Measuring Financial Failure in Accommodation Companies During Financial Turbulence Periods: Altman Z, Zmijewski J and Springate S Score Models

Abstract

Financial turbulence creates an environment characterized by sudden occurrences that lead to uncertainty in both financial markets and national economies. Therefore, predicting financial failure during periods of financial turbulence is crucial for the future of firms. The measures that businesses take in the current period serve as an opportunity to prepare for potential future challenges. Otherwise, they may face the issue of financial failure. This study measures financial failure in nine accommodation companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. The time frame of the study encompasses periods identified as financial turbulence: the years 2008-2009, 2019-2020, and 2022-2023. During these years, significant events such as the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war occurred. The aim of this study is to assess the financial failure of accommodation enterprises during periods of financial turbulence. Altman (2000), Zmijewski (1984), and Springate (1978) financial failure prediction models are used to achieve this objective. The relationships among the models were tested using Spearman’s correlation analysis. The findings indicate that accommodation companies were most affected by the global financial crisis during periods of financial turbulence. Additionally, Spearman’s correlation analysis results revealed strong relationships between the Altman and Springate models, as well as between the Altman and Zmijewski models, suggesting that these models could potentially substitute for one another.

Keywords

• Altman Z
• Financial Turbulence
• Financial Failure
• Zmijewski J
• Springate S Score Models

Finansal Türbülans Dönemlerinde Konaklama İşletmelerinde Finansal Başarısızlık Ölçümü: Altman Z, Zmijewski J ve Springate S Skor Modelleri

Öz

Finansal türbülans, bir anda ortaya çıkan ve hem finansal piyasalarda hem ülke ekonomilerinde belirsizliğe yol açan bir ortamı doğurmaktadır. Dolayısıyla finansal türbülans dönemlerinde finansal başarısızlık tahmini yapmak, firmaların geleceği için oldukça önemlidir. İşletmelerin mevcut dönemde alacağı önlemler, geleceğe hazırlıksız yakalanmamaları adına bir fırsat niteliğindedir. Aksi hâlde finansal başarısızlık sorunu yaşamaları muhtemeldir. Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul’a kayıtlı 9 konaklama işletmesinin finansal başarısızlık ölçümü yapılmıştır. Çalışmanın zaman dilimi, finansal türbülans dönemleri olarak ifade edilen; 2008-2009 yılları, 2019-2020 yılları ve 2022-2023 yıllarından ibarettir. Bu yıllarda küresel finans krizi, Covid-19 salgını ve Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı gerçekleşmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı ise; finansal türbülans dönemlerinde konaklama işletmelerinin finansal başarısızlık ölçümünü gerçekleştirmektir. Altman (2000), Zmijewski (1984) ve Springate (1978) finansal başarısızlık tahmin modelleri yardımıyla bu amaç gerçekleştirilmeye çalışılmıştır. Modeller arasındaki ilişki ise, Spearman korelasyon analiziyle test edilmiştir. Bulgular ışığında; finansal türbülans dönemlerinde konaklama işletmelerinin en çok küresel finans krizinden etkilendiği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca Spearman korelasyon analizi sonucunda; Altman ile Springate ve Altman ile Zmijewski modelleri arasında güçlü ilişkiler saptandığı ve bu modellerin birbirlerini ikame edebilecekleri ortaya konmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Finansal Türbülans
• Finansal Başarısızlık
• Altman Z Skor
• Zmijewski J Skor
• Springate S Skor Modelleri

Kaynakça

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