Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, teknolojik inovasyon ve sanayi katma değeri: AB ülkelerinde ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki dinamik etkileşimler (1995-2021)

Öz

Sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme hedefi, günümüz küresel ekonomi-politik gündeminde giderek daha fazla önem kazanmakta olup; enerji arz güvenliği, çevresel sürdürülebilirlik ve üretkenliğe dayalı büyüme stratejileri bu çerçevede öncelikli politika alanları hâline gelmiştir. Bu bağlamda, ekonomik büyümenin temel belirleyicileri arasında kabul edilen yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, teknolojik inovasyon ve sanayi katma değeri arasındaki dinamik ilişkilerin bütüncül bir yaklaşımla analiz edilmesi gerekliliği doğmuştur. Literatürde bu değişkenlerden her birinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri farklı çalışmalarla ayrı ayrı ele alınmış olsa da söz konusu üç değişkenin aynı model çerçevesinde birlikte incelendiği çalışma sayısı oldukça sınırlıdır. Çalışmanın temel amacı, 22 Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkesinde 1995–2021 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılarak, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi, teknolojik inovasyon ve sanayi katma değerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak analiz etmektir. Bu yönüyle çalışma, literatürdeki eksikliği gidermeye katkı yapmayı ve politika yapıcılar için bütüncül öneriler sunmayı hedeflemektedir. Çalışmada öncelikle panel veri yapısına uygun tanımlayıcı analizler yapılmış, ardından modelde yatay kesit bağımlılığı, otokorelasyon ve değişen varyans sorunları tespit edildiğinden, bu tür yapısal sorunlara karşı etkili bir tahmin aracı olan Driscoll-Kraay yönteminden yararlanılmıştır. Uzun dönemli ve karşılaştırmalı analiz imkânı sunan bu yöntem sayesinde, zamana bağlı yapısal değişimlerin ve politika etkilerinin dikkate alındığı sağlam ekonometrik sonuçlara ulaşılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, çalışmada ele alınan üç temel değişkenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin farklı yönlerde seyrettiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Buna göre, teknolojik inovasyonda meydana gelen %1’lik bir artışın ekonomik büyümeyi yaklaşık %0.173 oranında azalttığı gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum, inovasyonun kısa vadede ekonomik büyümeyi desteklemek yerine dönüşüm süreçleri ve yeniden yapılanma maliyetleri nedeniyle sınırlayıcı bir etki yaratabileceğini düşündürmektedir. Diğer yandan, yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminde gerçekleşen %1’lik bir artışın ekonomik büyümeyi %0.176 oranında artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu bulgu, çevre dostu enerji kaynaklarının kullanımının yalnızca çevresel sürdürülebilirliğe değil, aynı zamanda ekonomik performansa da olumlu katkı sağladığını göstermektedir. Sanayi katma değerinde gözlenen %1’lik bir artışın ise ekonomik büyümeyi %0.392 oranında azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla, sanayi faaliyetlerinin artışının belirli koşullar altında çevresel ve yapısal maliyetler doğurarak büyümeyi olumsuz etkileyebileceğine işaret etmektedir. Bu sonuçlar, yenilenebilir enerji kullanımının ekonomik büyüme açısından teşvik edilmesi gerektiğine işaret ederken, teknolojik inovasyonun ve sanayi üretiminin büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin bağlamsal olarak daha dikkatli değerlendirilmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir. Böylece çalışma, sürdürülebilir kalkınma hedeflerine ulaşmada politika yapıcılara yön gösterici nitelikte özgün ve ampirik temellere dayanan katkılar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi
• teknolojik inovasyon
• sanayi katma değeri
• ekonomik büyüme
• Driscoll-Kraay yöntemi

Renewable energy consumption, technological innovation and industrial value added: dynamic interactions on economic growth in EU countries (1995-2021)

Abstract

The target of sustainable economic growth is gaining more and more importance in today's global economic-political agenda; energy supply security, environmental sustainability and productivity-based growth strategies have become priority policy areas within this framework. In this context, it has become necessary to analyze the dynamic relationships between renewable energy consumption, technological innovation and industrial value added which are considered among the main determinants of economic growth, with a holistic approach. Although the effects of each of these variables on economic growth have been addressed separately in different studies in the literature, the number of studies examining these three variables together within the same model framework is quite limited. The main objective of the study is to empirically analyze the effects of renewable energy consumption, technological innovation and industrial value added on economic growth using annual data for the period 1995–2021 in 22 European Union (EU) countries. In this respect, the study aims to contribute to filling the gap in the literature and to offer holistic suggestions for policy makers. In the study, firstly, descriptive analyses suitable for panel data structure were conducted, since cross-section dependency, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity problems were detected in the model, Driscoll-Kraay method, which is an effective estimation tool against such structural problems, was used. Thanks to this method, which provides long-term and comparative analysis, solid econometric results were obtained in which structural changes and policy effects depending on time were considered. The empirical findings obtained reveal that the effects of the three basic variables considered in the study on economic growth proceed in different directions. Accordingly, it was observed that a 1% increase in technological innovation reduced economic growth by approximately 0.173%. This situation suggests that innovation may have a restrictive effect due to transformation processes and restructuring costs instead of supporting economic growth in the short term. On the other hand, it was concluded that a 1% increase in renewable energy consumption increased economic growth by 0.176%. This finding shows that the use of environmentally friendly energy sources contributes positively not only to environmental sustainability but also to economic performance. It has been determined that a 1% increase in industrial value added reduces economic growth by 0.392%. Therefore, it indicates that the increase in industrial activities may negatively affect growth by creating environmental and structural costs under certain conditions. While these results indicate that the use of renewable energy should be encouraged in terms of economic growth, they also indicate that the effects of technological innovation and industrial production on growth should be evaluated more carefully in a contextual manner. Thus, the study provides original and empirically based contributions that guide policy makers in achieving sustainable development goals.

Keywords

• Renewable energy consumption
• technological innovation
• industrial value added
• economic growth
• Driscoll-Kraay method

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