Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Variations in Erosion Risk in Western Anatolia (Turkey): Modified Fournier Approach

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 179 - 188, 28.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.33202/comuagri.866697

Öz

As a result of global warming, more intense rainfall events and hence higher flood and erosion risk are expected to occur more likely. As erosion has been an important environmental problem in Turkey, it would be beneficial to document how it changed during global warming era. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal evoluation of erosion risk from 1950 to 2018 in western Anatolia (Turkey), by using Modified Fournier Index (MFI). Also, temporal patterns of annual average temperature and annual total rainfall were analysed. The results, firstly, showed that the study area has cooled slightly from 1950 to 1976 and strongly warmed afterwards, which is consistent with the temporal pattern of global average temperature. Neither annual total rainfall nor MFI showed statistically significant tendencies during both periods. Erosion risk during the rapid warming period was not different from that in the cooling period. It follows that, on the contrary to the expectation, erosion risk in the study area stayed unchaged while average temperature increased substantially after mid-1970s.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasnia, M., Toros, H. 2020. Trend analysis of weather extremes across the coastal and non-coastal areas (case study: Turkey). J. Earth Syst. Sci. 129: 95.
  • Ağbaş, İ., 2019. Batı Anadolu’da günlük yağış şiddetindeki değişimler. Aydın Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Tarımsal Yapılar ve Sulama Anabilim Dalı, Yüksek Lisans Tezi. 135 s.
  • Akçakaya, A., Sümer, U.M., Demircan, M., Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Gürkan, H., Yazıcı, B., Kocatürk, A., Şensoy, S., Bölük, E., Arabacı, H., Açar, Y., Ekici, M., Yağan, S., Çukurçayır, F., 2015. Yeni senaryolar ile Türkiye İklim Projeksiyonları ve İklim Değişikliği. Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Alam, M.D.T., Sarker, T., 2014. Precipitation distribution and erosivity in Bangladesh: 1981-2010. European Academic Research, 1: 5167-5177.
  • Amara, D.M.K., Ullah, K., Yushu, Z., 2020. Rainfall erosivity estimation for Sierra Leone using non-parametric indices. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 139: 221-236.
  • Anonymous, 2020. Türkiye’de Erozyon. TC Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı, Çölleşme ve Erozyonla Mücadele Genel Müdürlüğü. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/CEM/Menu/39/Belgeler.
  • Arnoldus, H.M.J., 1980. An approximation of the rainfall factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation. In: De Boodt, M. and Gabriels D. (eds.). Assessment of soil erosion. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, Gran Bretaña. p. 127-132.
  • Biswas, S.S., Pani, P., 2015. Estimation of soil erosion using RUSLE and GIS techniques: a case study of Barakar River basin, Jharkhand, India. Mod. Ear. Syst. Environ. 1: 42
  • Coscarelli, R., Caloiero, T., 2012. Analysis of daily and monthly rainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region). J. Hydrol. 416–417: 145–156
  • Cubasch, U., Wuebbles, D., Chen, D., Facchini, M.C., Frame, D., Mahowald, N., Winther, J-G., 2013. Introduction. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M. (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  • De Luis, M., Gonzales-Hidalgo, J.C., Longares, L.A., 2010. Is rainfall erosivity increasing in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula? Land Degrad. Dev. 21: 139–144.
