Askeri Harcamalar ve Gelir Eşitsizliği: Bir Panel Analizden Kanıtlar

Öz

Güvenlik her egemen devletin sağlaması gereken temel bir ihtiyaçtır. Güvenlik amaçlı yapılan askeri harcamalar, devletlerin bütçelerinde ve GSYİH içerisinde önemli bir yer tutmaktadır. Dünya Bankası (2020a) istatistiklerine göre, ülkelerin kamu harcamaları içerisinde ortalama askeri harcamalarının payı 2006 yılından bu yana azalmaya devam ederken, GSYİH’ye oranı da 1985 yılından günümüze neredeyse istikrarlı bir şekilde azalmaktadır. Bu azalışlar nispeten barışçıl bir dünyanın işaretleri olarak yorumlanabilir. Askeri harcamaların azalması, diğer ekonomik sektörlere daha fazla kaynak sağlanması anlamına geldiği gibi, ülke içerisinde gelir eşitliğinin de artması anlamına gelmektedir. Ülke düzeyinde gözlemler için panel regresyon analizi ve gelir eşitsizliğinin bir göstergesi olarak Gini endeksini kullanan bu çalışma, 2001-2019 yıllar arasında elli iki ülke için (28 NATO ve 36 OECD üyesi ülke dahil) askeri harcamaların gelir eşitsizliği üzerindeki etkisini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın ampirik temel bulguları şu şekilde özetlenebilir: Literatürle tutarlı olarak askeri harcamalar gelir eşitsizliğini önemli ölçüde artırmakta, hatta bulgular bu durumun gelişmiş ülkelerde de geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca bulgular ne NATO ittifakına üye olmanın ne de yönetişim etkinliğinin gelir eşitsizliğini önemli ölçüde etkilemediğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Askeri Harcamalar
• Gini Endeksi
• Gelir Eşitsizliği
• NATO
• OECD

Military Expenditures and Income Inequality: Evidence from a Panel Analysis

Abstract

Security is an essential need that must be ensured by any sovereign state. Military expenditures for security occupy an essential place in the budget of the states and even in the GDP. According to World Bank (2020a) statistics, average military expenditures of the countries within the government expenditures have continued to decrease since 2006, while as a share of GDP, it decreases almost steadily since 1985. Those decreases can be interpreted as signs of a relatively peaceful world. The decrease in military expenditures implies more resources for other economic sectors and also implies an increase in income equality within a country. Using a panel regression for country-level observations and the Gini index as a proxy for income inequality, this study aims to determine the impact of military expenditures on income inequality in fifty-two countries (including 28 NATO and 36 OECD member countries) over the period 2001-2019. The empirical key findings of the study can be summarized as follows: The military expenditures, consistent with the literature, increase significantly income inequality, and the findings even reveal that this situation is valid in developed countries. Moreover, the findings show that neither being a member of the NATO alliance nor governance effectiveness significantly impact the income inequality.

Keywords

• Military Expenditures
• Gini Index
• Income Inequality
• NATO
• OECD

Kaynakça

1. Albalate, D., Bel, G. & Elias, F. (2012). Institutional Determinants of Military Spending. Journal of Comparative Economics, 40(2), 279-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2011.12.006.
2. Ali, H. E. (2012). Military Expenditures and Inequality in the Middle East and North Africa: Panel Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(6), 575-589. https://doi.org/1 0.1080/10242694.2012.663578.
3. Amiti, M. & Davis, D. R. (2012). Trade, Firms and Wages: Theory and Evidence. The Review of Economic Studies, 79(1), 1-36. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdr016.
4. Biscione, A. & Caruso, R. (2019). Military Expenditures and Income Inequality Evidence from a Panel of Transition Countries (1990-2015). Defence and Peace Economics. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2019.1661218.
5. Blomquist, J. & Westerlund, J. (2013). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels with Serial Correlation. Economics Letters, 121(3), 374-378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2 013.09.012.
6. Chletsos, M. & Roupakias, S. (2018). The Effect of Military Spending on Income Inequality: Evidence from NATO Countries. Empirical Economics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-018-1576-7.
7. Elveren, A. Y. (2012). Military Spending and Income Inequality: Evidence on Cointegration and Causality for Turkey, 1963–2007. Defence and Peace Economics, 23(3), 289-301. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2011.578414.
8. Fontanel, J. & Samson, I. (2008). The Determinants of Military Expenditures. Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, 6, 125-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1572-8323(08)06008-6.

