Measuring the Extents of Drama: A Geographically Weighted Regression Analysis of the Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism

Öz

In the study, the socio-economic determinants of terrorism are examined using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) analysis in the context of 81 provinces in Turkey. Firstly, on the purpose of investigating the validity of convergence process among the provinces and examining the effects of terrorism on the convergence process, the four regression models of convergence are used. The results of unconditional and conditional convergence analysis show that divergence process among the provinces is dominant and that terrorism accelerates divergence process. Secondly, the model estimation findings point out that the GWR model promotes the model fitting compared to global estimation coefficients. The outcomes of the analysis providing the non-linear relationship between the terrorism, income and democracy show that the roots of terrorism are stem from several factors in Turkey. In general, it is observed that the level of income, population, unemployment, foreign trade, inflation, poverty, inequality, crime rate, democracy, ethnic heterogeneity, residential instability and geographic location have a positive impact of terrorism while the level of education, consumption, hopefulness, happiness and military intervention have a negative effect on terrorist activity.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Geographically Weighted Regression,Turkish Economy,Terrorism,Socio-economic Determinants

Kaynakça

1. Akhmat, G., Zaman, K., Shukui, T. ve Sajjad, F. (2014). Exploring the Root Causes of Terrorism in South Asia: Everybody Should Be Concerned. Quality & Quantity. 48(6), 3065-3079.
2. Akyüz, K. ve Armstrong, T. (2011). Understanding the Sociostructural Correlates of Terrorism in Turkey. International Criminal Justice Review. 21(2), 134-155.
3. Barro, R. J. ve Sala-i-Martin, X. (1991). Convergence Across States and Regions. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 1, 107-182.
4. Benmelech, E., Berrebi, C. ve Klor, E. F. (2012). Economic Conditions and the Quality of Suicide Terrorism. The Journal of Politics. 74(1), 113-128.
5. Bergesen, A. J. ve Lizardo, O. (2004). International Terrorism and the World-System. Sociological Theory. 22(1), 38-52.
6. Berrebi, C. ve Ostwald, J. (2013). Earthquakes, Hurricanes and Terrorism: Do Natural Disasters Incite Terror?. Public Choice. 149(3-4), 383-403.
7. Blau, P. M. (1977). Inequality and Heterogeneity. New York: Free Press.
8. Blau, P. M., Blum, T. C. ve Schwartz, J. E. (1982). Heterogeneity and Intermarriage. American Sociological Review. 47(1), 45-62.

