Yıl 2019, Cilt 03 , Sayı 2, Sayfalar 39 - 46 2019-12-31

Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method

Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ [1] , Mehmet BOZOĞLU [2] , Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU [3] , Uğur BAŞER [4]


In 2017, 144 countries in the world produced 97.862.928 tons onion at 5.201.591 hectares. Turkey produced 2.1 million tons onion in 68 thousand hectares. Turkey was the seventh-largest producer country of dry onion with a share of 2,18% in the world. The main aim of this research was to forecast the onion area and production of Turkey for the period of 2019-2026. The data of this study was obtained from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organization and the time series covered the period of 1961-2018. Three Exponential Smoothing Methods were compared to model onion area and production and Holt Exponential Smoothing model was determined as the most appropriate forecasting model. In the study, time series data were determined as non-stationary and so, stationarity was obtained after taking the first difference of the time series. Model results show that, in the 2019-2026 period, the forecasted sown area of onion would be increased from 58.873 hectares to 60.981 hectares, forecasted production of onion would be increased from 2.066.453 tons to 2.309.751 tons. In order to reduce the effect of Cobweb theorem, onion production should be planned by producer organizations. The supply gap can be avoided by taking appropriate policy measures and this is necessary to maintain Turkey’s position in the world onion market.
Onion, Production, Sown area, Exponential Smoothing Method, Turkey
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Birincil Dil en
Konular Matematik
Yayınlanma Tarihi Aralık
Bölüm Articles
Yazarlar

Orcid: 0000-0002-3607-4306
Yazar: Bakiye KILIÇ TOPUZ (Sorumlu Yazar)
Kurum: IĞDIR ÜNİVERSİTESİ, IĞDIR ZİRAAT FAKÜLTESİ
Ülke: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0000-0000-0000
Yazar: Mehmet BOZOĞLU
Kurum: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY
Ülke: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0000-0000-0000
Yazar: Nevra ALHAS EROĞLU
Kurum: TÜRKİYE İSTATİSTİK KURUMU BAŞKANLIĞI
Ülke: Turkey


Orcid: 0000-0000-0000-0000
Yazar: Uğur BAŞER
Kurum: ONDOKUZ MAYIS UNIVERSITY
Ülke: Turkey


Tarihler

Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Aralık 2019

Bibtex @araştırma makalesi { forecasting660377, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi İstatistik Bölümü, Güre Yerleşkesi, 28100 Merkez, Giresun}, publisher = {Giresun Üniversitesi}, year = {2019}, volume = {03}, pages = {39 - 46}, doi = {10.34110/forecasting.660377}, title = {Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method}, key = {cite}, author = {Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye and Bozoğlu, Mehmet and Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra and Başer, Uğur} }
APA Kılıç Topuz, B , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Başer, U . (2019). Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method . Turkish Journal of Forecasting , 03 (2) , 39-46 . DOI: 10.34110/forecasting.660377
MLA Kılıç Topuz, B , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Başer, U . "Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method" . Turkish Journal of Forecasting 03 (2019 ): 39-46 <https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/forecasting/issue/51702/660377>
Chicago Kılıç Topuz, B , Bozoğlu, M , Alhas Eroğlu, N , Başer, U . "Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 03 (2019 ): 39-46
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method AU - Bakiye Kılıç Topuz , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Uğur Başer Y1 - 2019 PY - 2019 N1 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.660377 DO - 10.34110/forecasting.660377 T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 39 EP - 46 VL - 03 IS - 2 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - doi: 10.34110/forecasting.660377 UR - https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.660377 Y2 - 2019 ER -
EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method %A Bakiye Kılıç Topuz , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Uğur Başer %T Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method %D 2019 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 03 %N 2 %R doi: 10.34110/forecasting.660377 %U 10.34110/forecasting.660377
ISNAD Kılıç Topuz, Bakiye , Bozoğlu, Mehmet , Alhas Eroğlu, Nevra , Başer, Uğur . "Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 03 / 2 (Aralık 2020): 39-46 . https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.660377
AMA Kılıç Topuz B , Bozoğlu M , Alhas Eroğlu N , Başer U . Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method. TJF. 2019; 03(2): 39-46.
Vancouver Kılıç Topuz B , Bozoğlu M , Alhas Eroğlu N , Başer U . Forecasting of Onion Sown Area and Production in Turkey Using Exponential Smoothing Method. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2019; 03(2): 39-46.