Türk Futbol Takımlarının Avrupa Müsabakalarında Ev Sahibi Olma Avantajı ve Deplasman Dezavantajı

Öz

Ev sahibi avantajı (HA), takımların kendi sahalarında rakiplerinden daha fazla sayıda maç kazandığı, daha fazla gol attığı anlamına gelen bir kavram olarak kullanılmaktadır. Benzer şekilde, deplasman dezavantajı (AD), takımların deplasmanda rakiplerine kıyasla daha az puan toplaması, gol atması olarak açıklanabilir. Bu çalışmada, Avrupa kupalarında en az 30 maç oynamış 5 Türk takımının, 1991/1992 ve 2022/2023 sezonları arasında oynadıkları toplam 784 maç analiz edilmiş ve takım özelinde HA ve AD değerleri Genelleştirilmiş Tahmin Modelleri kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, beş Türk takımı da Avrupa kupalarında ev sahibi avantajına sahip olup, aynı zamanda deplasman dezavantajı yaşamaktadır. Ayrıca takımlar arasında istatistiksel bir fark bulunmamaktadır. Bununla birlikte, Belçika takımları, Türk takımlarının en fazla ev sahibi olma avantajı yaşadığı ve deplasman dezavantajı yaşamadığı takımlar olarak tespit edilmiştir. Buna karşın, Türk takımlarının en düşük HA değerine ve en yüksek AD değerine Ukrayna takımları karşısında sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Çalışma sonuçları, Türkiye deplasmanının tüm Avrupa takımları için zor olduğunu ve Türk taraftar desteğinin daha yüksek olduğu ülkelerde Türk takımlarının yaşadıkları deplasman dezavantajının diğer ülkelere kıyasla daha düşük olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Genelleştirilmiş Tahmin Modeli
• Futbol
• Türk futbolu
• Ev sahibi olma avantajı
• Deplasman dezavantajı

Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Football Teams in European Competitions

Abstract

Home advantage (HA) is used as a concept that means teams win more matches and score more goals than their opponents on their home field. Similarly, away disadvantage (AD) can be explained as teams scoring fewer points and scoring fewer goals away than their opponents. In this study, the matches played by 5 Turkish teams, played at least 30 matches in European competitions, between the 1991/1992 and 2022/2023 seasons, a total of 784 matches were analyzed and team-specific HA and AD values were estimated using Generalized Estimation Models. According to the results, all 5 Turkish teams have a significant HA in European competitions, but all teams also experience an AD and there is no difference among the teams in terms of both HA and AD. Furthermore, Belgian teams were found to be the teams where Turkish teams experienced the most home advantage and did not experience an away disadvantage. On the other hand, the teams with the lowest HA value and the highest AD value of Turkish teams were found to be Ukrainian teams. The results of the study show that playing in Türkiye is difficult for all European teams and that the AD of Turkish teams in countries with higher fan support is lower than in other countries.

Keywords

• Football
• Turkish football
• Home advantage
• Away disadvantage
• Generalized estimated model

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