9. Blomberg, S. B. ve Hess, G. D. (2006). From (No) Butter to Guns? Understanding the Economic Role in Transnational Terrorism. SSRN Working Paper, No: 904026.
10. Blomberg, S. B. ve Rosendorff, B. P. (2006). A Gravity Model of Globalization, Democracy and Transnational Terrorism. USC Working Paper, No: C06-6.
11. Bravo, A. B. S. ve Dias, C. M. M. (2006). An Empirical Analysis of Terrorism: Deprivation, Islamism and Geopolitical Factors. Defence and Peace Economics. 17(4), 329-341.
12. Brockhoff, S., Krieger, T. ve Meierrieks, D. (2014). Great Expectations and Hard Times: The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 19, 1-30.
13. Burgoon, B. (2006). On Welfare and Terror: Social Welfare Policies and Political-Economic Roots of Terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 50(2), 176-203.
14. Campos, N. F. ve Gassebner, M. (2009). International Terrorism, Political Instability and the Escalation Effect. IZA Working Paper, No: 4061.
15. Caruso, R. ve Schneider, F. (2013). Brutality of Jihadist Terrorism: A Contest Theory Perspective and Empirical Evidence in the Period 2002-2010. Journal of Policy Modeling. 35(5), 685-696.
16. Choi, S. W. (2015). Economic Growth and Terrorism: Domestic, International and Suicide. Oxford Economic Papers. 67(1), 157-181.
17. Coggins, B. L. (2015). Does State Failure Cause Terrorism? An Empirical Analysis (1999-2008). Journal of Conflict Resolution. 59(3), 455-483.
18. Cruz-Lugovskyy, J. (2014). The Economic Determinants of Terrorism. International Journal of the Academic Business World. 8(2), 51-61.
19. Daniel, G., Arce, M. ve Sandler, T. (2003). An Evolutionary Game Approach to Fundamentalism and Conflict. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics. 159(1), 132–154.
20. Derin-Güre, P. ve Elveren, A. Y. (2014). Does Income Inequality Derive the Separatist Terrorism in Turkey?. Defence and Peace Economics. 25(3), 311-327.
21. DiPietro, W. R. (2015). Terrorism and National Morality. Journal of Economics and Public Finance. 1(1), 1-9.
22. Dreher, A. ve Fischer, J. A. V. (2010). Government Decentralization as a Distinctive for Transnational Terror? An Empirical Analysis. International Economic Review. 51(4), 981-1002.
23. Fotheringham, A. S., Charlton, M. E. ve Brunsdon, C. (1997). Measuring Spatial Variations in Relationships with Geographically Weighted Regression. Fisher, M. M. ve Getis, A. (Eds.). Recent Developments in Spatial Analysis içinde (ss. 60-85). Berlin: Springer.
24. Freytag, A., Krüger, J. J., Meierrieks, D. ve Schneider, F. (2011). The Origins of Terrorism: Cross-Country Estimates of Socio-Economic Determinants of Terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy. 27(1), 5-16.
25. Goldstein, K. B. (2005). Unemployment, Inequality and Terrorism: Another Look at the Relationship Between Economics and Terrorism. Undergraduate Economic Review. 1(1), 1-21.
26. Gries, T. ve Meierrieks, D. (2013). Do Banking Crisis Cause Terrorism?. Economics Letters. 199(3), 321-324.
27. Gurr, T. (1968). Psychological Factors in Civil Violence. World Politics. 20(2), 245-278.
28. Hamilton, L. C. ve Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Dynamics of Terrorism. International Studies Quarterly. 27(1), 39-54.
29. Huntington, S. (1996). The Clash of Civilizations and the Remarking of World Order. New York: Simon & Schuster.
30. Ismail, A. ve Amjad, S. (2014). Determinants of Terrorism in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation. Economic Modelling. 37, 320-331.
31. Kis-Katos, K., Liebert, H. ve Schulze, G. G. (2011). On the Origin of Domestic and International Terrorism. European Journal of Political Economy. 27(1), 17-36.
32. Krieger, T. ve Meierrieks, D. (2010). Terrorism in the Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 54(6), 902-939.
33. Krieger, T. ve Meierrieks, D. (2011). What Causes Terrorism. Public Choice. 147(1), 3-27.
34. Krueger, A. B. ve Maleckova, J. (2003). Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 17(4), 119-144.
35. Midlarsky, M. I., Crenshaw, M. ve Yoshida, F. (1980). Why Violence Spreads: The Contagion of International Terrorism. International Studies Quarterly. 24(2), 262-298.
36. Mirza, D. ve Verdier, T. (2008). International Trade, Security and Transnational Terrorism: Theory and a Survey of Empirics. Journal of Comparative Economics. 36(2), 179-194.
37. Murdie, A. ve Stapley, C. S. (2014). Why Target the ‘Good Guys’? The Determinants of Terrorism Against NGOs. Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations. 40(1), 79-102.
38. Olson, M. (1963). Rapid Growth as a Destabilizing Force. The Journal of Economic History. 23(4), 529-552.
39. Öcal, N. ve Yıldırım, J. (2010). Regional Effects of Terrorism on Economic Growth in Turkey: A Geographically Weighted Regression Approach. Journal of Peace Research. 47(4), 477-489.
40. Robison, K. K., Crenshaw, E. M. ve Jenkins, J. C. (2006). Ideologies of Violence: The Social Origins of Islamist and Leftist Transnational Terrorism. Social Forces. 84(4), 2009-2026.
41. Romer, P. M. (1986). Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy. 94(5), 1002-1037.
42. Savun, B. ve Phillips, B. J. (2009). Democracy, Foreign Policy and Terrorism. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 53(6), 878-904.
43. Shahbaz, M. (2013). Linkages Between Inflation, Economic Growth and Terrorism in Pakistan. Economic Modelling. 32, 496-506.
44. Shahbaz, M. ve Shabbir, S. M. (2011). Is Hike in Inflation Responsible for Rise in Terrorism in Pakistan?. MPRA Working Paper, No: 31236.
45. Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 70(1), 65-94.
46. Sönmez, S. ve Graefe, A. R. (1998). Influence of Terrorism Risk on Foreign Tourism Decisions. Annals of Tourism Research. 25(1), 112-144.
47. Tavares, J. (2004). The Open Society Assesses Its Enemies: Shocks, Disasters and Terrorist Attacks. Journal of Monetary Economics. 51(5), 1039-1070.
48. Testas, A. (2004). Determinants of Terrorism in the Muslim World: An Empirical Cross-Sectional Analysis. Terrorism and Political Violence. 16(2), 253-273.
49. Yıldırım, J., Öcal, N. ve Korucu, N. (2007). Analysing the Determinants of Terrorism in Turkey using Geographically Weighted Regression. Erişim Tarihi: 04.01.2016 http://www.ub.edu/sea2009.com/Papers/10.pdf
50. Yıldırım, J. ve Öcal, N. (2013). Analysing the Determinants of Terrorism in Turkey using Geographically Weighted Regression. Defence and Peace Economics. 24(3), 195-209.