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## A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition

#### Erol EGRIOGLU [1] , Robert FİLDES [2]

M4 forecasting competition provided some useful information to forecasting literature. The provided information is based on calculated error metrics for ranking methods in the competition. The organizers of the competition calculated arithmetic mean as a descriptive statistic for evaluating the performance of all competitors. In this paper, the effect of different descriptive statistics for ranking of methods is investigated. It is found that the distribution of error metrics for competitor forecasting methods is not symmetric. Thus, the arithmetic mean descriptive statistic is not a good metric to determine the centre of non-symmetric distributions and it will not well present centre of the distribution. In this study, it is showed that the median will well present centre of distribution for error metrics of competitor forecasting methods. When the median is used as a descriptive statistic for ranking methods, the ranks of methods is different form ranks which are calculated according to the arithmetic mean descriptive statistics. Moreover, the direction accuracy metric is calculated for the best ten methods in the competition. So, the forecasting methods are ranked according to direction accuracy and it is showed that the ranks are different from the competition results.
M4 Forecast competiton, Error metrics, Direction Accuracy
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Birincil Dil en Matematik Articles Orcid: 0000-0003-4301-4149Yazar: Erol EGRIOGLU (Sorumlu Yazar)Kurum: Giresun UniversityÜlke: Turkey Orcid: 0000-0002-5918-7098Yazar: Robert FİLDESKurum: Lancaster UniversityÜlke: Turkey TUBİTAK 1059B191800872 Yayımlanma Tarihi : 31 Aralık 2020
 Bibtex @tartışma { forecasting841860, journal = {Turkish Journal of Forecasting}, issn = {}, eissn = {2618-6594}, address = {Giresun Üniversitesi Fen Edebiyat Fakültesi İstatistik Bölümü, Güre Yerleşkesi, 28100 Merkez, Giresun}, publisher = {Giresun Üniversitesi}, year = {2020}, volume = {04}, pages = {26 - 32}, doi = {}, title = {A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition}, key = {cite}, author = {Egrıoglu, Erol and Fildes, Robert} } APA Egrıoglu, E , Fildes, R . (2020). A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition . Turkish Journal of Forecasting , 04 (2) , 26-32 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/forecasting/issue/57893/841860 MLA Egrıoglu, E , Fildes, R . "A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition" . Turkish Journal of Forecasting 04 (2020 ): 26-32 Chicago Egrıoglu, E , Fildes, R . "A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 04 (2020 ): 26-32 RIS TY - JOUR T1 - A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition AU - Erol Egrıoglu , Robert Fildes Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - DO - T2 - Turkish Journal of Forecasting JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 26 EP - 32 VL - 04 IS - 2 SN - -2618-6594 M3 - UR - Y2 - 2020 ER - EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Forecasting A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition %A Erol Egrıoglu , Robert Fildes %T A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition %D 2020 %J Turkish Journal of Forecasting %P -2618-6594 %V 04 %N 2 %R %U ISNAD Egrıoglu, Erol , Fildes, Robert . "A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition". Turkish Journal of Forecasting 04 / 2 (Aralık 2020): 26-32 . AMA Egrıoglu E , Fildes R . A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition. TJF. 2020; 04(2): 26-32. Vancouver Egrıoglu E , Fildes R . A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition. Turkish Journal of Forecasting. 2020; 04(2): 26-32. IEEE E. Egrıoglu ve R. Fildes , "A Note on the Robustness of Performance of Methods and Rankings for M4 Competition", Turkish Journal of Forecasting, c. 04, sayı. 2, ss. 26-32, Ara. 2021

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