Electrical Energy Demand Prediction: A Comparison Between Genetic Programming and Decision Tree

Abstract

Several recent studies have used various data mining techniques to obtain accurate electrical energy demand forecasts in power supply systems. This paper, for the first time, compares the efficiency of the decision tree (DT) and classic genetic programming (GP) data mining models developed for electrical energy demand forecasting in Nicosia, Northern Cyprus. The models were trained and tested using daily electricity consumptions measured during the period 2011-2016 and were compared in terms of three statistical performance indices including coefficient of determination, mean absolute percentage error and concordance coefficient. The prediction results showed that the proposed models can be effectively applied to forecasts of electrical energy demand. The results also indicated that the GP is slightly superior to DT in terms of the performance indices.

Keywords

• Genetic programing,Decision tree,Electricity demand,Nicosia

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