2008 Küresel Ekonomik Krizi ve Türkiye’de Sektör Karlılığı

Öz

2008 küresel ekonomik krizi, Dünya’nın son dönemde yüzleştiği en büyük ekonomik olaylardan birisidir. Finansal kesimde başlayan kriz, yayılmacı ve bulaşıcı etkisi ile kısa sürede az gelişmiş, gelişmekte olan ve gelişmiş ekonomilerin reel sektörlerine de sıçrayarak bütüncül bir ekonomik kriz halini almıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2008 krizinin Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren sektörlerin kârlılıklarına olan etkisini analiz etmektir. Çalışmada ayrıca, kriz döneminde kârlılığa hangi faktörlerin etki ettiği ve yapılan forecasting (tahmin) analizi ile kriz olmasa idi sektör kârlılıkları nasıl seyrederdi sorularına da cevap aranmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda 2006-2014 arası dönemde faktör maliyet ile katma değer, ihracat, yurt içi satışlar ve kambiyo kârının sektör kârlılıklarını anlamlı ve pozitif etkilediği, bunun yanında başta imalat sanayi olmak üzere inşaat ve ulaştırma sektörlerinin ise krizden anlamlı derecede etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Kriz etkilerinin minimize edilmeye çalışıldığı sonraki yıllarda ise uygulanan politikalar ile sektör kârlılıklarının toparlanma eğilimine girdiği ve hatta beklenen kârlılığın üzerine çıktığı görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• 2008 Krizi
• Forecasting Analizi
• Türkiye Ekonomisi

2008 Global Economic Crisis and Sector Profitability in Turkey

Abstract

The 2008 global economic crisis stands out as one of the most significant economic events in recent history. From originating in the financial sector, the crisis swiftly spread to the real sectors of developed and developing economies, its contagious effects exacerbating the situation. This study aims to examine the impact of the 2008 crisis on sectoral profitability in Turkey. Specifically, the study seeks to identify the factors that affected profitability during the crisis and to forecast sectoral profitability in the absence of the crisis. The findings of the study demonstrate that between 2006 and 2014, factor costs with value added, exports, domestic sales, and foreign exchange profits had a significant and positive impact on sectoral profitability. Furthermore, it was found that the construction and transportation sectors, particularly the manufacturing industry, were significantly affected by the crisis. However, in subsequent years, as efforts were made to mitigate the effects of the crisis, the profitability of the sectors began to recover, even surpassing the projected profits with the implementation of supportive policies.

Keywords

• 2008 Crisis
• Forecasting Analysis
• Turkish Economy

Kaynakça

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