Borsanın Covid-19 Aşı Oranına Tepkisi: Uluslararası Çalışma

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışmada, farklı ülkelerdeki Covid-19 aşılama oranları ile borsa endekslerinin performansı arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı, politika yapıcılara aşılama programlarını teşvik etmek için daha fazla kanıt sağlamaktır. Yöntemler: Çalışmada MSCI endekslerinde yer alan toplam 49 ülkenin borsa performansları ve Covid-19 aşı verileri kullanılmıştır. Ülkeler %10, %50 ve %75 aşılama oranlarına ulaştıkları tarihe göre sıralanmış ve gruplandırılmıştır. Daha sonra farklı gruplardaki ülkelerin hisse senedi getirileri arasında aşılama performanslarına göre farklılık olup olmadığını belirlemek için t testleri kullanılmıştır. Sonuçlar: Bu araştırma, Covid-19 aşılama sürecini daha hızlı yöneten ülkelerin borsalarında daha düşük oynaklığa ve daha yüksek performansa sahip olduklarını göstermektedir. Nüfusları %10 ve %50 aşılanma düzeyine daha erken ulaşan ülkelerde borsa performanslarının diğer ülkelere göre daha yüksek olduğu tespit edilmiştir. %75 aşılama düzeyine ulaşmak ile borsa performansı arasında bir ilişki bulunamamıştır. %10 aşılamayı daha erken tamamlayan ilk %25’lik dilime giren ülkelerin, son %25’lik dilimdeki ülkelere göre 31.12.2020-28.05.2021 tarihleri arasında ortalama %9,7 daha yüksek borsa performansına sahip oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Araştırma sonuçları, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için ayrı ayrı test edildiğinde de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve geçerlidir. Sonuç: Çalışmanın sonuçları, aşılamanın hisse senedi piyasalarına olumlu katkısı olduğunu göstermektedir. Araştırmada elde edilen bulguların yatırımcılar ve politika yapıcılar için önemli bilgiler sağladığı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• aşılama
• borsa endeksleri
• hisse senedi getirileri

Stock Market Reaction to Covid-19 Vaccination Rate: International Study

Abstract

Objective: In this study, the relationship between the Covid-19 vaccination rates in different countries and the performance of stock market indices were examined. The study aims to supply further evidence for policymakers to promote vaccination programs. Methods: In the study, stock market performances and Covid-19 vaccination data of a total of 49 countries in the MSCI indices were used. Countries are sorted and grouped according to the date they reached the 10%, 50%, and 75% vaccination rates. Afterward, t-tests were used to determine whether there was a difference between the stock market returns of the countries in different groups according to their vaccination performances. Results: This research shows that countries with rapid Covid-19 vaccination have lower volatility and higher performance in the stock markets. It has been determined that the stock market performances are higher in the countries which reached the 10% and 50% vaccination level of the population earlier. No statistically significant relationship was found between reaching the 75% vaccination level and the stock market performance. The first quartile of countries that completed 10% vaccination earlier have %9,7 higher stock market performance on average between 31.12.2020-28.05.2021 than the countries in the last quartile. Research results are also robust when tested separately for developed and emerging markets. Conclusions: The results of the study show that vaccination has a positive contribution to financial markets. It is thought that the findings obtained in the research provide important information for investors and policymakers.

Keywords

• Covid-19
• Vaccination
• Stock Markets Indices
• Returns of Stocks

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