Öz
Ekonomik değişkenlerin ülkelerin ekonomik gelişim süreçleri içerisinde doğal bir kanuna bağlı olarak hareket ettikleri inanışı oldukça eskidir. Uluslararası iktisat literatüründe bu fikrin en önemli örneklerinden birisi ödemeler bilânçosu aşamaları teorisidir. Teoriye göre ülkelerin ödemeler bilânçoları ekonomik gelişme süreçlerine bağlı olarak farklı aşamalardan oluşan bir sıra içerisinde ilerler. Bu araştırmada ödemeler bilânçosu aşamaları teorisinin geçerliliği Türkiye örneğinde sınanmıştır. 1968–2004 dönemi için yapılan istatistiksel analiz, Türkiye’nin ödemeler bilânçosunun teoride öngörüldüğü gibi bir süreç izlemediğini göstermiştir
Kaynakça
- BRANSON W. H., I. GUERRERO and B. H. GUNTER (1998): “Patterns of Development, 1970– 1994”, World Bank Institute, Working Paper.
- CHINN, M.D. and E. S. PRASAD (2003): “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries. An Empirical Exploration”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 59, pp: 47-76.
- FISCHER, S. and J. A FRENKEL,. (1974): “Economic Growth and Stages of the Balance of Payments”, in Horwich, G. and Samuelson P. A. (Eds), Trade, Stability and Macroeconomics, Academic Pres, New York.
- FREUND, J. E. (2002): Matematiksel İstatistik, (Çev: Ü. Şenesen), Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
- HALEVI, N. (1971): “An Empirical Test of the “Balance of Payments Stage” Hypothesis”, Journal of International Economics, Vol.1, pp: 103–117.
- HITIRIS, T. (1988): “U.S. Balance-of-Payments Stages 1790-1985: A Statistical Investigation”, The International Trade Journal, Vol. 2, No.3, pp: 247- 262.
- KINDLEBERGER, C. P. (1968): International Economics, (4th Ed.) Homewood, Irwin.
- KINDLEBERGER, C. P. (1969): “Measuring Equilibrium in the Balance of Payments”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, No. 6, pp: 873-891.
- LANE P. R. and G. MİLESİ-FERRETTİ (2001): “Long-Term Capital Movements”, NBER Working Paper, No: 8366.
- MEIER, G. M. (1964): Leading Issues in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, New York.
- NEWBOLD, P. (2000): İşletme ve İktisat için İstatistik, (Çev: Ümit Şenesen), Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
- RAZGALLAH, B. (2004): “The Balance of Payments Stages Hypothesis: A Reappraisal”, Economic, Econometric and Cross-Disciplinary Aspects of European Union Enlargement Conference, European University Institute (Florence), May 13th - 15th, 2004.
- ROMANS, J. T. and S. A. WARREN (1990): “A Balance of Payments Analysis of the Latin American Debt Crisis”, Review of Income and Wealth, Series. 36, No. 2, June, pp: 207-213.
- SAMUELSON, P. A. (1967): Economics, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Öz
It is believed that the pattern of a country’s
balance of payments is linked to level of economic
development. Balance of payments stages thesis
states that the stages occur as the economy moves
thorough phases growth. This paper examines the
empirical relevance of the balance of payments
stages in Turkish case. Runs up and down test show
that Turkey balance of payments has not fallowed
any regular pattern. Therefore balance o payments
stages thesis is not verified with Turkish data
(1968-2004).
Kaynakça
- BRANSON W. H., I. GUERRERO and B. H. GUNTER (1998): “Patterns of Development, 1970– 1994”, World Bank Institute, Working Paper.
- CHINN, M.D. and E. S. PRASAD (2003): “Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries. An Empirical Exploration”, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 59, pp: 47-76.
- FISCHER, S. and J. A FRENKEL,. (1974): “Economic Growth and Stages of the Balance of Payments”, in Horwich, G. and Samuelson P. A. (Eds), Trade, Stability and Macroeconomics, Academic Pres, New York.
- FREUND, J. E. (2002): Matematiksel İstatistik, (Çev: Ü. Şenesen), Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
- HALEVI, N. (1971): “An Empirical Test of the “Balance of Payments Stage” Hypothesis”, Journal of International Economics, Vol.1, pp: 103–117.
- HITIRIS, T. (1988): “U.S. Balance-of-Payments Stages 1790-1985: A Statistical Investigation”, The International Trade Journal, Vol. 2, No.3, pp: 247- 262.
- KINDLEBERGER, C. P. (1968): International Economics, (4th Ed.) Homewood, Irwin.
- KINDLEBERGER, C. P. (1969): “Measuring Equilibrium in the Balance of Payments”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, No. 6, pp: 873-891.
- LANE P. R. and G. MİLESİ-FERRETTİ (2001): “Long-Term Capital Movements”, NBER Working Paper, No: 8366.
- MEIER, G. M. (1964): Leading Issues in Development Economics, Oxford University Press, New York.
- NEWBOLD, P. (2000): İşletme ve İktisat için İstatistik, (Çev: Ümit Şenesen), Literatür Yayınları, İstanbul.
- RAZGALLAH, B. (2004): “The Balance of Payments Stages Hypothesis: A Reappraisal”, Economic, Econometric and Cross-Disciplinary Aspects of European Union Enlargement Conference, European University Institute (Florence), May 13th - 15th, 2004.
- ROMANS, J. T. and S. A. WARREN (1990): “A Balance of Payments Analysis of the Latin American Debt Crisis”, Review of Income and Wealth, Series. 36, No. 2, June, pp: 207-213.
- SAMUELSON, P. A. (1967): Economics, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Ayrıntılar
| Diğer ID | JA97VZ97VU |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Ekim 2006 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2006 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2 |