The Financial Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Public Transportation and Sustainable Policy Recommendations: A Case Study of Eskişehir

Abstract

Financing of public transportation has been a challenge that needs to be concerned because ridership has decreased by up to 90% with the impact of COVID-19. This study presents sustainable policy recommendations and their cost-benefit analyses for the financing problems in public transportation caused by COVID-19. First of all, the public transportation data of Eskişehir-Turkey between the years 2018-2021 were investigated according to different public transportation modes, and financial losses were calculated for municipality. Secondly, within the scope of the study, six policies were recommended as follows: (i) different network and service plans for public transportation, (ii) new or improved low-budget public transportation, (iii) congestion pricing, (iv) bike, bike-sharing and e-scooter, (v) park and ride, (vi) pedestrianization. Crucial points in the implementation of policies and their possible financial impacts were investigated. According to the findings of the study, total ridership decreased 72.94 million in 2020 and 2021 compared to pre-COVID-19. In different modes, it was observed that the decrease buses ridership was higher than in trams. Municipality financial loss was calculated as $19.69-24.87 million. In the cost-benefit analysis results of recommended policies, net present value was calculated as 0.28-23.36 million $ according to different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. It has been foreseen that this is a very suitable period for the implementation of these policies, they could provide sustainable urban transportation and increase the quality of life as well as solving financial problems. 

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Public transport
• Financial evaluation
• Sustainable transport
• Transport policy

References

1. [1] Parajuli, A., Pojani, D., “Barriers to the pedestrianization of city centres: Perspectives from the Global North and the Global South”, Journal of Urban Design, 23(1): 142–160, (2018).
2. [2] Zhao, C., Carstensen, T.A., Nielsen, T.A.S., Olafsson, A.S., “Bicycle-friendly infrastructure planning in Beijing and Copenhagen—Between adapting design solutions and learning local planning cultures”, Journal of Transport Geography, 68: 149–159, (2018).
3. [3] Grava, S., Urban Transportation Systems. Choices for Communities, McGraw-Hill, New York, (2003).
4. [4] Saghapour, T., Moridpour, S., Thompson, R.G., “Public transport accessibility in metropolitan areas: A new approach incorporating population density”, Journal of Transport Geography, 54: 273–285, (2016).
5. [5] Yassin, H.H., “Livable city: An approach to pedestrianization through tactical urbanism”, Alexandria Engineering Journal, 58(1): 251–259, (2019).
6. [6] Haghshenas, H., Vaziri, M., Gholamialam, A., “Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan”, Cities, 45: 104–115, (2015).
7. [7] Redman, L., Friman, M., Gärling, T., Hartig, T., “Quality attributes of public transport that attract car users: A research review”, Transport Policy, 25: 119–127, (2013).
8. [8] Soni, N., Soni, N., “Benefits of pedestrianization and warrants to pedestrianize an area”, Land Use Policy, 57: 139–150, (2016).