  • Di Lena, B., Antenucci, F., Vergni, L., Mariani, L., 2013. Analysis of the Climatic Aggressiveness of Rainfall in the Abruzzo Region. Ital. J. Agrometeorol. 1: 33-44.
  • Duzenli, E., Tabari, H., Willems, P., Yilmaz, M.T., 2018. Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns. Hydrol. Process. 32: 3513-3528.
  • Fenta, A.A., Yasuda, H., Shimizu, K., Haregeweyn, N., Kawai, T., Sultan, D., Ebabu, K., 2017. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall and erosivity in the Eastern Africa region. Hydrol. Process. 31: 4555-4567.
  • Fournier, F., 1960. Climat et érosion: la relation entre l’érosion du sol par l’eau et les précipitations atmosphériques. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.
  • Fowler, A.M., Hennessy, K.J., 1995. Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation. Nat. Hazards 11: 283–303
  • García-Marín, A.P., Ayuso-Muñoz, J.L., Cantero, F.N., Ayuso-Ruiz, J.L., 2017. Spatial and trend analyses of rainfall seasonality and erosivity in the West of Andalusia (Period 1945–2005). Soil Sci. 182: 146–158.
  • Gilbert, R.O., 1987. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York
  • Kinnel, P.I.A., 2010. Event soil loss, runoff and the Universal Soil Loss Equation family of models: A review. J. Hydrol. 385: 384–397.
  • Kosaka, Y., Xie, S.P., 2016. The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. Nat. Geosci. 9: 669–673.
  • Krichak, S.O., Breitgand, J.S., Gualdi, S., Feldstein, S.B., 2014. Teleconnection–extreme precipitation relationships over the Mediterranean region. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 117: 679–692.
  • Li, X., Jiang, F., Li, L., Wang, G., 2011. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation concentration index, concentration degree and concentration period in Xinjiang, China. Int. J. Climatol. 31: 1679–1693
  • Lukić, T., Basarin, B., Micić, T., Bjelajac, D., Maris, T., Marković, S.B., Pavić, D., Gavrilov, M.B., Mesaroš, M., 2018. Rainfall erosivity and extreme precipitation in the Netherlands. IDOJARAS Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 122: 409–432
  • Meehl, G.A., 2015. Decadal climate variability and the early-2000s hiatus. US Clivar Variations, 13(3): 1-6.
  • Mishra, A.K., Singh, V.P., 2010. Changes in extreme precipitation in Texas. J. Geophys. Res-Atmos. 115:D14106
  • Munka, C., Cruz, G., Caffera, R.M., 2007. Long term variation in rainfall erosivity in Uruguay: a preliminary Fournier approach. GeoJournal 70: 257–262.
  • Nunes, A.N., Lourenço, L., Vieira, A., Bento-Gonçalves, A., 2016. Precipitation and erosivity in southern Portugal: seasonal variability and trends (1950–2008) Land Degrad. Dev. 27: 211–222
  • Salmi, T., Maata, A., Antilla, P., Ruoho-Airola, T., Amnell, T., 2002. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates—the Excel template application Makesens. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki
  • Sensoy, S., Turkoglu, N., Akçakaya, A., Ekici, M., Demircan, M., Ulupınar, Y., Atay, H., Tüvan, A., Demirbaş, H. 2013. Trends in Turkey climate indices from 1960 to 2010. 6th Atmospheric Science Symposium, 24-26 April, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Yeşilırmak, E., Atatanır, L., 2016. Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in western Turkey. Nat. Hazards 81: 687–704
  • Zhang, Q., Zhou, Y., Singh, V.P., Li, J., 2012. Scaling and clustering effects of extreme precipitation distributions. J. Hydrol. 454–455: 187–194.

