The nexus between tourism and international service trade in the coronavirus pandemic: Evidence from Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 55 - 65, 30.07.2022

Ayberk Şeker

https://doi.org/10.31822/jomat.2022-7-1-55

Cited By: 2

Öz

Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has affected all economic processes as well as the tourism industry and service exports. COVID-19 pandemic affects negatively not only in the production and manufacturing industry, but also has caused important problems in the service and tourism sector. The paper aims to determine the effects of tourism revenues, international tourist arrivals and COVID-19 pandemic on service exports and the tourism industry. In line with the results, there is a long-term relationship among tourism revenues, international tourist arrivals, exchange rates, and service exports. According to FMOLS and DOLS results, an increase in the tourism revenues, international tourist arrivals and exchange rates ensure raising service exports of Turkey. However, it is determined that COVID-19 pandemic lead to decreasing service exports of Turkey. In addition, Granger causality analysis revealed that there is a unidirectional causality relationship from exchange rates to international tourist arrivals in Turkey. On the other hand, it is determined that there are bidirectional causality relationships between tourism revenues and service exports, international tourist arrivals and service exports, international tourist arrivals and tourism revenues. Results of the analysis indicate that service exports of Turkey follows a rising trend and it can be reduced the effects of COVID-19 pandemic when development of tourism infrastructure and quality raises.

---

Anahtar Kelimeler

Service Exports, Tourism Industry, COVID-19, Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Test, VEC Granger Causality Test

Kaynakça

• Akdağ, S., & İskenderoğlu, Ö. (2021). The impact of global uncertainty and risks on the global tourism index. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2), 70-76.
• Aslan, H. M. (1998). Hizmet ekonomisi. İstanbul: Alfa Basım Yayım Dağıtım.
• Baggs, J., Beaulieu, E., & Fung, L. (2010). Are service firms affected by exchange rate movements?. Review of Income and Wealth, 56(1), 156-176.
• Bahar, O., & Baldemir, E. (2008). Uluslararası ticaret ile uluslararası turizm arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(4), 97-111.
• Belk, R. W., & Costa, J. A. (1995). International tourism: An assessment and overview. Journal of Macromarketing, 15(2), 33-49.
• Chang, S. C. (2011). Intra-continental and intercontinental service trade in the travel and tourism industry. Tourism Economics, 17(5), 963–982.
• Cihangir, M., Erkan, B., & Harbalıoglu, M. (2014). The effect on current account of net tourism revenues in Turkey, European Scientific Journal, 10(13), 47-65.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427–431.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057–1072.
• Ekinci, M. B. (2005). Türkiye’nin uluslararasi hizmet ticaretindeki yeri ve mukayeseli üstünlükler çerçevesinde turizm sektörü. I.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 33, 45-67.
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
• Feyisa, H. L. (2020). The world economy at COVID-19 quarantine: Contemporary review. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 8(2), 63-74.
• Freitas, C. R. (2003). Tourism climatology: Evaluating environmental information for decision making and business planning in the recreation and tourism sector. International Journal of Biometeorol, 48, 45–54.
• Gregory, A., & Hansen, B. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 10, 321-335.
• Holden, A. (2006), Tourism studies and the social sciences. London: Routledge.
• Hu, X. (2020). The impact and implications of COVID-19 on China’s service trade. Advances in Social Science, Education and Humanities Research, 500, 228-233.
• Kabadayi, S., O’Connor, G. E., & Tuzovic, S. (2020). Viewpoint: The impact of coronavirus on service ecosystems as service mega-disruptions. Journal of Services Marketing, 34(6), 809–817.
• Kitson, M., Martin, R., & Tyler, P. (2004). Regional competitiveness: An elusive yet key concept?. Regional Studies, 38(9), 991-999.
• Kumudumali, S. H. T. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on tourism industry: A review. MPRA Paper No. 102834. University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Ozili, P., & Arun, T. (2020). Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the global economy. SSRN Electronic Journal. 1–23.
• Pearce, D. G. (1995). Tourism today: A geographical analysis. Longman, Harlow.
• Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B.E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125.
• Phillips, P., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
• Polat, M., Alptürk, Y., & Gürsoy, S. (2021). Impact of geopolitical risk on BIST tourism index and tourist arrivals in Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2), , 77-84.
• Priyanto, A., Purnomo, E. P., Andoko, B. Q., Khairina, E., & Fadhlurrohman, F. I. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on local tourism sector and income. MIMBAR, 36(2), 383-390.
• Proenca, S., & Soukiazis, E. (2005). Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal. Centro de Estudos da Uniao Europeia Faculdade de Economia da Unversidade de Coimbra, Discussion paper: COIMBRA, 1-26.
• Qunhui, H. (2020). Impact of COVID－19 epidemic on supply side and countermeasures: Short-term and long-term perspectives. Journal of Economic Review Journal, 5, 46-57.
• Ruiz Estrada, M. A., Park, D., & Lee, M. (2020). The evaluation of the final impact of Wuhan COVID-19 on trade, tourism, transport, and electricity consumption of China. SSRN Electronic Journal, 1-13.
• Sahoo, M. (2018). Exchange rate and service exports from India: A nonlinear ARDL analysis. Economics Bulletin, 38(2), 1090-1101.
• Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and testing of co-integrated systems by an autoregressive approximation. Econometric Theory, 8, 1-27.
• Sarıkaya, F., & Çeviş, İ. (2020). Koronovirüs (COVID-19) ve ekonomik devinim. In B. Pakdemirli, Z. Bayraktar, A. N. Ünalmış & S. Takmaz (Ed.), Pandemi Ekseninde Küresel Değişim ve Yeni Ekonomik Düzen (pp. 17-32). Akçağ Publishing.
• Sengupta, J. K., & Espana, J. R. (1994). Exports and economic growth in Asian NICs: An econometric analysis for Korea. Applied Economics, 26(1), 41–51.
• Shretta, R. (2020). The economic impact of COVID-19. Retrieved from Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford.
• Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 783-820.
• TURKSTAT. (2021). Turkish Statistical Institute Database.
• Vu, J. C., & Turner, L. (2009). The economic structure of world tourism. Tourism Economics, 15(1), 5–21.
• Xin, F. (2021). Effects of COVID-19 epidemic on China's service trade and counter measures. International Journal of Advanced Engineering, Management and Science (IJAEMS), 7(1), 1–11.
• Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270.