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Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 97 - 132, 25.06.2012

Öz

Otomobil talebi çoğu zaman çeşitli kuramsal ekonometrik modellerin uygulama alanı olmuş ve de otomotiv halen Türkiye’de lider ihracat sektörü konumundadır. Bu çalışmada ABD, Avrupa ve Türkiye’de yeni otomobil talebinin modellemesi ve tahmin edilmesi ile ilgili önemli gelişmeler incelenmiştir. Daha çok uygulama ile ilgilenen ekonometriciler bu tür bir modelin belirlenmesi ve gerekli ekonometrik tahmin yönteminin seçilmesi için faydalı bir bakış açısı kazanabilirler. Fakat, uygulamacı istatistikçi otomobil talebinin modellenmesi ve ileriye dönük satış miktarlarının tahmininde yaşanabilecek bir takım güçlüklere karşı uyarılmaktadır. Ülke menşei tüketicinin otomobil seçimini etkileyen önemli bir etken olduğu bilinmektedir ve dolayısıyla pazarlama literatüründe bulunan ürünün ülke menşei hususunda tüketici önyargılarını da inceleyeceğiz.

Kaynakça

  • ALPER, C. E. and MUMCU, A. “Interaction between price, quality and country of origin when estimating automobile demand: the case of Turkey”, Applied Economics, 2007, 39, 1789−96.
  • APIL, A. R. and KAYNAK, E. “Georgian consumers’ evaluation of products sourced from European Union member countries”, International Journal of Commerce and Management , 2010, 20(2), 167−87.
  • Automotive Manufacturers Association: Turkey, March 2011, Automotive Industry: Evaluation Report of 2010, No: 2011/5, 1-19.
  • Automotive Manufacturers Association: Turkey, March 2011, News Bulletin, 1-28.
  • Automotive Report: Automotive Industry Report: Turkey, Sep 2009, The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited, 9-16.
  • Automotive Distributors Associaiton, “Otomotiv Ticaretinde Yol Haritası Gelecek 10 yıl”, Aslan, I. Y. et al. İstanbul 2009.
  • BAKER,M.J. and MICHIE, J. Product country images: perceptions of Asian Cars, Working Paper, Department of Marketing, University of Strathclyde, 1995, 95(3).
  • BERRY, S., GRILLI, V. and Lopez de SILANES, “The Automobile Industry and the Mexico-US Free Trade Agreement”, NBER Working Paper, 1992, No.4152.
  • BERRY, S. “Estimating discrete-choice models of oligopoly product differentiation”, RAND Journal of Economics, 1994, 25, 242-62.
  • BERRY, S., LEVINSOHN, J. and PAKES A., “Automobile prices in market equilibrium”, Econometrica, 1995, 63, (4), 841-90.
  • BRESNAHAN, T. F. “Departures from Marginal Cost Pricing in the American Automobile Industry”, Econometrica, Nov, 1981, 201-27.
  • CARLSON, R. L.) “Seemingly unrelated regression and the demand for automobiles of different sizes, 1965-75: a disaggregated approach”, Journal of Business, 1978, 51, (2), 243-62.
  • CHAKRABORTY, G., ALLRED, A.T. and BRISTOL, T., Exploring consumers’ evaluations of counterfeits: the roles of country of origin and ethnocentrism, Advances in Consumer Research, 1996, 23, 379-384.
  • CHINEN, K., ENOMOTO, C. and CASTLEY,D., The Country of Origin Effect on Toyotas Made in Japan, the USA and Mexico, The Journal of Brand Management, 2000, 8(2), 139-148.
  • CHOWDHURY, Md. H. K. “The cognitive foundations of partitioned country-of-origin: a causal path analysis”, International Journal of Marketing Studies, 2010, 2(2), 258-66.
  • DIXIT, A., “Optimal Trade and Industrial Policies for the U.S. Automobile Industry”, Empirical Methods for International Trade, Ed: R. Feenstra, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1988, 141-165.
  • GALLANT, A. R. and JORGENSON, D. W. “Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear,implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation”, Journal of Econometrics, 1979, 11, 275-302.
  • GOLDBERG, P. K. “Product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets: the case of automobile industry”, Econometrica, 1995, 63, (4), 891
  • HAN, H. T. “The investigation of country of origin effect using Taiwanese consumers’ perceptions of luxury handbags as example”, The Journal of American Academy of Business, 2010, 15 (2), 66-72.
  • HAN,C.M., Country image: halo or summary construct?, Journal of Marketing Research, 1989, 26, 222-229.
  • HAN, C.M. and TERPSTRA, V., COO effetcs for uni-national and binational products, Journal of International Business Studies, 1988, 19, 235- 256.
  • HAUBL, G., A cross national investigation of the effects of country of origin and brand name on the evaluation of a new car, International Marketing Review, 1996, 13(5), 76-97.
  • JOSIASSEN, A. “Young Australian consumers and the COO effect: investigation of the moderating roles of product involvement and perceived product-origin congruence”, Australian Marketing Journal, 2010, 18, 23-7.
