On the Growth Slowdown in Developed Economies

Yıl 2023, , 755 - 770, 25.01.2023

İlay Kurt

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1118395

Öz

2008 Küresel Mali Krizinden sonra, gelişmiş ekonomilerdeki uzun vadeli büyüme modelleri, büyümedeki yavaşlama ve seküler durgunluğa ilişkin iç karartıcı beklentiler nedeniyle daha yakından akademik incelemeye tabi tutulmuştur. Bu makale, gelişmiş ekonomilerde uzun vadeli büyümenin yavaşlayıp yavaşlamadığını ve ne ölçüde yavaşladığını doğrudan test etmek için ampirik yöntemler kullanan, çok sayıda ülke için uzun vadeli büyüme modelleri yapısının bir araştırmasını sunmaktadır. Bulgularımız, yüksek gelirli ekonomilerde, kişi başına GSYİH, çalışan başına GSYİH ve TFV'nin uzun vadeli büyüme oranlarının 1970-2019 döneminde net düşüş eğilimleri gösterdiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Growth slowdown, Developed Countries, Panel Data

Kaynakça

• Aeppel, T. (2014). Economists debate: Has all the important stuff already been invented?. The Wall Street Journal, 15.
• Aghion, P., & Bircan, C. (2017). The middle-income trap from a Schumpeterian perspective. ADB Working Paper Series, 521.
• Antolin-Diaz, J., Drechsel, T., & Petrella, I. (2017). Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(2), 343-356.
• Avila, R., Faria, H. J., Montesinos-Yufa, H., & Morales, D. (2006). Time Series Stochastic Properties Of Growth Miracles And Growth Disasters. International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER), 5(11).
• Baier, S. L., Dwyer Jr, G. P., & Tamura, R. (2006). How important are capital and total factor productivity for economic growth?. Economic Inquiry, 44(1), 23-49.
• Baily, M. N., & Lawrence, R. Z. (2001). Do we have a new e-conomy?. American Economic Review, 91(2), 308-312.
• Ball, L. (2014). Long-term damage from the Great Recession in OECD countries. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 11(2), 149-160.
• Blanchard, O. J., & Summers, L. H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. NBER macroeconomics annual, 1, 15-78.
• Byrne, D. M., Fernald, J. G., & Reinsdorf, M. B. (2016). Does the United States have a productivity slowdown or a measurement problem?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2016(1), 109-182.
• Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (2001). It’s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models. The World Bank Economic Review, 15(2), 177–219. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3990260
• Fernald, J. G. (2015). Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 29(1), 1-51.
• Fernald, J. G., & Jones, C. I. (2014). The future of US economic growth. American Economic Review, 104(5), 44-49.
• Fritz, M., Gries, T., & Feng, Y. (2019). Secular stagnation? Is there statistical evidence of an unprecedented, systematic decline in growth?. Economics Letters, 181, 47-50.
• Gordon, R. J. (2012). Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds (No. w18315). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Gordon, R. J. (2015). Secular stagnation: A supply-side view. American Economic Review, vol. 105(5), 54-59, May.
• Hall, R. E. (2015). Quantifying the lasting harm to the US economy from the financial crisis. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 29(1), 71-128.
• Hall, R. E., & Jones, C. I. (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others?. The quarterly journal of economics, 114(1), 83-116.
• Haltmaier, J. (2013). Do recessions affect potential output?. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (1066).
• Hansen, A. H. (1939). Economic progress and declining population growth. The American Economic Review, 29(1), 1-15.
• Jones, C. I. (2017). The productivity growth slowdown in advanced economies. In Investment and growth in advanced economies, conference proceedings (pp. 313-323). Sintra: ECB Forum on Central Banking.
• Kahn, J., & Rich, R. (2013). Productivity Model Update. December. http://newyorkfed. org/research/national_economy/richkahn_prodmod. pdf.
• Klenow, P. J., & Rodriguez-Clare, A. (1997). The neoclassical revival in growth economics: Has it gone too far?. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 12, 73-103.
• Mokyr, J. (2018). The past and the future of innovation: Some lessons from economic history. Explorations in Economic History, 69, 13-26.
• Plosser, C. I. (2014). Economic Growth and Monetary Policy: Is There a New Normal?. The George Washington University and Princeton University’s Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies, Philadelphia, 5-7.
• PWT 10.0 | Penn World Table | Groningen Growth and Development Centre | University of Groningen (rug.nl)
• Reifschneider, D., Wascher, W., & Wilcox, D. (2015). Aggregate supply in the United States: recent developments and implications for the conduct of monetary policy. IMF Economic Review, 63(1), 71-109.
• World Economic Situation and Prospects 2020 (un.org)