THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY - ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 354 - 372, 30.07.2020

Merve Kocaman , Mustafa Özer

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.597309

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of economic policy uncertainties of EU (EPUEU) and US (EPUUS) on selected macroeconomic variables of Turkey, such as interest rate, stock prices, consumer price index, industrial production index, exchange rate by using ARDL bounds testing approach and monthly data over the period of 2002 January to 2015 December. According to results of the study, an increase in EPUUS causes a statistically significant decrease in industrial production in the long-run and an increase in consumer prices. On the other hand, an increase in EPUEU leads to increase in industrial production. Furthermore, the results show that no matter what the source of the policy uncertainties are, financial indicators of the Turkish economy are not significantly affected by changes in economic policy uncertainties of both EU and US. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate presence of both short-run and long-run causal relations between variables, particularly short-run causalities from EPUEU and EPUUS to industrial production reinforcing the results of ARDL estimates. Thus, Turkish policymakers should take into account of rising EU and US policy uncertainties when forming economic policies.

Keywords

Economic Policy Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Performance, Time Series Analysis

ABD VE AVRUPA’NIN EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİKLERİ İLE TÜRKİYE'DE SEÇİLMİŞ MAKROEKONOMİK DEĞİŞKENLER ARASINDAKİ DİNAMİK ETKİLEŞİMLERİN ANALİZİ - THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN US AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTIES AND SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN TURKEY

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Avrupa Birliği (EPUEU) ve ABD (EPUUS) iktisadi politika belirsizliklerinin, Türkiye'nin, faiz oranı, hisse senedi fiyatı , tüketici fiyat endeksi, sınai üretim endeksi, döviz kuru gibi seçilmiş makroekonomik değişkenleri üzerindeki etkilerini; 2002 Ocak-2015 Aralık dönemine ait aylık veriler ve ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımını kullanarak incelemektir. Çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik sonuçlara göre, EPUUS, uzun dönemde, Türkiye'de ekonomik faaliyetin ölçülmesinde bir gösterge olan sınai üretimini azaltırken, tüketici fiyatlarında artışa neden olmaktadır. Öte yandan, EPUEU’daki artış, sanayi üretiminde artışa neden olmaktadır. Ayrıca, sonuçlar, Türkiye ekonomisinin finansal göstergelerinin, politika belirsizliğinin kaynağı ne olursa olsun, politika belirsizliklerinden önemli ölçüde etkilenmediğini göstermektedir. Granger nedensellik test sonuçları ise hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde, değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkilerinin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Özellikle EPUEU ve EPUUS'tan endüstriyel üretime kısa dönemde nedenselliklerin olması ARDL modelinin tahmin sonuçlarını da desteklemektedir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye’de politika yapıcılarının politika oluştururken, AB ve ABD politika belirsizliklerini dikkate almaları uygulanacak politikaların başarısı açısından önemlidir.

Keywords

Ekonomi politika belirsizliği, makroekonomik performans, zaman serisi analizi

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