Yem Fabrikalarında Yangın Anında İnsan Davranışının Modellenmesi: Hibrit Etmen Tabanlı ve Ayrık Olay Simülasyonu Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Bu çalışma, yem fabrikalarında meydana gelebilecek yangın durumunda insan davranışlarının modellenmesi amacıyla hibrit etmen tabanlı ve ayrık olay simülasyonu yaklaşımlarını entegre eden yenilikçi bir model sunmaktadır. Model, bina yapı özellikleri, kaçış yolları, merdiven ve çıkış kapıları gibi fiziksel faktörlerin yanı sıra, çalışanlar ile ziyaretçilerin yangın anındaki farklı tepki ve davranış kalıplarını dikkate alarak, gerçekçi bir tahliye senaryosu ortaya koymaktadır. Simülasyon sonuçları, eğitimli personelin tahliye süreçlerini daha etkin bir biçimde yönetebildiğini; eğitimsiz ziyaretçilerin ise bilinç eksikliği ve yavaş tepki verme eğilimleri nedeniyle süreci olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Özellikle çift merdiven ve çift çıkış kombinasyonunun, bireylerin farklı yönlere dağılmasını sağlayarak sıkışma noktalarını minimize ettiği ve tahliye süresini belirgin biçimde kısalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Hibrit model, yangın anında bireysel karar alma mekanizmalarını, panik durumlarını ve iletişim ağlarını da simülasyona entegre ederek, klasik modellerin ötesinde dinamik ve çok boyutlu bir analiz sunmaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, yangın güvenliği planlamalarında insan davranışının ve yapısal unsurların birlikte ele alınmasının kritik önem taşıdığını ortaya koymakta; aynı zamanda yüksek ve karmaşık yapılar için ek önlemlerin gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir. Geliştirilen model, yangın anında tahliye süreçlerinin optimize edilmesine yönelik stratejilerin belirlenmesinde değerli bir araç olarak kullanılabilir.

Keywords

• yem fabrikası
• yangın tahliyesi
• insan davranışı
• modelleme
• simülasyon

Modeling Human Behavior During Fire in Feed Mills: A Hybrid Agent-Based and Discrete Event Simulation Approach

Abstract

This paper presents an innovative model that integrates hybrid agent-based and discrete event simulation approaches to model human behavior during fire incidents in animal feed factories. The model takes into account both physical factors—such as building structure, escape routes, stairwells, and exit doors—and the distinct behavioral responses and decision-making patterns of employees and visitors during an emergency, thereby creating a realistic evacuation scenario. Simulation results demonstrate that trained personnel can manage evacuation processes more effectively, whereas untrained visitors negatively impact the process due to slower reaction times and a lack of situational awareness. Notably, the combination of dual stairwells and dual exits was found to minimize bottlenecks by allowing individuals to disperse in different directions, significantly reducing evacuation times. The hybrid model further incorporates individual decision-making mechanisms, panic responses, and communication networks into the simulation, offering a dynamic and multidimensional analysis that extends beyond traditional models. The findings underscore the critical importance of addressing both human behavior and structural factors in fire safety planning, while also highlighting the need for additional precautions in taller and more complex structures. Overall, the developed model serves as a valuable tool for formulating strategies aimed at optimizing evacuation processes during fire emergencies.

Keywords

• feed factory
• fire evacuation
• human behavior
• modeling
• simulation

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