Determination of Temperature Trends in The Eastern Anatolia Region of Turkey Using Innovative Trend Analysis and Mann-Kendall

Abstract

While global warming causes the world's atmosphere to gradually warm up, it also significantly affects water resources. Temperature is one of the most important parameters of climate change. Investigation of the trend of this parameter is very important for future studies. In this research, an analysis of the temperatures of 14 provinces in the Eastern Anatolia Region of eastern Turkey was conducted. Mann-Kendall test, Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) and statistical analysis based on ITA were used in the study. The findings of the analyzes performed showed a positive trend at 12 points. In this region, a decreasing trend was detected only in Erzurum province. In addition, it is among the findings that there is no trend in Bitlis 95% confidence interval. It was seen that the three methods used in the study supported each other at the 95% confidence interval, except for only one analysis.

Keywords

• Mann-Kendall
• Innovative trend analysis
• Temperature
• Turkey
• Eastern Anatolia Region

Türkiye'nin Doğu Anadolu Bölgesindeki Sıcaklık Eğilimlerinin Yenilikçi Trend Analizi ve Mann-Kendall ile Belirlenmesi

Abstract

Küresel ısınma dünya atmosferinin kademeli olarak ısınmasına neden olurken, su kaynaklarını da önemli oranda etkilemektedir. İklim değişiminin en önemli parametrelerinin başında da sıcaklık gelmektedir. Bu parametrenin trendinin araştırılması gelecekte yapılacak çalışmalar açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu araştırmada, Türkiye'nin doğusunda Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nde bulunan 14 ile ait sıcaklıklara ilişkin analiz yapılmıştır. Çalışmada, Mann-Kendall testi, Yenilikçi Trend Analizi (ITA) ve ITA'yı baz alan istatistiksel analiz kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizlerin bulguları, 12 noktada pozitif bir trend görülmüştür. Bu bölgede sadece Erzurum ilinde bir düşüş eğilimi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca %95 güven aralığında Bitlis'de herhangi bir trend oluşmadığı da bulgular arasındadır. Çalışmada kullanılan üç yöntemin, sadece bir analiz dışında, %95 güven aralığında birbirini destekledikleri görülmüştür.

Keywords

• Mann-Kendall
• Yenilikçi trend analizi
• Sıcaklık
• Türkiye
• Doğu Anadolu Bölgesi

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