DIŞ BORÇLARIN SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİ PANEL EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 3, 1605 - 1629, 29.11.2022

Tuğba Akın Sevcan Güneş

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.913340

Öz

Küresel kriz ve Covid-19 pandemi etkisiyle yaşanan ekonomik daralma sonrası uygulanan genişletici para ve maliye politikaları sebebiyle borç sürdürebilirliği kavramı tüm ulusal ekonomilerin öncelikli sorunu haline gelmiştir. Bu bağlamda ödemeler dengesindeki ekonomik kırılganlıkları sebebiyle konunun özellikle Hindistan, Brezilya, Meksika, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye için analiz edilmesinin önemi artmıştır. Bu çalışmada özellikle makroekonomik değişkenlerdeki sorunlarının benzerlik göstermesi nedeniyle kırılgan beşli olarak da adlandırılan bu ülkelerin, borçlarının sürdürebilirliği Hakkio ve Rush (1991), Sawada (1994) ve Önel ve Utkulu (2006) metodolojisi kullanılarak 2001-2019 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Modelde; dış ticaret dengesi, merkez bankası döviz rezervlerindeki değişim, net cari transferler ve toplam borçlar üzerindeki faiz maliyeti (Libor ve CDS) verileri kullanılarak dış borç yaratan ve azaltan değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Panel ECM testi (Westerlund, 2007) ile incelenmiştir. Elde edilen panel eşbütünleşme katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre analiz edilen ülkeler için zayıf dış borç sürdürebilirliği bulunmuştur. Ülke bazında yapılan analiz sonuçları ise, sadece Meksika’nın dış borçlarının güçlü bir şekilde sürdürebilir olduğunu, CDS primi diğer ülkelere göre yüksek olan Türkiye’nin ise en zayıf dış borç sürdürebilir ülke olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Borç, Sürdürebilirlik, Panel Eşbütünleşme.

SUSTAINABILITY OF EXTERNAL DEBT: PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF THE FRAGILE FIVE

Öz

Expansionary monetary and fiscal policies implemented after the economic contraction brought on by the covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing global crisis caused the debt sustainability problem to become the primary concern of all national economies. Consequently, analyzing India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa and Turkey has become more important as these countries have structural weaknesses in their balance of payments. In this study, the debt sustainability of these countries, which are also known as the fragile five due to their similar problems in macroeconomic variables, was analyzed for the period of 2001-2019. The paper adopts the methodology developed by Hakkio and Rush (1991), Sawada (1994), and Önel and Utkulu (2006). In this context, the cointegration relationship between the variables that cause and decrease external debt was examined using the Panel ECM test (Westerlund, 2007). This paper utilzies countries’ trade balance, change in central bank currency reserves, net public transfers and interest rate (Libor and CDS) on total debt as variables. Results of the panel cointegration test show that the countries’ sustainability of external debt is weak. The country-level analyses show that only Mexico has strong external debt sustainability and Turkey, having the highest CDS premium among the five, has the weakest external debt sustainability

Anahtar Kelimeler

External Debt, Sustainability, Panel Co-integration

Kaynakça

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