The Effect of Information and Communication Technologies on Unemployment: The Case of Selected OECD Countries

Year 2024, , 127 - 147, 14.01.2025

Ahmet Ünlü , Seçkin Kabak

https://doi.org/10.33818/ier.1493743

Abstract

With the rapid pace of technological developments in the 1970s, Information Communication Technologies (ICT) has revealed its existence. In the modern world, ICT has direct or indirect effects on social and economic life. The use of ICT has an impact on globalisation as well as on macroeconomic dynamics such as growth, development and unemployment. These effects are the subject of research in various countries and dynamics. The aim of this study is to apply the bootstrap causality analysis presented by Emirmahmutoglu & Kose (2011) from panel data techniques covering the years 2005-2021 of countries selected according to certain criteria within the OECD. In the selection criterion, the countries whose internet access rate variable representing ICT development is the most similar to Türkiye are taken into consideration. As a result, although the countries have similar characteristics due to the selection criterion, the existence of country-specific differences in the direction of the causality relationship between the unemployment and the internet access rate representing ICT is investigated. In Brazil, which has similar characteristics with Türkiye, a causality relationship was found from ICT to unemployment rate.

Keywords

Information and Communication Technologies, Unemployment, OECS, Causality, Time Series.

References

• Acemoğlu, D., and P. Restrepo (2019). “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 3-30.
• Alper, F. O. (2017). "Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin Ekonomik Büyüme ve Işsizlik Üzerine Etkisi: Seçilmiş AB Ülkeleri ve Türkiye Örneği." Yasama Dergisi, (36), 45–65. Altınok, H. and A. Akça (2021). "BRICS+T Ülkelerinde Sanayi Üretim Endeksi ve Kredi Temerrüt Takası Arasındaki Ilişki: Kónya Bootstrap Nedensellik Yaklaşımı." Maliye Dergisi, 180, 252-269. Artan, S., P. Hayaloğlu and N. Baltacı. (2014). "Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerindeki Gelişmelerin Iktisadi Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği." Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 28(1), 199–214.
• Autor, D. H., F. Levy and R. J. Murnane (2003). “The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279-1333.
• Bahrini, R., and A. A. Qaffas (2019). “Impact of Information and Communication Technology on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries”. Economies, 7(1), 21.
• Breusch, T. S., and A. R. Pagan (1980). “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Çebişli, N. (2021). "Bilgi İletişim Teknolojilerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi." Uşak Üniversitesi Uygulamalı Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(1), 46–56. Çelik, H. and S. Paksoy (2021). “Kamu Harcamaları Dış Ticaret Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Mint Ülkeleri Örneği (1987-2020)”. International Journal of Disciplines Economics & Administrative Sciences Studies, 7 (33), 740-74.
• Chang, T., R. Gupta, R. Inglesi-Lotz, B. Simo-Kengne, D. Smithers and A. Trembling (2015). Renewable Energy and Growth: Evidence from Heterogeneous Panel of G7 Countries using Granger Causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 1405-1412.
• Cheng, C. Y., M. S. Chien and C. C. Lee (2021). "ICT Diffusion, Financial Development and Economic Growth: an International Cross-Country Analysis." Economic Modelling, 94, 662–671. Cohen, S. S., J. Zysman and B. J. DeLong (2000). "Tools for Thought: What is New and Important about the E-conomy?". Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy. Dağlı, I., and L. Kösekahyaoğlu (2021). "Bilim ve Teknoloji Politikaları Bağlamında Teknoloji-Işsizlik Ilişkisi: Ampirik Bir Inceleme." Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 16(63), 1237-1255.
• Diaz, M. S. and F. J. Q. Tomas (2002). "Technological Innovation and Employment: Data from a Decade in Spain." International Journal of Production Economics, 75, 245–256. Ece, N., and G. Çetin (2021). “Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri Kullanımı, İstihdam ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”. InTraders International Trade Academic Journal, 4(2), 149-162.
• Emirmahmutoğlu, F. and N. Köse (2011). "Testing for Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Mixed Panels." Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876. Entorf, H., M. Gollac and F. Kramarz (1999). "New Technologies, Wages, and Worker Selection." Journal of Labor Economics, 17(3), 464–491. Erdinç, Z., G. Günsoy, B. Günsoy and M. T. Aktaş (2018). İktisadi Büyüme. (No: 2484). Eskişehir. T.C. Anadolu University Open Education Faculty Publication.
• Feldmann, H. (2013). "Technological Unemployment in Industrial Countries." Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 23, 1099–1126. Garcia-Murillo, M., I. MacInnes and J. M. Bauer (2018). "Techno-Unemployment: a Framework for Assessing the Effects of Information and Communication Technologies on Work." Telematics and Informatics, 35(7), 1863–1876.
