The Relationship Between Shipping Demand and Macroeconomic Determinants in Türkiye: An ARDL Approach

Abstract

This study aims to identify the short- and long-run macroeconomic determinants of shipping demand in Türkiye and examine whether structural breaks alter these relationships. Monthly data spanning January 2012 to June 2025 are analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag model and an error correction model. In addition, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Zivot-Andrews, and Bai-Perron tests were incorporated to identify any structural breaks and assess stationarity. Based on the analysis of empirical results, the Industrial Production Index was determined to be the most significant long-run variable in predicting long-term shipping demand. Conversely, there is a significant negative impact of crude oil prices on shipping activity. The Baltic Dry Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty were both determined to be insignificant in predicting long-term shipping demand. However, they each had an immediate negative impact on shipping demand in the short run, exhibiting lagged response effects. The model showed that stable long-run equilibrium exists, which indicates that the model accommodates relatively rapid adjustments. There was evidence of a regime shift occurring in March 2019, which indicates a structural break in the market. This study provides empirical evidence related to maritime policy development through macroeconomic shifts to enhance the understanding of how fluctuations in the macroeconomy affect.

Keywords

• Shipping demand
• maritime resilience
• economic policy uncertainty
• industrial production index
• transport policy

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