Risk Algısının Güven Üzerine Etkisinin Deneysel Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada risk tutumları ayrışan ajanların güvene dayalı ilişkilerde farklı davranışlar sergileyip sergilemedikleri ve tecrübe edilen güven ilişkilerinin risk tutum ve tercihlerini etkileyip etkilemediği araştırılmıştır. İlgili çerçevede yazında giderek popüler hale gelen deneysel iktisat yöntemleri kullanılarak özgün bir melez tasarım hazırlanmıştır. Bireylerin risk tercihlerini analiz etmek amacı ile Holt & Laury (2002) tarafından geliştirilen çoklu fiyat listesi uygulamasından istifade edilmiştir. Bireyler arasındaki güven ilişkisini çözümlemek için ise Berg, Dickhaut & McCabe (1995) tarafından yazına kazandırılan klasik güven oyununun bir sürümü tercih edilmiştir. Deney sonucunda elde edilen veriler çeşitli istatistiki testler ve ekonometrik yöntemler ile analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, risk tercihlerinin güven kararı üzerinde belirleyici bir rolü olmadığını işaret etmektedir. Oysaki güven ilişkisi tecrübesinin bireylerin risk tercihlerini değiştirdiği gözlemlenmiştir. Bireyler güven ilişkisi sonucunda kendilerini kazançlı hissettiklerinde risk alma yatkınlıkları azalmaktadır. Ek olarak, bireylerin kendilerine yapılan transferleri iş birliğini arttırma sinyali olarak yorumlayıp daha fazla risk alma ve toplumsal optimuma yakınsama eğilimi içine girdikleri değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Güven
• Risk
• Deney

Experimental Analysis of the Effect of Risk Perception on Trust

Öz

This study examines whether individuals with different risk attitudes exhibit different behaviors in trust-based relationships and whether experienced trust relationships influence risk attitudes and preferences. An original hybrid design is employed via experimental economic methods, which are becoming increasingly popular in the literature. The multiple price list developed by Holt & Laury (2002) is used to analyze individuals' risk preferences. To analyze the trust relationship between individuals, a version of the classic trust game introduced by Berg, Dickhaut & McCabe (1995) is preferred. The data obtained from the experiment are analyzed using various statistical tests and econometric methods. The findings indicate that risk preferences do not have a decisive role in trust decisions. However, it has been observed that trust experiences do influence individuals' risk preferences. When individuals consider a gain, their inclination to take risks decreases. Additionally, it is considered that individuals interpret transfers made to them as signals of increased cooperation, leading them to take more risks and approach the social optimum.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trust
• Risk
• Experiment

Kaynakça

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