The Effects of Electricity Generation from Solar and Wind Energy on the Day Ahead Market-Clearing Prices and Price Volatility: The Turkish Case

Öz

Solar and wind generation are the primary tools to prevent climate change and high carbon emissions. Due to their intermittent generation characteristics, solar and wind power plants have a different impact on the market-clearing price formation compared to conventional generation sources. The paper investigates the solar and wind generation effect on the day ahead market-clearing price in Turkey between the 2016 and 2022. We used a 2nd order polynomial learner model to analyze the impact of solar and wind generation level on the market-clearing price level and volatility. We find that Dutch TTF increases market-clearing price with a coefficient of 0.24. An increase in wind and solar generation reduce the market-clearing price. Solar generation is ineffective on the market-clearing price below a certain demand level. Wind generation reduces market-clearing price with a 37.78 coefficient at low demand levels and a 6.55 coefficient at high demand levels. Solar generation has a price-reducing effect with 5.55 at high demand levels. Finally, Dutch TTF and wind generation increased volatility with coefficients of 0.04 and 0.69; solar generation reduced volatility with a coefficient of 0.83.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Solar
• Wind
• Market-clearing Price
• Wholesale Electricity Markets
• Day Ahead Market

Güneş ve Rüzgar Enerjisinden Elektrik Üretiminin Gün Öncesi Piyasa Takas Fiyatlarına ve Fiyat Volatilitesine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Güneş ve rüzgardan elektrik üretimi; iklim değişikliği ve yüksek karbon emisyonunu önlemenin önde gelen araçlarındandır. Güneş ve rüzgar santralleri kesintili elektrik üretim karakterlerinden dolayı piyasa takas fiyatı oluşumunda konvansiyonel üretim kaynaklarına göre farklı bir etkiye sahiptir. Bu makale, 2016 ve 2022 yılları arasında Türkiye'de güneş ve rüzgardan elektrik üretiminin gün öncesi piyasa fiyatı üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Güneş ve rüzgardan elektrik üretim seviyesinin piyasa takas fiyat seviyesi ve oynaklığı üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmek için makine öğrenmesi ile 2. derece polinom öğrenmesi kullanılmıştır. Modellerin sonucu olarak, Hollanda TTF gaz fiyatının, piyasa takas fiyatını 0,24 katsayısı ile artırdığı bulunmuştur. Rüzgâr ve güneş enerjisi üretimindeki artışın, piyasa takas fiyatını düşürdüğü gözlemlenmiştir. Güneşten elektrik üretimi, belirli bir elektrik talep seviyesinin altında piyasa takas fiyatı üzerinde etkisizdir. Rüzgar üretimi, düşük talep seviyelerinde 37,78 katsayısı ve yüksek talep seviyelerinde 6,55 katsayısı ile piyasa takas fiyatını düşürmektedir. Güneşten elektrik üretimi yüksek talep seviyelerinde 5,55 ile fiyat düşürücü etkiye sahiptir. Son olarak, Hollandalı TTF gaz fiyatı ve rüzgar üretimi, sırasıyla 0,04 ve 0,69 katsayılarıyla oynaklığı artırmaktadır; güneş enerjisi üretimi 0,83 katsayı ile oynaklığı azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Güneş
• Rüzgar
• Piyasa Takas Fiyatı
• Toptan Elektrik Piyasaları
• Gün Öncesi Piyasası

Kaynakça

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