  • JOHANSSON,J.K and NEBEZZAHL, I.D., COO, social norms and behavioral intentions, Advances in International Marketing, 1987, 2, 65-79.
  • KUMARA, S. and CANHUA, K. “Perceptions of Country of Origin: an Approach to identifying Expectations of Foreign Products”, Brand Management, 2010, 17, 5, 343-53.
  • LAWRENCE, C., MARR, N.E. and PRENDERGAST, G.P., Country of origin stereotyping: A case study in the New Zealand motor vehicle industry, Asia Pacific International Journal of Marketing, 1992, 4(1), 37-51.
  • LEVIN,I and JASPER, J.,MITTELSTAEDT, J. and GAETH, G. Attitudes towards “ Buy America First and Preferences for American and Japanese Cars”, A different role for country of origin information, Advances in Consumer Research, 1993, 20(1), 625-629.
  • LEVINSOHN, J., “Empirics of Taxes on Differentiated Products: The case of Tariffs in the U.S. automobile industry”, Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, Ed: R. E. Baldwin, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988, 11- 40.
  • McFADDEN, D. “Modelling the choice of residential location”, In A. Karlqvist et al., eds., Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models. 1978, New York: North-Holland.
  • OZCAM, A., JUDGE, G., BERA, A. and YANCEY, T. “The risk properties of a pre-test estimator for Zellner’s seemingly unrelated regression model”. Mimeo., Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, 1991.
  • PRENDERGAST, G. P., TSANG, A. S. L. and CHAN, C. N. W. “The Interactive Influence of COO of Brand and Product Involvement on Purchase Intention”, Journal of Consumer Marketing, 2010, 27(2), 180-8.
  • ROSEN, S. “Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition”, Journal of Political Economy, 1974, 82, 34-55.
  • SADRUDUN,A.A. and d’ASTOUS, A., Muilidimensional country of origin effects on product evaluations: A study in Morocco, International Journal of Commerce and Management, 1995, 5(3), 32-45.
  • STURGEO, T. and FLORIDA, R. “Globalization and jobs in the automotive industry”, Final report to the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, A study by CMU and MIT, 2000.
  • TARR, D. G. and MORKRE, M. E., Aggregate Costs to the United States of Tariffs and Quotas on Imports.Bureau of Economics Staff Report, Washington, D. C.: Federal Trade Commission, 1984.
  • TIGLI, M., PIRTINI, S. and ERDEM, Y. C. “The Perceived Country of Origin Images in Turkey”, International Business and Economics Research Journal, 2010, August (9), 8, 127-33.
  • TODER, E., CARDELL, N. S. and BURTON, E., Trade Policy and the U.S. Automobile Industry. New York: Praeger, 1978.
  • TRANDEL, G. A “The bias due to omitting quality when estimating automobile demand”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1991, 73, 522- 25.
  • VERBOVEN, F. “International price discrimination in the European car market”, RAND Journal of Economics, 1996, 27, 240-68.
  • VERLEGH, P. and STEENKAMP, J.B., Review and meta analysis of country of origin research, Journal of Economic Psychology, 1999. 20(5), 521- 546.
  • WETZEL, J. and HOFFER, G. “Consumer demand for automobiles: A disaggregated market approach”, Journal of Consumer Research, 1982, 9, 195
  • WONG, C. Y. et al. “The impact of consumer ethnocentrism and country of origin sub-components on young Chinese consumers’ assessments”, Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 2008, 20 (4), 455-78.

A REVIEW OF ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF CONSUMER DEMAND FOR AUTOMOBILES AND THE COUNTRY OF ORIGIN (COO) EFFECTS

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 97 - 132, 25.06.2012

Öz

The demand for automobiles has always been an important area for the application of various theoretical econometric models and the automotive industry remains to be the leading export sector in Turkey. This paper surveys a range of important developments in the modeling and estimation of demand for new automobiles in various regions like the U.S., Europe, and Turkey. The applied econometrician can acquire a good perspective when constructing such a model and deciding on the most appropriate econometric estimation technique. However, the applied econometrician is cautioned against some of the difficulties in modeling and forecasting the demand for automobiles. Since the Country of Origin (COO) effect is known to be an important factor in explaining the demand for products including automobiles, we also review the marketing literature investigating the consumers’ biases about products related to the country in which they are made.

