2012. Except from these variables, many variables such asstates investment incentives on tourism, tourism revenues, the annual averagetemperature, the parity of foreign currency like Euro, dollar and power of purchasing in the country could be taken into account. The aim of this paper is tocreate a forecasting model about the number of coming tourists and to provideprior information for tourism policies by regarding introduced models. In thissense, forecasting of international tourist arrivals for 2013-2020 is purposed
Keywords
Tourism demand tourism demand modelling forecasting inversemodels time series models exponential smoothing models
References
- Akdi, Y. Zaman Serileri Analizi (Birim Kökler ve Kointegrasyon), 2nd Ed., Ankara, Gazi Kitabevi. 2010.
- Bahar,O ve Kozak, M. Türkiye Turizminin Akdeniz Ülkeleri ile Rekabet Gücü Açısından Kar¸sıla¸stırılması, Anatolia: Turizm Ara¸stırmaları Dergisi, Vol. 16, No 2, Güz, pp. 139-152, (2005).
- Chen, K.Y. Combining Linear and Nonlinear Model In Forecasting Tourism Demand, Expert Systems with Applications, 38, pp. 10368–10376, (2011).
- Dwyer, L. Gill, A. and Seetaram, N. Handbook of Research Methods in Tourism: Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches, Edward Elgar Pub, 2012.
- Granger, C.W.J. and Newbold, P. Spurious Regressions In Econometrics, Journal of Econo- metrics 2, pp. 111-120, (1974).
- Gujarati, M. and Porter, D. Temel Ekonometri, Translation from 5th Ed. (Ümit ¸Senesen and Gülay Günlük ¸Senesen), ·Istanbul, Literatür Yayıncılık, 2012.
- Song, H. and Witt, S.F. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: Modern Econometric Approaches, Oxford: Pergamon, 2000.
- Song, H. and Li, G. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting, A Review of Recent Re- search Tourism Management, 29 (2), pp. 203 – 220, ISSN 0261-5177, (2008).
- Song, H Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: How Should Demand Be Measured?, Tourism Economics, 16 (1), pp. 63–81, (2010).
- Statistics of TUROFED are accessed from < http://www.turofed.org.tr/Bilgi-Edinme_13.aspx> on 27th June 2013.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Research Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | August 1, 2015 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2015 Volume: 64 Issue: 2 |
Cite
Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics.
