Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach

Yasemin Deniz Okur; Filiz Kardiyen

doi:10.30521/jes.1969238

Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach

Abstract

This study provides a province-level assessment of per capita electricity consumption across all 81 provinces of Türkiye for 2015–2023. It employs two-way fixed-effects panel estimation alongside Random Forest modeling to examine regional electricity demand, assess the relative importance of economic, demographic, and climate-related factors, explore potential non-linearities, and evaluate machine-learning evidence in relation to panel-based findings. The results indicate that the industrial share of GDP and cooling degree days (CDD) are positively associated with electricity consumption. By contrast, the enterprise rate is negatively associated with consumption, reflecting differences in provincial economic structure rather than energy-intensive production. Urbanization, renewable energy capacity, and natural gas consumption do not appear to have statistically significant effects within the model. The Random Forest results also support these findings. Prediction error decreases by approximately 22% relative to a baseline model that includes only province and year effects, and variable importance measures highlight the prominent role of the industrial share of GDP. Overall, the findings suggest that provincial electricity demand in Türkiye is more closely related to economic structure and cooling needs than to supply-side factors, with implications for more accurate regional electricity demand forecasting.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Energy

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yasemin Deniz Okur ^*
0009-0006-0422-0029
Türkiye

Filiz Kardiyen
0000-0002-8730-2751
Türkiye

Early Pub Date

June 24, 2026

Publication Date

-

Submission Date

June 11, 2026

Acceptance Date

June 23, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Number: Advanced Online Publication

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30521/jes.1969238

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA92AM97WP

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Okur, Y. D., & Kardiyen, F. (2026). Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach. Journal of Energy Systems, Advanced Online Publication, 131-143. https://doi.org/10.30521/jes.1969238

AMA

1.Okur YD, Kardiyen F. Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach. Journal of Energy Systems. 2026;(Advanced Online Publication):131-143. doi:10.30521/jes.1969238

Chicago

Okur, Yasemin Deniz, and Filiz Kardiyen. 2026. “Modeling and Predicting Provincial Per Capita Electricity Consumption in Türkiye: A Panel Data and Machine Learning Approach”. Journal of Energy Systems, no. Advanced Online Publication: 131-43. https://doi.org/10.30521/jes.1969238.

EndNote

Okur YD, Kardiyen F (June 1, 2026) Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach. Journal of Energy Systems Advanced Online Publication 131–143.

IEEE

[1]Y. D. Okur and F. Kardiyen, “Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach”, Journal of Energy Systems, no. Advanced Online Publication, pp. 131–143, June 2026, doi: 10.30521/jes.1969238.

ISNAD

Okur, Yasemin Deniz - Kardiyen, Filiz. “Modeling and Predicting Provincial Per Capita Electricity Consumption in Türkiye: A Panel Data and Machine Learning Approach”. Journal of Energy Systems. Advanced Online Publication (June 1, 2026): 131-143. https://doi.org/10.30521/jes.1969238.

JAMA

1.Okur YD, Kardiyen F. Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach. Journal of Energy Systems. 2026;:131–143.

MLA

Okur, Yasemin Deniz, and Filiz Kardiyen. “Modeling and Predicting Provincial Per Capita Electricity Consumption in Türkiye: A Panel Data and Machine Learning Approach”. Journal of Energy Systems, no. Advanced Online Publication, June 2026, pp. 131-43, doi:10.30521/jes.1969238.

Vancouver

1.Yasemin Deniz Okur, Filiz Kardiyen. Modeling and predicting provincial per capita electricity consumption in Türkiye: A panel data and machine learning approach. Journal of Energy Systems. 2026 Jun. 1;(Advanced Online Publication):131-43. doi:10.30521/jes.1969238