The Impact of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict on the Aviation Sector: February-May 2022

Abstract

Aviation; it is a global sector that affects many areas such as education, trade, tourism, and is also affected by many situations such as epidemics, economic fluctuations, political disagreements and military intervention. For this reason, the disagreement between Ukraine and Russia also quietly affects the aviation industry. Although disagreements seem to continue between the two countries, issues such as the closure of airspaces, changes in flight costs as a result of changing routes, the situation of aircraft and component manufacturers, tourism and aviation security concern aviation globally. In this study, which was conducted to reveal the impact of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the aviation sector, case study research, one of the qualitative research methods, was used. In a four-month period, sources such as newspaper news, internet news sites, websites of authorities were scanned, and it was tried to reveal how the conflict was reflected in the aviation industry. This method was chosen considering that it is suitable for this study in terms of revealing what happened in the past, how people were affected, how the processes took place, and what the results were. Between February 24 and March 2, when the disagreements between the two countries began, all flights to Ukraine were stopped, while air traffic in neighbouring countries decreased. International passenger traffic of Russian airlines decreased by at least four times in March 2022 compared to March 2021, and by sixteen times compared to March 2019. The Ukraine-Russia conflict also negatively affected the flight times of passenger flights between East and West. As a result of the study, the great impact of the four-month period, which is thought to be short, on the aviation sector has been tried to be revealed.

Keywords

• Ukraine-Russia Crisis
• Aviation Industry
• Number of Flights
• Airspace Closure

References

1. AerCap, Rusya’daki uçaklara 3,5 milyar dolar tazminat istedi. (2022, April 1). Haberaero. Retrieved from https://haber.aero/sivil-havacilik/aercap-rusyadaki-ucaklari-35-milyar-dolar-tazminat-istedi/
2. Cathay Pacific plans world’s longest passenger flight, avoiding Russia. (2022, March 30). The Gurdian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com /business/2022/mar/30/cathay-pacific-plans- worlds-longest-passenger-flight-avoiding-russia
3. Chmiliar, I. (2010). Multiple-case designs. In A. J. Mills, G. Eurepas & E. Wiebe (Eds.), Encyclopedia of case study research (pp 582-583). USA: SAGE Publications.
4. COVID ve Savaş Sonrası En Uzun Uçuş. (2022, April 4). Haberaero. Retrieved from https://haber.aero/yazarlar/guntay-simsek/covid-ve-savas-sonrasi-en-uzun-ucus/
5. Davey, Lynn. (2009). The application of case study evaluations. (Çev: Tuba Gökçek). Elementary Educatıon Online, 8(2), 1-3
6. Dünyanın en büyük kargo uçağı: Rusya'nın vurduğu Antonov An-225'in enkazı görüntülendi. (2022, April 3). NTV. Retrieved from https://www.ntv.com.tr /amp/galeri/ukrayna-savasi/dunyanin-en- buyuk-kargo-ucagi-rusyanin-vurdugu-antonov-an-225in-enkazi-goruntulendi,iNK3SbX21US338znguKVmg
7. Eurocontrol. (2022, March 5) https://www.eurocontrol.int/
8. Fraport’tan Petersburg Havalimanı çıkmazı! (2022, April 4). Haberaero. Retrieved from https://haber.aero/sivil-havacilik/rusyanin-uluslararasi-hava-trafigi-2019a-gore-16-kat-azaldi/