Kaynakça

  • ALPER, C. E. and MUMCU, A. “Interaction between price, quality and country of origin when estimating automobile demand: the case of Turkey”, Applied Economics, 2007, 39, 1789−96.
  • APIL, A. R. and KAYNAK, E. “Georgian consumers’ evaluation of products sourced from European Union member countries”, International Journal of Commerce and Management , 2010, 20(2), 167−87.
  • Automotive Manufacturers Association: Turkey, March 2011, Automotive Industry: Evaluation Report of 2010, No: 2011/5, 1-19.
  • Automotive Manufacturers Association: Turkey, March 2011, News Bulletin, 1-28.
  • Automotive Report: Automotive Industry Report: Turkey, Sep 2009, The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited, 9-16.
  • Automotive Distributors Associaiton, “Otomotiv Ticaretinde Yol Haritası Gelecek 10 yıl”, Aslan, I. Y. et al. İstanbul 2009.
  • BAKER,M.J. and MICHIE, J. Product country images: perceptions of Asian Cars, Working Paper, Department of Marketing, University of Strathclyde, 1995, 95(3).
  • BERRY, S., GRILLI, V. and Lopez de SILANES, “The Automobile Industry and the Mexico-US Free Trade Agreement”, NBER Working Paper, 1992, No.4152.
  • BERRY, S. “Estimating discrete-choice models of oligopoly product differentiation”, RAND Journal of Economics, 1994, 25, 242-62.
  • BERRY, S., LEVINSOHN, J. and PAKES A., “Automobile prices in market equilibrium”, Econometrica, 1995, 63, (4), 841-90.
  • BRESNAHAN, T. F. “Departures from Marginal Cost Pricing in the American Automobile Industry”, Econometrica, Nov, 1981, 201-27.
  • CARLSON, R. L.) “Seemingly unrelated regression and the demand for automobiles of different sizes, 1965-75: a disaggregated approach”, Journal of Business, 1978, 51, (2), 243-62.
  • CHAKRABORTY, G., ALLRED, A.T. and BRISTOL, T., Exploring consumers’ evaluations of counterfeits: the roles of country of origin and ethnocentrism, Advances in Consumer Research, 1996, 23, 379-384.
  • CHINEN, K., ENOMOTO, C. and CASTLEY,D., The Country of Origin Effect on Toyotas Made in Japan, the USA and Mexico, The Journal of Brand Management, 2000, 8(2), 139-148.
  • CHOWDHURY, Md. H. K. “The cognitive foundations of partitioned country-of-origin: a causal path analysis”, International Journal of Marketing Studies, 2010, 2(2), 258-66.
  • DIXIT, A., “Optimal Trade and Industrial Policies for the U.S. Automobile Industry”, Empirical Methods for International Trade, Ed: R. Feenstra, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1988, 141-165.
  • GALLANT, A. R. and JORGENSON, D. W. “Statistical inference for a system of simultaneous, non-linear,implicit equations in the context of instrumental variable estimation”, Journal of Econometrics, 1979, 11, 275-302.
  • GOLDBERG, P. K. “Product differentiation and oligopoly in international markets: the case of automobile industry”, Econometrica, 1995, 63, (4), 891
  • HAN, H. T. “The investigation of country of origin effect using Taiwanese consumers’ perceptions of luxury handbags as example”, The Journal of American Academy of Business, 2010, 15 (2), 66-72.
  • HAN,C.M., Country image: halo or summary construct?, Journal of Marketing Research, 1989, 26, 222-229.
  • HAN, C.M. and TERPSTRA, V., COO effetcs for uni-national and binational products, Journal of International Business Studies, 1988, 19, 235- 256.
  • HAUBL, G., A cross national investigation of the effects of country of origin and brand name on the evaluation of a new car, International Marketing Review, 1996, 13(5), 76-97.
  • JOSIASSEN, A. “Young Australian consumers and the COO effect: investigation of the moderating roles of product involvement and perceived product-origin congruence”, Australian Marketing Journal, 2010, 18, 23-7.
  • JOHANSSON,J.K and NEBEZZAHL, I.D., COO, social norms and behavioral intentions, Advances in International Marketing, 1987, 2, 65-79.
  • KUMARA, S. and CANHUA, K. “Perceptions of Country of Origin: an Approach to identifying Expectations of Foreign Products”, Brand Management, 2010, 17, 5, 343-53.
  • LAWRENCE, C., MARR, N.E. and PRENDERGAST, G.P., Country of origin stereotyping: A case study in the New Zealand motor vehicle industry, Asia Pacific International Journal of Marketing, 1992, 4(1), 37-51.