• Giannopoulos, G. A. (2004). "The Application of Information and Communication Technologies in Transport." European Journal of Operational Research, 152(2), 302-320. Harman, B. and Z. Abdi̇oğlu (2023). "Bilgi İletişim Teknolojileri ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Beşli Kırılgan Ekonomiler Üzerine bir Uygulama." Karadeniz Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15(28), 264–278. Harrison, R., J. Jaumandreu, J. Mairesse, B. Peters, M. Arellano, S. Bond and H. Simpson (2008). "Does Innovation Stimulate Employment? A Firm-Level Analysis Using Comparable Micro-Data from four European Countries." NBER Working Paper, No. 14216. National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, MA.
• Kar, M., S. Nazlıoğlu and H. Ağır (2011). "Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus in the MENA Countries: Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis." Economic Modelling, 28(1-2): 685-693. Karabulut, K. and A. Shahinpour (2017). "Bilişim ve Iletişim Teknolojilerinin (BİT’in) Işsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: İran Ekonomisi Üzerine bir Uygulama." Kafkas University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty, 8(16), 243–257.
• Karabulut, K., D. Özdemir and A. Shahinpour (2019). "Seçilmiş Ülkelerde Bilişim ve Iletişim Teknolojilerinin (BİT) Işsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi." Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 33(4), 1187–1199. Koçdemir, U. S., and F. Gölpek (2021). Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin Mercosur Ülkelerinde Sınanması: Panel Veri Analizi." Türk Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 25-37, Koellinger, P. (2006). “Impact of ICT on Corporate Performance, Productivity and Employment Dynamics”. Special Report, European Commission, No. 01/2006, 1-33.
• Matteucci, N. and A. Sterlacchini (2003). "ICT and Employment Growth in Italian Industries." (No. 193). Università Politecnica Delle Marche. www.researchgate.net/ publication/4982620_ ICT_and_ Employment_ Growth_ in_Italian_ Industries.
• Meçik, O. (2015). "OECD Ülkelerinde Bilgi ve Iletişim Teknolojilerinin İşgücü Verimliliği Üzerindeki Etkisi." Journal of Management and Economics Research, 13(1), 74–84. Mike, F., and M. Mahjoub Laleh (2016). "Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin İstihdam Üzerine Etkisi: Seçili Ülkeler Üzerine Bir Uygulama." Journal of Graduate School of Social Sciences, 20(2), 601-614. O’Mahony, M., C. Robinson and M. Vecchi (2008). "The Impact of ICT on the Demand for Skilled Labour: a Cross-Country Comparison." Labour Economics, 15(6), 1435–1450. Oulton, N. and S. Srinivasan (2005). "Productivity Growth and the Role of ICT in the United Kingdom : An Industry View, 1970-2000." (Centre for Economic Performance Discussion Paper No. 681). London School of Economics and Political Science. www.researchgate.net/publication/ 4928773_Productivity_Growth_and_the_Role_of_ ICT _in_the_ United_ Kingdom_ An_Industry_ View_1970-2000.
• Özer, M. and and M. Kocaman (2019). "A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis of Relationships Between Political Instability and Macroeconomic Variables." Uluslararası Ekonomi, İşletme ve Politika (UEIP) Dergisi, 3(2), 239-252. Pesaran M.H. (2004). "General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels." Cambridge Working Papers in Economics (No. 0435). The University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics. Pesaran, M.H. and N. Yamagata (2008). "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels." Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50–93.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2014). "Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels." Econometric Reviews, 34, 1089–1117.
• Pohjola, M. (2002). "The New Economy: Facts, Impacts and Policies." Information Economics and Policy, 14(2), 133–144.
• Puente-Ajovín, M., and M. Sanso-Navarro (2015). Granger Causality between Debt and Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 35, 66-77.
• Say, J. B. (1971). A Treatise on Political Economy. New York: Augustus M. Kelley. Swamy, P. A. (1970). “Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model”. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 311-323.
• Toda, H. Y., and T. Yamamoto (1995). “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225–250.
• Türedi, S. (2013). "Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçi Panel Veri Analizi." Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Elektronik Dergisi, (7), 298–322. Ünlü, F. (2022). “Türkiye’de Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin İşgücü Verimliliği ve İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkileri: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”. İstanbul İktisat Dergisi, 72(2), 725-751.
• Van Ark, B., R. Inklaar and R. H. McGuckin (2003). “The Contribution of ICT-Producing and ICT-Using Industries to Productivity Growth: A Comparison of Canada, Europe and the United States”. International Productivity Monitor, 6, 56–63.