9. Head, J. (2022, March 24). Ukrayna'daki işgal sebebiyle binlerce Rus ve Ukraynalı turist Tayland'da mahsur kaldı. BCC, Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/ turkce/haberler-dunya-60852216
10. IATA predicts negative impact of Ukraine conflict on air cargo. (2022, March 10). Airport Technology. Retieved from https://www.airport-technology.com / news/iata-air-cargo
11. Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Airlines Industry. (2022, March 15). Globaldata. Retrieved from https://www.globaldata.com/data-insights/airlines-transportation-infrastructure-and- logistics/impact-of-russia-ukraine-conflict-on-the-airlines-industry/
12. International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). (2001). Annex 11- Air Traffic Services (13rded). Canada: International Civil Aviation Organization.
13. International Civil Aviation Organization. (2013, March 22). Worldwide Air Transport Conference (ATCONF). Retrieved from https://www.icao.int/Meetings/atconf6/Documents/WorkingPapers/ATConf.6.WP.080.1.en.pdf
14. Karadima, S. (2022, March 22). What impact will the Russia-Ukraine conflict have on the aviation sector? Investmentmonitor. Retrieved from https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ ukraine- crisis/russia-ukraine-conflict-aviation-sector-impact#:~:text=Since/20the/ 20invasion /20of/20Ukraine,from/20flying/20through/20its/20skies
15. Karadima, S. (2022, March 10). What impact will the Russia-Ukraine conflict have on the tourism industry? Investmentmonitor, https://www. investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/russia- ukraine-conflict-impact-tourism-industry
16. Korn, J. Muntean, P. Wallace, G. (2022, February 25) How the Russian invasion of Ukraine is impacting global aviation. CNN, Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/25/tech/ukraine-russia- aviation-impact/index.html
17. Kurtaran, G. (2022, February 14). Fitch: Avrupalı hava yollarının toparlanması Rusya-Ukrayna gerilimiyle bozuluyor. Anadolu Ajansı. Retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/ekonomi/fitch-avrupali- hava yollarinin-toparlanmasi-rusya-ukrayna-gerilimiyle-bozuluyor/2534874, Access Date: 15.03.2022
18. OECD. 2022. OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2022: Economic and Social Impacts and Policy Implications of the War in Ukraine. Paris: OECD Publishing.
19. Petchenik, I. (2022, March 10). Russian roundabout: how flights are avoiding Russian airspace. Flightradar24. Retrieved from https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/ russian-roundabout-how-flights- are-avoiding-russian -airspace/?utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_ medium = email&utm_campaign=website
20. Российские авиакомпании сократили международный трафик в 16 раз в сравнении с докризисным. (2022, March 15). Atorus. Retrieved from https://www.atorus.ru/news/presscentre/new/59139.html
21. Rus işgali Eurocontrol verilerine yansıdı: Trafik durdu. (2022, Marc 3). Haber.Aero, Retrieved from https://haber.aero/sivil-havacilik/rus-isgali eurocontrol -verilerine-yansidi-trafik-durdu/
22. Rus diplomatlar yaptırımlardan dolayı 15 bin km uçtu. (2022, April 22). Haberaero. Retrieved from https://haber.aero/sivil-havacilik/rus-diplomatlar-yaptirimlardan-dolayi-15-bin-km-uctu/
23. Rusya, 52 ülkeyle uçuşları tekrar başlatıyor. (2022, April 4). Haberaero. Retrieved from https://haber.aero/sivil-havacilik/rusya-52-ulkeyle-ucuslari-tekrar-baslatiyor/
24. Rusya’nın uluslararası hava trafiği 2019’a göre 16 kat azaldı. (2022, March 16). Haberaero. Retrieved from https://haber.aero/sivil-havacilik/rusyanin uluslararasi-hava-trafigi-2019a-gore-16-kat-azaldi
25. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı uçuş rotalarını değiştirdi. (2022, March 5). Haberturk. Retrieved from https://www.haberturk.com/rusya-ukrayna-savasi-ucus-rotalarini-degistirdi-3365702
26. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı, havacılık sektörünü de etkiledi: Uçuş süreleri uzadı. (2022, March 4). Sözcü. Retrieved from https://www.sozcu.com.tr/2022/dunya/rusya-ukrayna-savasi-havacilik-sektorunu- de-etkiledi-ucus-sureleri-uzadi-6988406/?utm_source=dahafazla_haber&utm_medium=free&utm_campaign=dahafazlahaber
27. Rusya-Ukrayna savaşı havacılık sektörünü etkiledi: Dünyanın en uzun ticari uçuşu geliyor. (2022, March 31). NTV. Retrieved from https://www.ntv.com.tr/amp/galeri/dunya/rusya-ukrayna- savasi- havacilik-sektorunu-etkiledi-dunyanin-en-uzun-ticari-ucusu-geliyor,DwF6XOcCiE6_z0f6TlhOtw
28. Rusya hava sahasını sivil uçuşlara kapattı. (2022, February 24). TRT. Retrieved from https://www.trthaber.com/haber/dunya/rusya-hava-sahasini-sivil-ucuslara-kapatti-657832.html
29. The International Air Transport Association (IATA)The impact of the war in Ukraine on the aviation industry. (2022, March 25). Retrieved from https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/ economic-reports/the-impact-of-the-conflict-between - russia-and-ukraine-on-aviation/
30. The International Air Transport Association (IATA). The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on aviation. (2022, March 7). Retrieved from https://www.iata.org/en/iatarepository/publications/economic-reports/the-impact-of-the-conflict-between-russia-and-ukraine-on-aviation/
31. Tüm yabancı kiralık uçaklar Rusya’da kalacak (2022, April 1). Haberaero. Retrieved from https://haber.aero/sivil-havacilik/tum-yabanci-kiralik -ucaklar-rusyada-kalacak/
32. Uçuşa yasak bölge ne demek, Batı niçin Rusya'nın işgal ettiği Ukrayna'da bu adımı atmaktan kaçınıyor? (2022, March 2) BBC, Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-60586137
33. Ukrayna - Rusya savaşının bilançosu: Yaptırımlar sonrası dünya hava trafiği böyle değişecek! (2022, March 1). Hürriyet. Retrieved from https://www.hurriyet .com.tr/dunya/ukrayna-rusya-savasinin- bilancosu-yaptirimlar-sonrasi-dunya-hava-trafigi-boyle-degisecek-42013352
34. Ukraine closes its airspace to commercial flights as the country is declared a 'conflict zone'. (2022, February 24). Euronews. Retrieved from https://www.euronews.com/travel/2022/02/24/ukraine- closes-its-airspace-to-civilian-flights-as-the-country-is-declared-a-conflict-zone
35. Yeditepe (2022) Rusya - Ukrayna Savaşı Turizm Sektöründeki Beklentileri Tekrar Değiştirdi. Retrieved from https://yeditepe.edu.tr/tr/rusya-ukrayna-savasi-turizm-sektorundeki-beklentileri-tekrar-degistirdi.