ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Levent Özbek; Hakan Demirtaş

doi:10.18038/estubtda.840307

EN TR

ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Abstract

In this study, cumulative and daily cases are estimated online using discrete-time Gompertz model (DTGM) and Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) based on the total COVID-19 cases between February 29-July 28, 2020 in USA, Germany, India, Russia, Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom, Brazil. Employing the data collected between February 29 and July 28, 2020, it is showed that the DTGM in conjunction with AKF provides a good analysis tool for modeling the daily cases made using the in terms of mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and R^2.

Keywords

COVID-19, Gompertz models, adaptive Kalman filter

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

-

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Levent Özbek ^*
0000-0003-1018-3114
Türkiye

Hakan Demirtaş This is me
0000-0003-2482-703X
United States

Publication Date

September 29, 2021

Submission Date

December 14, 2020

Acceptance Date

September 14, 2021

Published in Issue

Year 2021 Volume: 22 Number: 3

DOI

https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA33SA83DE

APA

Özbek, L., & Demirtaş, H. (2021). ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER. Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering, 22(3), 239-259. https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307

AMA

1.Özbek L, Demirtaş H. ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER. Estuscience - Se. 2021;22(3):239-259. doi:10.18038/estubtda.840307

Chicago

Özbek, Levent, and Hakan Demirtaş. 2021. “ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER”. Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 22 (3): 239-59. https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307.

EndNote

Özbek L, Demirtaş H (September 1, 2021) ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER. Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 22 3 239–259.

IEEE

[1]L. Özbek and H. Demirtaş, “ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER”, Estuscience - Se, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 239–259, Sept. 2021, doi: 10.18038/estubtda.840307.

ISNAD

Özbek, Levent - Demirtaş, Hakan. “ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER”. Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering 22/3 (September 1, 2021): 239-259. https://doi.org/10.18038/estubtda.840307.

JAMA

1.Özbek L, Demirtaş H. ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER. Estuscience - Se. 2021;22:239–259.

MLA

Özbek, Levent, and Hakan Demirtaş. “ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER”. Eskişehir Technical University Journal of Science and Technology A - Applied Sciences and Engineering, vol. 22, no. 3, Sept. 2021, pp. 239-5, doi:10.18038/estubtda.840307.

Vancouver

1.Levent Özbek, Hakan Demirtaş. ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER. Estuscience - Se. 2021 Sep. 1;22(3):239-5. doi:10.18038/estubtda.840307

ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Abstract

Keywords

ESTIMATION OF DAILY CASES OF COVID-19 AND REPRODUCTION NUMBER IN USA, GERMANY, INDIA, RUSSIA, ITALY, SPAIN, FRANCE, UNITED KINGDOM, BRAZIL USING DISCRETE TIME GOMPERTZ MODEL AND ADAPTIVE KALMAN FILTER

Abstract

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