9. [9] Atabani, A.E., Badruddin, I.A., Mekhilef, S., Silitonga, A.S., “A review on global fuel economy standards, labels and technologies in the transportation sector”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(9): 4586–4610, (2011).
10. [10] Lin, B., Du, Z., “Can urban rail transit curb automobile energy consumption?”, Energy Policy, 105: 120–127, (2017).
11. [11] Umar, M., Ji, X., Kirikkaleli, D., Alola, A.A., “The imperativeness of environmental quality in the United States transportation sector amidst biomass-fossil energy consumption and growth”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 285: 124863, (2021).
12. [12] Bel, G., Holst, M., “Evaluation of the impact of Bus Rapid Transit on air pollution in Mexico City”, Transport Policy, 63: 209–220, (2018).
13. [13] Pamucar, D., Deveci, M., Canıtez, F., Paksoy, T., Lukovac, V., “A Novel Methodology for Prioritizing Zero-Carbon Measures for Sustainable Transport”, Sustainable Production and Consumption, 27: 1093–1112, (2021).
14. [14] Gkiotsalitis, K., Cats, O., “Public transport planning adaption under the COVID-19 pandemic crisis: Literature review of research needs and directions”, Transport Reviews, 41(3): 374–392, (2021).
15. [15] Sahraei, M.A., Kuşkapan, E., Çodur, M.Y., “Public transit usage and air quality index during the COVID-19 lockdown”, Journal of Environmental Management, 286: 112166, (2021).
16. [16] Bandyopadhyay, S., “Public transport during pandemic”, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 22: 1755-1756, (2020).
17. [17] Przybylowski, A., Stelmak, S., Suchanek, M., “Mobility Behaviour in View of the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic—Public Transport Users in Gdansk Case Study”, Sustainability, 13(1): 364, (2021).
18. [18] Dzisi, E.K.J., Dei, O.A., “Adherence to social distancing and wearing of masks within public transportation during the COVID 19 pandemic”, Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 7: 100191, (2020).
19. [19] Fridrisek, P., Janos, V., “COVID-19 and suburban public transport in the conditions of the Czech Republic”, Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 13: 100523, (2022).
20. [20] Das, S., Boruah, A., Banerjee, A., Raoniar, R., Nama, S., Maurya, A.K., “Impact of COVID-19: A radical modal shift from public to private transport mode”, Transport Policy, 109: 1–11, (2021).
21. [21] Beck, M.J., Hensher, D.A., Nelson, J.D., “Public transport trends in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic: An investigation of the influence of bio-security concerns on trip behaviour”, Journal of Transport Geography, 96: 103167, (2021).
22. [22] Marra, A.D., Sun, L., Corman, F., “The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on public transport usage and route choice: Evidences from a long-term tracking study in urban area”, Transport Policy, 116: 258–268, (2022).
23. [23] Bergantino, A.S., Intini, M., Tangari, L., “Influencing factors for potential bike-sharing users: An empirical analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic”, Research in Transportation Economics, 86: 101028, (2021).
24. [24] Orman, A., Düzkaya, H., Ulvi̇, H., Akdemi̇r, F., “Multi-Criteria Evaluation by Means of Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Transportation Master Plans: Scenario Selection in the Transportation Master Plan of Ankara”, Gazi University Journal of Science, 31(2): 381–397, (2018).
25. [25] Mogaji, E., Adekunle, I., Aririguzoh, S., Oginni, A., “Dealing with impact of COVID-19 on transportation in a developing country: Insights and policy recommendations”, Transport Policy, 116: 304–314, (2022).
26. [26] Aydin, N., Kuşakcı, A.O., Deveci, M., “The impacts of COVID-19 on travel behavior and initial perception of public transport measures in Istanbul”, Decision Analytics Journal, 2: 100029, (2022).
27. [27] Yıldızhan, F., Karacasu, M., “Monorail System Feasibility Study for Developing Countries: The Case Study of Eskişehir-Turkey”, Journal of Polytechnic, (In press).
28. [28] Liu, Z., Chen, X., Meng, Q., Kim, I., “Remote park-and-ride network equilibrium model and its applications”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 117: 37–62, (2018).
29. [29] Del Mistro, R.F., Bruun, E., “Appropriate operating environments for Feeder-Trunk-Distributor or Direct road based public transport services in cities of developing countries”, CODATU XVI, Istanbul, 2-16, (2019).
