Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster
Yıl 2023, Cilt: 36 Sayı: 3, 1302 - 1309, 01.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.35378/gujs.1096827

Öz

Proje Numarası

120F307

Kaynakça

  • [1] Brauer, F., “Castillo-Chavez, C. and Feng, Z., Mathematical Models in Epidemiology 1st ed.”. Springer-Verlag New York, (2019).
  • [2] Nistal, R., De la Sen, M., Gabirond, J., Alonso-Quesada, S., Garrido, A.J., Garrido, I., “A Study on COVID-19 Incidence in Europe through Two SEIR Epidemic Models Which Consider Mixed Contagions from Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Individuals”, Applied Sciences, 11: 6266, (2021). DOI: 10.3390/app11146266
  • [3] Arino, J., Protet, S., “A simple model for COVID-19”, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5: 309-315, (2020).
  • [4] Cakir, Z., Savas, H. B., “A mathematical modelling for the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran”, Ortadogu Tıp Dergisi, 12(2): 206-210, (2020).
  • [5] Ivorra, B., Ferrandez, M. R., Vela-Perez, M., Ramos, A. M., “Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China”, Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 88: 105303, (2020).
  • [6] Liu, Z., Magal, P., Seydi, O., Webb, G., “A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period.”, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5: 323-337, (2020).
  • [7] Ndairou, F., Area, I., Nieto, J. J., Torres, D. F. M., “Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission Dynamics with a case study of Wuhan”, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 135: 109846, (2020).
  • [8] Vega, D.I., “Lockdown, one, two, none, or smart. Modeling containing COVID-19 infection. A conceptual model”, Science of the Total Environment, 730: 138917, (2020).
  • [9] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situationreports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=5ae25bc76. Access date: 25.06.2020
  • [10] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/contact-tracing.html. Access date: 10.02.2022.
  • [11] Ahmed, I, Modu, G. U., Yusuf, A., Kumam, P., Yusuf, I., “A mathematical model of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) containing asymptomatic and symptomatic classes”, Results in Physics, (2021). DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103776
  • [12] Riyapan, P., Shuaib, S. E., Intarasit, A., “A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand”, Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, (2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6664483
  • [13] Van den Driessche P., Watmough J., “Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission”, Mathematical Biosciences, 180(1-2): 29–48, (2002).
  • [14] https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Olum-ve-Olum-Nedeni-Istatistikleri-2019-33710. Access date: 15.11.2022.

A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 36 Sayı: 3, 1302 - 1309, 01.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.35378/gujs.1096827

Öz

The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a better understanding of the spread of SARS-COV2. As of December 2019, several mathematical models have been developed to explain how SARS-COV2 spreads within populations, and proposed models have evolved as more is learned about the dynamics of the outbreak. In this study, we propose a new mathematical model that includes demographic characteristics of the population. Social isolation and vaccination are also taken into account in the model. Besides transmission arising from intercourse with undiagnosed infected persons, we also consider transmission by contact with the exposed group. In this study, after the model is established, the basic reproduction number is calculated and local stability analysis of disease-free equilibrium is given. Finally, we give numerical simulations for the proposed model.

Destekleyen Kurum

TÜBİTAK

Proje Numarası

120F307

Teşekkür

This research is supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) within the scope of the 1001-Scientific and Technological Research Project (120F307)

Kaynakça

  • [1] Brauer, F., “Castillo-Chavez, C. and Feng, Z., Mathematical Models in Epidemiology 1st ed.”. Springer-Verlag New York, (2019).
  • [2] Nistal, R., De la Sen, M., Gabirond, J., Alonso-Quesada, S., Garrido, A.J., Garrido, I., “A Study on COVID-19 Incidence in Europe through Two SEIR Epidemic Models Which Consider Mixed Contagions from Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Individuals”, Applied Sciences, 11: 6266, (2021). DOI: 10.3390/app11146266
  • [3] Arino, J., Protet, S., “A simple model for COVID-19”, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5: 309-315, (2020).
  • [4] Cakir, Z., Savas, H. B., “A mathematical modelling for the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran”, Ortadogu Tıp Dergisi, 12(2): 206-210, (2020).
  • [5] Ivorra, B., Ferrandez, M. R., Vela-Perez, M., Ramos, A. M., “Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China”, Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 88: 105303, (2020).
  • [6] Liu, Z., Magal, P., Seydi, O., Webb, G., “A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period.”, Infectious Disease Modelling, 5: 323-337, (2020).
  • [7] Ndairou, F., Area, I., Nieto, J. J., Torres, D. F. M., “Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission Dynamics with a case study of Wuhan”, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 135: 109846, (2020).
  • [8] Vega, D.I., “Lockdown, one, two, none, or smart. Modeling containing COVID-19 infection. A conceptual model”, Science of the Total Environment, 730: 138917, (2020).
  • [9] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situationreports/20200402-sitrep-73-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=5ae25bc76. Access date: 25.06.2020
  • [10] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/contact-tracing.html. Access date: 10.02.2022.
  • [11] Ahmed, I, Modu, G. U., Yusuf, A., Kumam, P., Yusuf, I., “A mathematical model of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) containing asymptomatic and symptomatic classes”, Results in Physics, (2021). DOI: 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103776
  • [12] Riyapan, P., Shuaib, S. E., Intarasit, A., “A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand”, Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, (2021). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6664483
  • [13] Van den Driessche P., Watmough J., “Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission”, Mathematical Biosciences, 180(1-2): 29–48, (2002).
  • [14] https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Olum-ve-Olum-Nedeni-Istatistikleri-2019-33710. Access date: 15.11.2022.
Toplam 14 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Mühendislik
Bölüm Mathematics
Yazarlar

Elif Demirci 0000-0002-7304-8406

Proje Numarası 120F307
Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Eylül 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 36 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Demirci, E. (2023). A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19. Gazi University Journal of Science, 36(3), 1302-1309. https://doi.org/10.35378/gujs.1096827
AMA Demirci E. A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19. Gazi University Journal of Science. Eylül 2023;36(3):1302-1309. doi:10.35378/gujs.1096827
Chicago Demirci, Elif. “A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19”. Gazi University Journal of Science 36, sy. 3 (Eylül 2023): 1302-9. https://doi.org/10.35378/gujs.1096827.
EndNote Demirci E (01 Eylül 2023) A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19. Gazi University Journal of Science 36 3 1302–1309.
IEEE E. Demirci, “A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19”, Gazi University Journal of Science, c. 36, sy. 3, ss. 1302–1309, 2023, doi: 10.35378/gujs.1096827.
ISNAD Demirci, Elif. “A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19”. Gazi University Journal of Science 36/3 (Eylül 2023), 1302-1309. https://doi.org/10.35378/gujs.1096827.
JAMA Demirci E. A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19. Gazi University Journal of Science. 2023;36:1302–1309.
MLA Demirci, Elif. “A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19”. Gazi University Journal of Science, c. 36, sy. 3, 2023, ss. 1302-9, doi:10.35378/gujs.1096827.
Vancouver Demirci E. A Novel Mathematical Model of the Dynamics of COVID-19. Gazi University Journal of Science. 2023;36(3):1302-9.