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Analytical Quantitative Study for Forecasting Methods of the Numbers of Students in Palestinian Schools

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 10 , 39 - 51, 12.09.2018

Öz

The forecasting process of the total number of students in Palestine contributes in studying the future educational needs by government and policy makers. The more accurate the forecasting, the more it contributes in saving time, effort, and money when providing educational services. It also contributes in providing other valuable information such as buildings, human and financial resources, and educational plans required. Since these services rely heavily on the accuracy of the forecasting, choosing an inappropriate method will result in unrealistic predictions that may lead to an increase or decrease in budgeted costs, and ultimately to a failed planning process. In this paper, six mathematical forecasting methods were discussed, and then utilized to forecast the number of students for a specific number of years. In order to compare and evaluate the performance and accuracy of the methods, the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), and Root Mean Square Error (RSME) common measurements were used to find the most accurate and suitable method to the Palestinian reality. The study find that the exponential method is the most accurate and suitable to the Palestinian reality, and it recommends that not to use the same method to forecast the student numbers for periods longer than a decade. 

Kaynakça

  • Abbasov, A.M & Mamedova, M.H, (2003). Application of fuzzy time series to population forecasting. Vienna University of Technology ,CORP, 545-552 Adelamar,N.A..(2002). Population Projections without Trying, Data Users Conference September 24, 2002. From the internet on: May/5/2015 from: https://bber.unm.edu/presentations/projections.pdf Alsawah, A. (2013).Three Main Reasons Behind the Shortage of University Professors Crisis, Alshahid, retrieved on Dec. 28, 2016 from: http://www.alshahedkw.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=96551:-3-------&catid=31:03&Itemid=419 Bogazi,F. , Bogleethah, I. & Salama,W.(2015).The Effectiveness of Predicting in the Administrative System. The University of National Sixth Meeting about: the use of quantitative techniques in taking management decisions of the Algerian economic institutions. retrieved on Dec. 12, 2016 from: www.kantakji.com/media/2041/f256.doc, Chapin,T., & Diaz-Venegas,C..(2007). Local Government Guide To Population Estimation And Projection Techniques. Florida Department of Community Affairs ,Florida State University. retrieved Jan/2/2017 from: http://fpdl.coss.fsu.edu/content/download/75564/828103/file/Local Chockalingam, M. (2009). Forecast Accuracy and Safety Stock Strategies, retrieved Jan,8th,2017 from: http://demandplanning.net/documents/dmdaccuracywebVersions.pdf Friendly Neighborhood Engineers.(2014). Population Projection, retrieved Jan/2/2017 from: http://friendlyneighbourhoodengineers.blogspot.com/2014/04/population-projection.html Gawatre, D. , Kandgule, M. & Kharat, S. ( 2016). Comparative Study of Population Forecasting Methods, IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering , V 13, Issue 4 (Jul. - Aug. 2016), PP 16-19 George, M. V., Smith,S.K., Swanson,D.A. & Tayman,J.(2004). Population Projections, chapter 21, San Diego: Elsevier Academic Press Ibrahim, M.N.(2011). Future Studies Methods (Scenarios and Models). retrieved on Jan.2nd,2017 from: http://kenanaonline.com/users/drnoshy/posts/269418 Matar, L. H.K. (2012). The Future Population Size of The Province of Alnajaf, A study of Population Projection, The Education College Journal, Wasit,V(12), P: 287-317 Nichaphat, P. , Klot P.(2013). Forecasting Number of Students in University Department: Modeling Approach, Open Journal of Applied Sciences, 2013, V3, p293-297 Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. (2016). The Number of Students in Schools and kindergartens by Region and Stage in 1995 / 1994-2016 / 2015. retrieved on Dec. 18, 2016 from: http://www.pcbs.gov.ps/Portals/_Rainbow/Documents/Education-1994-2015-01A.htm Paul, G.P.E.(2012). Population Projections, retrieved Jan/5/2017 from: http://www.pdhcenter.com/courses/g142/g142content.pdf Qasem, A. (2013). The Importance of Educational Planning and its Characteristics, Types, Elements and Difficulties, Scientific and educational prospects. retrieved on Jan. 4th, 2017 from: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/mathematical-model.html Stanley, K. & Jeff. T.(2003). An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age. Demography ,Volume 40, Number 4, p 741-757 , November 2003 Trappey, C. & Wu, H-Y.(2007 ). An Evaluation of the Extended Logistic, Simple Logistic, and Gompertz Models for Forecasting Short Lifecycle Products and Services. Complex Systems Concurrent Engineering. pp 793-800
Yıl 2018, Cilt: 10 , 39 - 51, 12.09.2018

