The Impact of Digitalization on Unemployment in Türkiye: Investigating the Interactive Role of Education

Abstract

Digitalization has been a key part of production, improving efficiency but also raising concerns about its impact on jobs. There is no consensus in the literature on the impact of digitalization on unemployment. Some believe it will replace workers, while others argue that it can boost productivity and create new job opportunities. To enrich this discussion from a different perspective, this study aims to explore how digitalization affects the unemployment rate and the role of education in this relationship during the period 2001–2023, using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) technique in Türkiye. To represent digitalization, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique is applied to obtain a single indicator using the variables commonly used as proxies for digitalization in the literature, namely internet usage, broadband subscription, and mobile subscription. The results of this study can be listed as follows: i) Digitalization is associated with a higher unemployment rate. ii) However, when digitalization is coupled with an increase in the level of education, its effect on employment becomes more positive, as a more educated workforce is better equipped to adapt to the demands of the digital economy, ultimately reducing unemployment. iii) A higher GDP also decreases the unemployment rate. iv) To test the robustness of the FMOLS results, Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) is also applied, confirming their reliability. Based on these findings, several policy implications are discussed, and recommendations for future research in this field are provided.

Keywords

• Digitalization
• Unemployment
• Education

Dijitalleşmenin Türkiye'de İşsizliğe Etkisi: Eğitimin Etkileşimli Rolünün Araştırılması

Öz

Dijitalleşme üretimin önemli bir parçası haline gelerek verimliliği arttırmakta, ancak istihdam üzerindeki etkileri konusunda ise bazı endişelere sebep olmaktadır. Dijitalleşmenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi hakkında literatürde fikir birliği bulunmamaktır. Bazı çalışmalar dijitalleşmenin iş gücünün yerini alacağını öne sürerken, bazıları ise verimliliği artırarak yeni iş fırsatları yaratabileceğini savunmaktadır. Bu tartışmayı farklı bir bakış açısıyla zenginleştirmek amacıyla, mevcut çalışma dijitalleşmenin işsizlik oranını nasıl etkilediğini ve bu ilişkide eğitimin rolünü 2001–2023 döneminde Türkiye için, Tam Modifiye Edilmiş En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS) tekniğini kullanarak incelemeyi hedeflemiştir. Dijitalleşmeyi temsil etmek için, literatürde dijitalleşme için yaygın olarak kullanılan değişkenlerden, yani internet kullanımı, geniş bant aboneliği ve mobil abonelik değişkenlerinden tek bir gösterge elde etmek amacıyla Temel Bileşenler Analizi (PCA) tekniği uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları şu şekilde sıralanabilir: i) Dijitalleşme, daha yüksek bir işsizlik oranıyla ilişkilidir. ii) Fakat dijitalleşmeyle beraber eğitim seviyesinde artış meydana geldiğinde dijitalleşmenin istihdam üzerindeki etkisi pozitife dönmektedir, yani işsizlik oranını azalmaktadır. Çünkü daha eğitimli bir iş gücü dijital ekonominin işçi taleplerine cevap vererek işsizliğin azalmasına neden olmaktadır. iii) Daha yüksek bir GSYİH’de işsizlik oranını düşürmektedir. iv) FMOLS ile elde edilen sonuçların güvenilirliğini test etmek için, Kanonik Eşbütünleşme Regresyonu (CCR) metodu da uygulanmış ve sonuçların güvenilirliği doğrulanmıştır. Bu bulgulara dayanarak, birkaç politika önerisi tartışılmış ve bu alanda gelecekte yapılması planlanan araştırmalar için önerilerde bulunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dijitalleşme
• İşsizlik
• Eğitim

Kaynakça

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