30. [30] Gschwender, A., Jara-Díaz, S., Bravo, C., “Feeder-trunk or direct lines? Economies of density, transfer costs and transit structure in an urban context”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 88: 209–222, (2016).
31. [31] ITDP, The BRT Standard. https://www.itdp.org/2016/06/21/the-brt-standard/, (2016).
32. [32] Vuchic, V. R., Urban Transit Systems and Technology. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, (2007).
33. [33] Geng, Y., Ma, Z., Xue, B., Ren, W., Liu, Z., Fujita, T., “Co-benefit evaluation for urban public transportation sector – a case of Shenyang, China”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 58: 82–91, (2013).
34. [34] Rizelioğlu, M., Arslan, T., “A comparison of LRT with an imaginary BRT system in performance: Bursa example”, Case Studies on Transport Policy, 8(1): 135–142, (2020).
35. [35] Boisjoly, G., Grisé, E., Maguire, M., Veillette, M.-P., Deboosere, R., Berrebi, E., El-Geneidy, A., “Invest in the ride: A 14 year longitudinal analysis of the determinants of public transport ridership in 25 North American cities”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 116: 434–445, (2018).
36. [36] Cipriani, E., Mannini, L., Montemarani, B., Nigro, M., Petrelli, M., “Congestion pricing policies: Design and assessment for the city of Rome, Italy”, Transport Policy, 80: 127–135, (2019).
37. [37] Çodur, M.Y., Coşkun, H., “A sample scheme of cordon-based congestion charge: Erzurum, Cumhuriyet Street”, Pamukkale University Journal of Engineering Sciences, 26(3): 409–418. (2020).
38. [38] Liu, Z., Meng, Q., Wang, S., “Speed-based toll design for cordon-based congestion pricing scheme”, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 31: 83–98, (2013).
39. [39] de Palma, A., Lindsey, R., “Traffic congestion pricing methodologies and technologies”, Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 19(6): 1377–1399, (2011).
40. [40] Liu, H., Szeto, W.Y., Long, J., “Bike network design problem with a path-size logit-based equilibrium constraint: Formulation, global optimization, and matheuristic”, Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 127: 284–307, (2019).
41. [41] ITDP, A Global High Shift Cycling Scenario. https://www.itdp.org/2015/11/12/a-global-high-shift-cycling-scenario/, (2015).
42. [42] Kager, R., Bertolini, L., Te Brömmelstroet, M., “Characterisation of and reflections on the synergy of bicycles and public transport”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 85: 208–219, (2016).
43. [43] Gutiérrez, M., Hurtubia, R., Ortúzar, J.de D., “The role of habit and the built environment in the willingness to commute by bicycle”, Travel Behaviour and Society, 20: 62–73, (2020).
44. [44] Curran, A., “Translink public bike system feasibility study”, Quay Communications Inc, Vancouver, (2008).
45. [45] Caspi, O., Smart, M.J., Noland, R.B., “Spatial associations of dockless shared e-scooter usage”, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 86: 102396, (2020).
46. [46] Yalınız, P., Bilgiç, Ş., “Eskişehir Kent Merkezinde “Park Et ve Bin” Uygulamasının Sürdürülebilir Ulaştırma Bağlamında Değerlendirilmesi”, 7. Ulaştırma Kongresi, Türkiye İnşaat Mühendisleri Odası, İstanbul, 461-470, (2007).
47. [47] Aros-Vera, F., Marianov, V., Mitchell, J.E., “P-Hub approach for the optimal park-and-ride facility location problem”, European Journal of Operational Research, 226(2): 277–285, (2013).
48. [48] Mingardo, G., “Transport and environmental effects of rail-based Park and Ride: Evidence from the Netherlands”, Journal of Transport Geography, 30: 7–16, (2013).
49. [49] Clayton, W., Ben-Elia, E., Parkhurst, G., Ricci, M., “Where to park? A behavioural comparison of bus Park and Ride and city centre car park usage in Bath, UK”, Journal of Transport Geography, 36: 124-133, (2014).
50. [50] Acar, İ.H., “Trafik ve Ulaşım Konularında Kanılar ve Gerçekler”, 7. Ulaştırma Kongresi, Kongre Sempozyum Bildiriler Kitabı, (2007).
51. [51] https://www.estram.com.tr/Cntnt/81. Access date: 01.03.2022
52. [52] Dündar, S., “Park Et Bin Sistemi ve İstanbul’daki Uygulaması”, MSc Thesis, Istanbul Technical University Institute of Science and Technology, Istanbul, (2010).
53. [53] Kocabaş, N., “Metrobüs Sistemlerinin Ülkemizde Uygulanabilirliğinin Araştırılması ve Antalya Örneği”, MSc Thesis, Eskişehir Osmangazi University Institute of Science and Technology, Eskişehir, (2007).
54. [54] Karamaşa, Ç., Demir, E., Memiş, S., Korucuk, S., “Weighting the factors affectıng logıstıcs outsourcıng”, Decision Making: Applications in Management and Engineering, 4(1): 19–32, (2021).