THE EFFECT OF POLITICAL FACTORS ON FINANCIAL DISCIPLINE: AN APPLIED ANALYSIS OF LOWEST ADVANCED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRY

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 67 Sayı: 1, 1 - 23, 26.07.2017

Ekrem Erdem , M. Fatih İlgün

https://doi.org/10.26560/iuifm.331641

Öz

The deterioration in fiscal discipline has become more permanent in the majority of
developed and developing countries, as a result of increasing budget deficits in the
direction of economic development and welfare state purposes after the Second World
War. It is understood that the differentiation observed in fiscal balance in countries with
similar development levels is not only explained by fiscal targets and macroeconomic
shocks, but also political factors are influential. Hence, the aim of the study is to examine
the impact of political factors on the fiscal balance in underdeveloped and developing
countries. In accordance with this purpose, the effect of 14 variables representing political
factors on public debt stock is analyzed by panel GMM method for a sample of 49
underdeveloped and developing countries over the period of 1985-2012. The results show
that 11 of the political factors -which can be grouped into the regime, political stability,
structure of parliament and government- have a significant effect on the public debt stock. Political Factors; Fiscal Discipline; Public Debt Stock; Panel GMM

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Political Factors, Fiscal Discipline, Public Debt Stock, Panel GMM

MALİ DİSİPLİN ÜZERİNDE POLİTİK FAKTÖRLERİN ETKİSİ: AZ GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELERE YÖNELİK UYGULAMALI BİR ANALİZ

Öz

İkinci dünya savaşı sonrası ekonomik kalkınma ve refah devleti amaçları
doğrultusunda artan bütçe açıkları sonucunda, mali disiplindeki bozulma hem gelişmiş
hem gelişmekte olan ülkelerin çoğunda kalıcı hale gelmiştir. Benzer gelişmişlik düzeyine
sahip ülkelerde kamu mali dengesinde gözlemlenen farklılaşma sadece mali hedefler ve
makroekonomik şoklarla açıklanamamakta, bunlara ilave olarak, politik faktörlerin de
etkili olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Buradan hareketle, çalışmanın amacı, az gelişmiş ve
gelişmekte olan ülkelerde politik faktörlerin kamu mali dengesi üzerindeki etkisinin
incelenmesidir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 1985-2012 yılları arasında 49 az gelişmiş ve
gelişmekte olan ülke için politik faktörleri temsil eden 14 değişkenin kamu borç stoku
üzerindeki etkisi panel GMM yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlar yönetim biçimi,
politik istikrar ile meclis ve hükümet yapısı şeklinde gruplandırılabilecek politik
faktörlerinden 11 tanesinin kamu borç stoku üzerinde anlamlı etkisinin olduğunu
göstermektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Politik Fak, Mali Disiplin, Kamu Borç Stoku, Panel GMM

Kaynakça

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