METEOROLOJİK FAKTÖRLERİN GEMİ EGZOZ GAZI EMİSYONU KONSANTRASYONLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN İNCELENMESİ

Yıl 2020, Sayı: 001, 38 - 54, 30.06.2020

Aydın Tokuşlu

Öz

Mevsimsel değişikliklere bağlı olarak ortaya çıkan meteorolojik faktörler (hava sıcaklığı, yağış, nisbi nem, rüzgar ve hava basıncı), soluduğumuz havanın kalitesini (temiz veya kirli) etkilemede önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. Hali hazırda İstanbul Boğazı çevresinde yaşayan insanlar, geçiş yapan transit ve yerel gemi trafiğinden kaynaklı egzoz gazı emisyonları kirliliğine her gün maruz kalmaktadır. Gemi egzoz gazı emisyonları içinde insan sağlığına direk zararlı etkisi bulunan NOX, SOX ve PM emisyonları ile meteorolojik faktörler arasında bir ilişki olup olmadığının incelenmesi, meteorolojik faktörlerin emisyonların yayılmasındaki rolünün incelenmesi bu açıdan çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, İstanbul Boğazı’ndaki bir yıllık gemi trafiği emisyon konsantrasyonu (NOX, SOX ve PM) ile meteorolojik faktörler arasında bir ilişkinin olup olmadığı ortaya koyan adımsal çoklu doğrusal regresyon analizi ve korelasyon analizi yapılmıştır. Regresyon analizi sonucunda NOX, SOX ve PM emisyonları ile nisbi nem ve hava basıncı arasında “doğru orantılı” bir ilişki, yağış, rüzgar ve sıcaklık arasında “ters orantılı” bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan korelasyon analizinin sonucunda NOX, SOX ve PM ile yağış ve rüzgar arasında “güçlü bir ilişki” bulunmuş, hava basıncı, nisbi nem ve sıcaklık arasında “zayıf bir ilişki” bulunmuştur. Yağış ve rüzgarın arttığı zamanlarda kirletici konsantrasyonların etkisinin azalacağı, tersi durumda ise artacağı tespit edilmiştir. Yapılan tüm analizlerin sonucunda Boğaz çevresindeki hava kirliliğinin etkilerinin azaltılması için, transit ve yerel gemi trafiğinin hava basıncı ve nisbi nemin yüksek olduğu zamanlarda yavaşlatılmasının faydalı olacağı değerlendirilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Gemi trafiği, Hava kirliliği, İstanbul Boğazı, Meteorolojik faktörler, Regresyon analizi

INVESTIGATION OF THE EFFECTS OF METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON SHIP EXHAUST GAS EMISSIONS CONCENTRATION

Öz

The meteorological factors (air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, and air pressure) that occur depending on the seasons changes have an important effect on the quality (clean or dirty) of the air we breathe. People currently living around the Istanbul Strait are daily exposed to the pollution of exhaust gas emissions from transit and domestic ship traffic. In this respect, it is very important to examine whether there is a relationship between meteorological factors and ship exhaust gas emissions (NOX, SOX, and PM) which have a direct harmful effect on human health. In this study, a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis and correlation analysis was conducted, which reveals whether there is a relationship between the meteorological parameters and the one-year ship-borne air emission results (NOX, SOX, and PM) in the Istanbul Strait. As a result of the regression analysis, a "directly proportional" relationship between NOX, SOX and PM emissions, and air pressure and relative humidity was found and “an inversely proportional” relationship was detected between precipitation, wind and temperature. As a result of the correlation analysis, a “strong relationship” was found between NOX, SOX and PM, and precipitation and wind, and a “weak relationship” between air pressure, relative humidity and temperature. It has been determined that the effect of pollutants concentrations will decrease when the precipitation and wind increase, and vice versa. As a result of all analyses, it is considered that it will be beneficial to slow down the ship traffic (transit and domestic) in times of high air pressure and relative humidity in order to reduce the effects of air pollution around the Istanbul Strait.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vessel traffic, Air pollution, Istanbul Strait, Meteorological parameters, Regression analysis

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