Determinants of Cargo Handling Performance in Türkiye Ports: Time Series Analysis of Foreign Trade, Price Dynamics, and Global Uncertainties

Öz

This study aims to investigate the interactions between the cargo handling performance of Turkish ports and macroeconomic as well as global risk variables through multivariate time series analyses. The objective is to reveal the structural dynamics of port operations, long-term cointegration relationships, and the system’s responses to external shocks. Using Principal Component Analysis, the variables identified in the study were reduced to four structural factors: foreign trade and logistics capacity, pricing structures, global economic uncertainties, and operational factors related to transit transportation. The findings indicate the existence of at least three cointegration relationships within the system. Accordingly, a Vector Error Correction Model was constructed to analyze how deviations from the equilibrium are corrected in the short run. Furthermore, Impulse Response Functions were employed to evaluate the temporal effects of external shocks on the identified components. The results demonstrate that cargo handling performance in Turkish ports is shaped predominantly by factors representing foreign trade volume, logistics capacity, and structures sensitive to international price movements. These factors exhibit strong and rapid automatic adjustment mechanisms in response to short-term shocks. It was also observed that the factor representing global economic uncertainty tends to increase port activity during periods of heightened uncertainty, with this effect extending into the long term. Overall, the study presents an analytically grounded framework that structurally models the responses of port cargo handling performance to external shocks, offering a scientific basis for the formulation of port policies, infrastructure investments, and logistics strategies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cargo Handling Performance
• Port Efficiency
• Global Uncertainty
• The Time Series Analysis

Türkiye Limanlarında Yük Elleçleme Performansının Belirleyicileri: Dış Ticaret, Fiyat Dinamikleri ve Küresel Belirsizliklerin Zaman Serisi Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki limanların yük elleçleme performansları ile makroekonomik ve küresel risk değişkenleri arasındaki etkileşimleri çok değişkenli zaman serisi analizleri yoluyla inceleyerek, limancılık faaliyetlerinin yapısal dinamiklerini, uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme ilişkilerini ve dışsal şoklara karşı verilen tepkileri ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında belirlenen değişkenler, Temel Bileşenler Analizi yardımıyla dış ticaret ve lojistik kapasite, fiyat düzeylerine ilişkin yapılar, küresel ekonomik belirsizlikler ve transit taşımacılığa ilişkin operasyonel unsurlar olarak dört yapısal faktöre indirgenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, modelde en az dört eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Bu doğrultuda kurulan Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VHDM) aracılığıyla, sistemdeki denge sapmalarının kısa vadede nasıl düzeltildiği analiz edilmiş; ayrıca Etki-Tepki Fonksiyonları (ETF) ile dışsal şokların zaman içinde bileşenler üzerindeki etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye limanlarındaki yük elleçleme performansının, dış ticaret hacmi ve lojistik kapasiteyi temsil eden faktörler ile uluslararası fiyat hareketlerine duyarlı yapıların etkisi altında şekillendiğini göstermektedir. Bu faktörlerin, kısa dönemli şoklara karşı güçlü ve hızlı tepki veren otomatik düzeltme mekanizmalarına sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Küresel ekonomik belirsizlikleri temsil eden faktörün ise, belirsizlik artış dönemlerinde liman faaliyetlerinde artış eğilimi yarattığı ve bu etkinin uzun döneme yayıldığı görülmüştür. Çalışma, liman yük elleçleme performansının dışsal şoklara karşı verdiği tepkilerin yapısal olarak modellendiği analitik bir çerçeve sunarak, liman politikaları, altyapı yatırımları ve lojistik stratejilerin şekillendirilmesi açısından bilimsel bir zemin sağlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yük Elleçleme Performansı
• Liman Verimliliği
• Küresel Belirsizlik
• Zaman Serisi Analizi

Kaynakça

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