Batı Anadolu’da Erozyon Riskindeki Değişimler: Modifiye Fournier Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 179 - 188, 28.06.2021
https://doi.org/10.33202/comuagri.866697

Öz

Küresel ısınmanın sonucu olarak, daha şiddetli yağışlar ve buna bağlı olarak taşkın ve erozyon riskinde artış beklenmektedir. Erozyonun Türkiye’nin en önemli çevre sorunlarından biri olması nedeniyle, küresel ısınmayla birlikte erozyon riskinde nasıl bir değişim olduğunun ortaya konması yararlı bilgiler verebilir. Bu çalışmada, 1950 ile 2018 yılları arasında, batı Anadolu’da modifiye Fournier indeksi kullanılarak erozyon riskindeki değişimler incelenmiştir. Ayrıca, çalışma alanındaki yıllık ortalama sıcaklıklar ile yıllık toplam yağışlardaki değişimler de incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, çalışma alanındaki yıllık ortalama sıcaklıkların, küresel sıcaklık değişimi ile uyumlu olarak, 1950 ile 1976 arasında hafif bir azalış ve ardından 1976 sonrasında ise hızlı bir artış eğiliminde olduğunu, hem yıllık toplam yağışlarda hem de MFI değerlerinde her iki dönem içinde de istatistiksel olarak önemli bir değişim eğilimi olmadığını göstermiştir. Hızlı ısınma dönemindeki erozyon riski, hafif soğuma dönemindekinden farklı bulunmamıştır. Batı Anadolu’daki 1970’lerin ortasından itibaren gerçekleşen hızlı sıcaklık artışına rağmen, beklentinin aksine, erozyon riskinde bir değişim olmadığı saptanmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Abbasnia, M., Toros, H. 2020. Trend analysis of weather extremes across the coastal and non-coastal areas (case study: Turkey). J. Earth Syst. Sci. 129: 95.
  • Ağbaş, İ., 2019. Batı Anadolu’da günlük yağış şiddetindeki değişimler. Aydın Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Tarımsal Yapılar ve Sulama Anabilim Dalı, Yüksek Lisans Tezi. 135 s.
  • Akçakaya, A., Sümer, U.M., Demircan, M., Demir, Ö., Atay, H., Eskioğlu, O., Gürkan, H., Yazıcı, B., Kocatürk, A., Şensoy, S., Bölük, E., Arabacı, H., Açar, Y., Ekici, M., Yağan, S., Çukurçayır, F., 2015. Yeni senaryolar ile Türkiye İklim Projeksiyonları ve İklim Değişikliği. Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü, Ankara.
  • Alam, M.D.T., Sarker, T., 2014. Precipitation distribution and erosivity in Bangladesh: 1981-2010. European Academic Research, 1: 5167-5177.
  • Amara, D.M.K., Ullah, K., Yushu, Z., 2020. Rainfall erosivity estimation for Sierra Leone using non-parametric indices. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 139: 221-236.
  • Anonymous, 2020. Türkiye’de Erozyon. TC Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı, Çölleşme ve Erozyonla Mücadele Genel Müdürlüğü. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/CEM/Menu/39/Belgeler.
  • Arnoldus, H.M.J., 1980. An approximation of the rainfall factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation. In: De Boodt, M. and Gabriels D. (eds.). Assessment of soil erosion. John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, Gran Bretaña. p. 127-132.
  • Biswas, S.S., Pani, P., 2015. Estimation of soil erosion using RUSLE and GIS techniques: a case study of Barakar River basin, Jharkhand, India. Mod. Ear. Syst. Environ. 1: 42
  • Coscarelli, R., Caloiero, T., 2012. Analysis of daily and monthly rainfall concentration in Southern Italy (Calabria region). J. Hydrol. 416–417: 145–156
  • Cubasch, U., Wuebbles, D., Chen, D., Facchini, M.C., Frame, D., Mahowald, N., Winther, J-G., 2013. Introduction. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M. (eds) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
  • De Luis, M., Gonzales-Hidalgo, J.C., Longares, L.A., 2010. Is rainfall erosivity increasing in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula? Land Degrad. Dev. 21: 139–144.
  • Di Lena, B., Antenucci, F., Vergni, L., Mariani, L., 2013. Analysis of the Climatic Aggressiveness of Rainfall in the Abruzzo Region. Ital. J. Agrometeorol. 1: 33-44.
