The Effect of the Budget Deficit on Current Deficit, Economic Growth and Inflation in Some Developing Countries Implementing Fiscal Rule

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 52 - 58, 01.07.2021

Yasin Karadeniz

Öz

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of budget deficit on current account deficit, economic growth and inflation in the period 1994-2019 in 14 developing countries applying fiscal rules. Panel data models that take into account heterogeneity and cross-section dependence were used in the analysis. According to the results achieved; revealed that the budget deficit has an increasing effect on the current account deficit and a decreasing effect on the growth rate. On the other hand, no significant effect was detected on the inflation rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fiscal Rule, Current Account Deficit, Inflation, Panel Data Analysis, Budget Deficit

Mali Kural Uygulayan Bazı Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Bütçe Açığının Cari Açık, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Enflasyon Üzerine Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali kural uygulayan gelişmekte olan 14 ülkede 1994-2019 döneminde, bütçe açığının cari açık, ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Analizin gerçekleştirilmesinde heterojenliği ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel veri modellerinden faydalanılmıştır. Ulaşılan sonuçlar; bütçe açığının, cari açık üzerinde arttırıcı, büyüme oranı üzerinde ise azaltıcı etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Enflasyon oranı üzerinde ise anlamlı bir etki tespit edilememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mali Kural, Cari Açık, Enflasyon, Panel Veri Analizi, Bütçe Açığı

Kaynakça

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