9. Graham, J. C. & Mueller, D. (2019). Military Expenditures and Income Inequality among a Panel of OECD Countries in the Post-Cold War Era, 1990-2007. Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy, 25(1). https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2018-0016.
10. Helpman, E., Itskhoki, O. & Redding, S. (2010). Inequality and Unemployment in a Global Economy. Econometrica, 78(4), 1239-1283. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA8640.
11. Hewitt, D. (1993). Military Expenditures 1972-1990: The Reasons Behind the Post-1985 Fall in World Military Spending. IMF Working Paper No. 93/18. https://ssrn.com/abstract=883444 (11.03.2022).
12. Higgins, M. & Williamson, J. G. (2002). Explaining Inequality: the World Round: Cohort Size, Kuznets Curves, and Openness. Southeast Asian Studies, 40(3), 268-302.
13. Hirnissa, M. T., Habibullah, M. Z. & Baharom, A. H. (2009). Defense Spending and Income Inequality: Evidence from Selected Asia Countries. International Journal of Economic and Finance, 1(2), 149-155.
14. Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with Cross-Sectional Dependence. The Stata Journal Number, 7(3), 281-312. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X0700700301.
15. Hou, D. (2018). The Determinants of Military Expenditure in Asia and Oceania, 1992-2016: A Dynamic Panel Analysis. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 24(3). https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2018-0004.
16. Jaumotte, F., Lall, S. & Papageorgiou, C. (2013). Rising Income Inequality: Technology or Trade Financial Globalization?. IMF Economic Review, 61(2), 271-309. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2013.7.
17. Kentor, J., Jorgenson, A. & Kick, E. (2012). The “new” Military and Income Inequality: A Cross National Analysis. Social Science Research, 41(3), 514-526. https://doi.org/10.1 016/j.ssresearch.2011.12.005.
18. Lin, E. S., Ali, H. E. & Yu-Lung, L. (2015). Does Military Spending Crowd Out Social Welfare Expenditures? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 33-48. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.848576.
19. Looney, R. & Frederiksen, P. (1990). The Economic Determinants of Military Expenditure in Selected East Asian Countries. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 11(4).
20. Menard, S. (2002). Applied Logistic Regression Analysis (2nd Edition). A Sage University Paper. https://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781412983433.
21. Meng, B., Lucyshyn, W. & Li, X. (2015). Defense Expenditure and Income Inequality: Evidence on Co-Integration and Causality for China. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(3), 327-339. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.810026.
22. Odehnal, J. (2015). Military Expenditures and Free-Riding in NATO. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 21(4), 479-487. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2015-0015.
23. Odehnal, J. & Sedlacik, M. (2015). The Demand for Military Spending in NATO Member Countries. ICNAAM 2014-AIP Conference Proceedings 1648.
24. Pesaran, H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 69(7). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.572504.
25. Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
26. Seiglie, C. (1992). Determinants of Military Expenditures. Economics of Arms Reduction and the Peace Process.
27. Seiglie, C. (1997). Deficits, Defense, and Income Redistribution. Cato Journal, Cato Institute, 17(1), 11-21.
28. SIPRI (2021). The SIPRI Military Expenditure Database. Stockholm: Stockolm International Peace Research Institute. https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex/sources-and-methods (25.01.2022).
29. Solarin, S. A. (2017). Determinants of Military Expenditure and the Role of Globalisation in a Cross-Country Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/10242694.2017.1309259.
30. Töngür, Ü. & Elveren, A. Y. (2013). Military Expenditures, Income Inequality, Welfare and Political Regimes: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Defence and Peace Economics, 26(1), 49-74. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.848577.
31. Vadlamannati, K. C. (2008). Exploring the Relationship between Military Spending & Income Inequality in South Asia. William Davidson Institute Working Paper No. 918.
32. Wolde-Rufael, Y. W. (2014). Defence Spending and Income Inequality in Taiwan. Defence and Peace Economics, 27(6), 871-884. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2014.886436.
33. Wolde-Rufael, Y. W. (2016). Military Expenditure and Income Distribution in South Korea. Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, 27(4), 571-581.
34. World Bank. (2020a). Poverty and Inequality. Washington: The World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/poverty-and-equity.
35. World Bank. (2020b). The Worldwide Governance Indicators. Washington: The World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators (24.01.2022).
36. World Bank. (2020c). World Development Indicators. Washington: The World Bank Group. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (19.01.2022).