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Abbasov, A.M & Mamedova, M.H, (2003). Application of fuzzy time series to population forecasting. Vienna University of Technology ,CORP, 545-552 Adelamar,N.A..(2002). Population Projections without Trying, Data Users Conference September 24, 2002. From the internet on: May/5/2015 from: https://bber.unm.edu/presentations/projections.pdf Alsawah, A. (2013).Three Main Reasons Behind the Shortage of University Professors Crisis, Alshahid, retrieved on Dec. 28, 2016 from: http://www.alshahedkw.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=96551:-3-------&catid=31:03&Itemid=419 Bogazi,F. , Bogleethah, I. & Salama,W.(2015).The Effectiveness of Predicting in the Administrative System. The University of National Sixth Meeting about: the use of quantitative techniques in taking management decisions of the Algerian economic institutions. retrieved on Dec. 12, 2016 from: www.kantakji.com/media/2041/f256.doc, Chapin,T., & Diaz-Venegas,C..(2007). Local Government Guide To Population Estimation And Projection Techniques. Florida Department of Community Affairs ,Florida State University. retrieved Jan/2/2017 from: http://fpdl.coss.fsu.edu/content/download/75564/828103/file/Local Chockalingam, M. (2009). Forecast Accuracy and Safety Stock Strategies, retrieved Jan,8th,2017 from: http://demandplanning.net/documents/dmdaccuracywebVersions.pdf Friendly Neighborhood Engineers.(2014). Population Projection, retrieved Jan/2/2017 from: http://friendlyneighbourhoodengineers.blogspot.com/2014/04/population-projection.html Gawatre, D. , Kandgule, M. & Kharat, S. ( 2016). Comparative Study of Population Forecasting Methods, IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering , V 13, Issue 4 (Jul. - Aug. 2016), PP 16-19 George, M. V., Smith,S.K., Swanson,D.A. & Tayman,J.(2004). Population Projections, chapter 21, San Diego: Elsevier Academic Press Ibrahim, M.N.(2011). Future Studies Methods (Scenarios and Models). retrieved on Jan.2nd,2017 from: http://kenanaonline.com/users/drnoshy/posts/269418 Matar, L. H.K. (2012). The Future Population Size of The Province of Alnajaf, A study of Population Projection, The Education College Journal, Wasit,V(12), P: 287-317 Nichaphat, P. , Klot P.(2013). Forecasting Number of Students in University Department: Modeling Approach, Open Journal of Applied Sciences, 2013, V3, p293-297 Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics. (2016). The Number of Students in Schools and kindergartens by Region and Stage in 1995 / 1994-2016 / 2015. retrieved on Dec. 18, 2016 from: http://www.pcbs.gov.ps/Portals/_Rainbow/Documents/Education-1994-2015-01A.htm Paul, G.P.E.(2012). Population Projections, retrieved Jan/5/2017 from: http://www.pdhcenter.com/courses/g142/g142content.pdf Qasem, A. (2013). The Importance of Educational Planning and its Characteristics, Types, Elements and Difficulties, Scientific and educational prospects. retrieved on Jan. 4th, 2017 from: http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/mathematical-model.html Stanley, K. & Jeff. T.(2003). An Evaluation of Population Projections by Age. Demography ,Volume 40, Number 4, p 741-757 , November 2003 Trappey, C. & Wu, H-Y.(2007 ). An Evaluation of the Extended Logistic, Simple Logistic, and Gompertz Models for Forecasting Short Lifecycle Products and Services. Complex Systems Concurrent Engineering. pp 793-800
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Articles
Yazarlar

D. Rajaa Albool Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 12 Eylül 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 10

Kaynak Göster

APA Albool, D. R. (2018). Analytical Quantitative Study for Forecasting Methods of the Numbers of Students in Palestinian Schools. The Eurasia Proceedings of Educational and Social Sciences, 10, 39-51.