Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey

Serdar Arslan

doi:10.29130/dubited.1234168

TR EN

Türkiye’de COVID-19 Vakalarının Farklı Önlemler Altında Tahminlemesi

Abstract

Korona virüs salgını 2019 sonunda başladı ve tüm dünyayı etkisi altına aldı. Türkiyede aşılama süreci 2021 senesini başlarında başlatıldı ama çok yavaş ilerledi. Bu yüzden, bu süreçte Türk Hükümeti virüs yayılımını engellemek için çeşitli önlemler aldı. Bu çalışmada, bu önlemlerin virüs yayılımına olan etkisini anlamak için beş farklı tahminleme modeli (ARIMA, Prophet, NARNN, Yığıt LSTM ve çiftyönlü LSTM) gerçek dünya verileri ile kullanıldı ve karşılaştırıldı. Test sonuçları önlemlere göre parçalanan veri setinde küçük olanlar için ARIMA ve Prophet’in diğer modellere göre iyi sonuçlar verdiğini gösterdi. Veri setinin büyüklüğü arttıkça derin öğrenme yöntemlerinin daha iyi sonuçlar ortaya koyduğu gözlemlendi. Fakat, önlemlere göre ayırmadan tüm veri setini tek bir seferde kullandığımızda bu modellerin performanslarının düştüğü gözlemlendi.

Keywords

COVID-19, Tahminleme, ARIMA, Prophet, NARNN, Derin öğrenme, LSTM

Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey

Abstract

The coronavirus disease started at the end of 2019 and affected all the countries in the world. In Turkey, the vaccination process started at the beginning of 2021 but performed in slow progress. Thus, the Turkish Government tried to implement precautions to control this virus's spread. In this study, we evaluated and compared five different forecasting models, ARIMA, Prophet, NARNN, Stacked LSTM, and Bidirectional LSTM, in order to show the effect of these precaution strategies on virus spread using a real-world data set. According to the test results, ARIMA and Prophet were found to be the most accurate models for small data sets that are split regarding precautions. Moreover, test results showed that when data size grows, LSTM model performance increases. However, these models' performance decreased when we fed these models by using the entire data set without splitting.

Keywords

COVID-19, Forecasting, ARIMA, Prophet, NARNN, Deep learning, LSTM

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Serdar Arslan ^*
0000-0003-3115-0741
Türkiye

Publication Date

July 31, 2024

Submission Date

January 14, 2023

Acceptance Date

October 2, 2023

Published in Issue

Year 2024 Volume: 12 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.29130/dubited.1234168

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA23XY46TM

APA

Arslan, S. (2024). Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey. Duzce University Journal of Science and Technology, 12(3), 1279-1295. https://doi.org/10.29130/dubited.1234168

AMA

1.Arslan S. Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey. DUBİTED. 2024;12(3):1279-1295. doi:10.29130/dubited.1234168

Chicago

Arslan, Serdar. 2024. “Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey”. Duzce University Journal of Science and Technology 12 (3): 1279-95. https://doi.org/10.29130/dubited.1234168.

EndNote

Arslan S (July 1, 2024) Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey. Duzce University Journal of Science and Technology 12 3 1279–1295.

IEEE

[1]S. Arslan, “Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey”, DUBİTED, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 1279–1295, July 2024, doi: 10.29130/dubited.1234168.

ISNAD

Arslan, Serdar. “Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey”. Duzce University Journal of Science and Technology 12/3 (July 1, 2024): 1279-1295. https://doi.org/10.29130/dubited.1234168.

JAMA

1.Arslan S. Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey. DUBİTED. 2024;12:1279–1295.

MLA

Arslan, Serdar. “Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey”. Duzce University Journal of Science and Technology, vol. 12, no. 3, July 2024, pp. 1279-95, doi:10.29130/dubited.1234168.

Vancouver

1.Serdar Arslan. Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey. DUBİTED. 2024 Jul. 1;12(3):1279-95. doi:10.29130/dubited.1234168

Türkiye’de COVID-19 Vakalarının Farklı Önlemler Altında Tahminlemesi

Abstract

Keywords

Forecasting of COVID-19 Cases Under Different Precaution Strategies in Turkey

Abstract

Keywords

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

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