MAKİNE ÖĞRENMESİ İLE ULUSLARARASI MUHASEBEDE ERTELENMİŞ VERGİLERİN TAHMİNLEMESİ

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 1303 - 1326, 29.07.2022

Feden Koç Ahmet Çağdaş Seçkin Osman Bayri

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1034685

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, hisse senetleri Borsa İstanbul (BIST)'da toptan ticaret, perakende ticaret ve konaklama sektörü olmak üzere üç farklı sektörde işlem gören 31 şirketin muhtemel ertelenmiş vergi değerlerini ve TMS-TFRS kar /zararını tahmin etmektir. Bu tahmin, şirketlerin 2015-2019 yılları için ertelenmiş vergi değerlerine ve on iki temel ekonomik parametreye dayanmaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında, şirketlerin 2020 yılında yıllık finansal raporlarında sunacakları ertelenmiş vergi çıktı parametreleri aşağıdaki yöntemler kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir: 0,823 doğruluk oranı ile random forest yöntemi kullanılarak ertelenmiş vergi varlığı değeri, 0,790 doğruluk oranına sahip yapay sinir ağları yöntemi kullanılarak net ertelenmiş vergi varlığı değeri, 0,823 doğruluk oranı ile random forest yöntemi kullanılarak ertelenmiş vergi yükümlülüğü değeri ve 0,887 doğruluk oranı ile random forest yöntemi kullanılarak net ertelenmiş vergi yükümlülüğü değeri. Ayrıca, çıktı parametrelerinden olan TMS-TFRS kar / zarar değerinin 0,629 doğruluk oranı ile random forest yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin edilebileceği belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Accounting Standards-International Financial Reporting Standards (IAS-IFRS), Turkish Accounting Standards- Turkish Financial Reporting Standards (TAS-TFRS), Valuation, Deffered Taxes, Machine Learning, Artifical Neural Networks.

FORECASTING DEFERRED TAXES IN INTERNATIONAL ACCOUNTING WITH MACHINE LEARNING

Öz

The aim of this study is to estimate the possible deferred tax values and the TAS-TFRS profit/loss of 31 companies in three different sectors- the wholesale trade, retail trade and hospitality industry- whose shares are traded on Borsa Istanbul (BIST). This estimation is based on the companies' deferred tax values for the years 2015-2019 as well as twelve main economic parameters. Within the context of the study, the deferred tax output parameters, which companies will present in their annual financial reports in 2020, have been estimated using the following methods: the DTA value using the random forest method with an accuracy rate of 0,823, the net DTA value using the artificial neural networks method with an accuracy rate of 0,790, the DTL value using the random forest method with an accuracy rate of 0,823 and the net DTL value using the random forest method with an accuracy rate of 0,887. In addition, it has been discovered that the TAS-TFRS profit/loss, which is one of the output parameters, can be estimated using the random forest method with an accuracy rate of 0,629.

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Accounting Standards-International Financial Reporting Standards (IAS-IFRS), Turkish Accounting Standards- Turkish Financial Reporting Standards (TAS-TFRS), Valuation, Deffered Taxes, Machine Learning, Artifical Neural Networks.

Kaynakça

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