  • Duzenli, E., Tabari, H., Willems, P., Yilmaz, M.T., 2018. Decadal variability analysis of extreme precipitation in Turkey and its relationship with teleconnection patterns. Hydrol. Process. 32: 3513-3528.
  • Fenta, A.A., Yasuda, H., Shimizu, K., Haregeweyn, N., Kawai, T., Sultan, D., Ebabu, K., 2017. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall and erosivity in the Eastern Africa region. Hydrol. Process. 31: 4555-4567.
  • Fournier, F., 1960. Climat et érosion: la relation entre l’érosion du sol par l’eau et les précipitations atmosphériques. Paris: Presses Universitaires de France.
  • Fowler, A.M., Hennessy, K.J., 1995. Potential impacts of global warming on the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation. Nat. Hazards 11: 283–303
  • García-Marín, A.P., Ayuso-Muñoz, J.L., Cantero, F.N., Ayuso-Ruiz, J.L., 2017. Spatial and trend analyses of rainfall seasonality and erosivity in the West of Andalusia (Period 1945–2005). Soil Sci. 182: 146–158.
  • Gilbert, R.O., 1987. Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, New York
  • Kinnel, P.I.A., 2010. Event soil loss, runoff and the Universal Soil Loss Equation family of models: A review. J. Hydrol. 385: 384–397.
  • Kosaka, Y., Xie, S.P., 2016. The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming. Nat. Geosci. 9: 669–673.
  • Krichak, S.O., Breitgand, J.S., Gualdi, S., Feldstein, S.B., 2014. Teleconnection–extreme precipitation relationships over the Mediterranean region. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 117: 679–692.
  • Li, X., Jiang, F., Li, L., Wang, G., 2011. Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation concentration index, concentration degree and concentration period in Xinjiang, China. Int. J. Climatol. 31: 1679–1693
  • Lukić, T., Basarin, B., Micić, T., Bjelajac, D., Maris, T., Marković, S.B., Pavić, D., Gavrilov, M.B., Mesaroš, M., 2018. Rainfall erosivity and extreme precipitation in the Netherlands. IDOJARAS Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 122: 409–432
  • Meehl, G.A., 2015. Decadal climate variability and the early-2000s hiatus. US Clivar Variations, 13(3): 1-6.
  • Mishra, A.K., Singh, V.P., 2010. Changes in extreme precipitation in Texas. J. Geophys. Res-Atmos. 115:D14106
  • Munka, C., Cruz, G., Caffera, R.M., 2007. Long term variation in rainfall erosivity in Uruguay: a preliminary Fournier approach. GeoJournal 70: 257–262.
  • Nunes, A.N., Lourenço, L., Vieira, A., Bento-Gonçalves, A., 2016. Precipitation and erosivity in southern Portugal: seasonal variability and trends (1950–2008) Land Degrad. Dev. 27: 211–222
  • Salmi, T., Maata, A., Antilla, P., Ruoho-Airola, T., Amnell, T., 2002. Detecting trends of annual values of atmospheric pollutants by the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimates—the Excel template application Makesens. Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki
  • Sensoy, S., Turkoglu, N., Akçakaya, A., Ekici, M., Demircan, M., Ulupınar, Y., Atay, H., Tüvan, A., Demirbaş, H. 2013. Trends in Turkey climate indices from 1960 to 2010. 6th Atmospheric Science Symposium, 24-26 April, Istanbul, Turkey.
  • Yeşilırmak, E., Atatanır, L., 2016. Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation concentration in western Turkey. Nat. Hazards 81: 687–704
  • Zhang, Q., Zhou, Y., Singh, V.P., Li, J., 2012. Scaling and clustering effects of extreme precipitation distributions. J. Hydrol. 454–455: 187–194.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Çevre Bilimleri, Ziraat Mühendisliği
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Ercan Yeşilırmak 0000-0002-6054-4507

Levent Atatanır 0000-0001-5638-6676

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Haziran 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Yeşilırmak, E., & Atatanır, L. (2021). Variations in Erosion Risk in Western Anatolia (Turkey): Modified Fournier Approach. ÇOMÜ Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(1), 179-188. https://doi.org/10.33202/comuagri.866697