  • LEVIN,I and JASPER, J.,MITTELSTAEDT, J. and GAETH, G. Attitudes towards “ Buy America First and Preferences for American and Japanese Cars”, A different role for country of origin information, Advances in Consumer Research, 1993, 20(1), 625-629.
  • LEVINSOHN, J., “Empirics of Taxes on Differentiated Products: The case of Tariffs in the U.S. automobile industry”, Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, Ed: R. E. Baldwin, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988, 11- 40.
  • McFADDEN, D. “Modelling the choice of residential location”, In A. Karlqvist et al., eds., Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models. 1978, New York: North-Holland.
  • OZCAM, A., JUDGE, G., BERA, A. and YANCEY, T. “The risk properties of a pre-test estimator for Zellner’s seemingly unrelated regression model”. Mimeo., Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, 1991.
  • PRENDERGAST, G. P., TSANG, A. S. L. and CHAN, C. N. W. “The Interactive Influence of COO of Brand and Product Involvement on Purchase Intention”, Journal of Consumer Marketing, 2010, 27(2), 180-8.
  • ROSEN, S. “Hedonic prices and implicit markets: product differentiation in pure competition”, Journal of Political Economy, 1974, 82, 34-55.
  • SADRUDUN,A.A. and d’ASTOUS, A., Muilidimensional country of origin effects on product evaluations: A study in Morocco, International Journal of Commerce and Management, 1995, 5(3), 32-45.
  • STURGEO, T. and FLORIDA, R. “Globalization and jobs in the automotive industry”, Final report to the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, A study by CMU and MIT, 2000.
  • TARR, D. G. and MORKRE, M. E., Aggregate Costs to the United States of Tariffs and Quotas on Imports.Bureau of Economics Staff Report, Washington, D. C.: Federal Trade Commission, 1984.
  • TIGLI, M., PIRTINI, S. and ERDEM, Y. C. “The Perceived Country of Origin Images in Turkey”, International Business and Economics Research Journal, 2010, August (9), 8, 127-33.
  • TODER, E., CARDELL, N. S. and BURTON, E., Trade Policy and the U.S. Automobile Industry. New York: Praeger, 1978.
  • TRANDEL, G. A “The bias due to omitting quality when estimating automobile demand”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1991, 73, 522- 25.
  • VERBOVEN, F. “International price discrimination in the European car market”, RAND Journal of Economics, 1996, 27, 240-68.
  • VERLEGH, P. and STEENKAMP, J.B., Review and meta analysis of country of origin research, Journal of Economic Psychology, 1999. 20(5), 521- 546.
  • WETZEL, J. and HOFFER, G. “Consumer demand for automobiles: A disaggregated market approach”, Journal of Consumer Research, 1982, 9, 195
  • WONG, C. Y. et al. “The impact of consumer ethnocentrism and country of origin sub-components on young Chinese consumers’ assessments”, Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 2008, 20 (4), 455-78.
Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA38BR29JC
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

AHMET Özçam Bu kişi benim

DİLEK SAĞLIK Özçam Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 25 Haziran 2012
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2012 Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Özçam, A., & Özçam, D. S. (2012). Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(1), 97-132.
AMA Özçam A, Özçam DS. Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. Haziran 2012;27(1):97-132.
Chicago Özçam, AHMET, ve DİLEK SAĞLIK Özçam. “Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 27, sy. 1 (Haziran 2012): 97-132.
EndNote Özçam A, Özçam DS (01 Haziran 2012) Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 27 1 97–132.
IEEE A. Özçam ve D. S. Özçam, “Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 27, sy. 1, ss. 97–132, 2012.
ISNAD Özçam, AHMET - Özçam, DİLEK SAĞLIK. “Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi 27/1 (Haziran 2012), 97-132.
JAMA Özçam A, Özçam DS. Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2012;27:97–132.
MLA Özçam, AHMET ve DİLEK SAĞLIK Özçam. “Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi”. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 27, sy. 1, 2012, ss. 97-132.
Vancouver Özçam A, Özçam DS. Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 2012;27(1):97-132.